WEEK 5

Bears at KC

44.5 PTS, Bears -9

The two worst Defenses in the NFL square off here,  both have looked HORRIBLE so far this year.  These two teams have given up an ASTOUNDING 31 combined touchdowns.  This could be a fantasy scoring bonanza!  I like KC Offense a hell of a lot more than I like The Bears.  Bears have given up 10 receiving TD’s, and I think Alex Smith will have a god game here.  This is not the same Alex Smith and Chiefs Offense we saw last year.  Smith has averaged nearly 340 passing yards the past 2 games and with an average of 145 yards going to Jeremy Maclin.  Maclin has been targeted 40 times through 4 games this season, and his chemistry with Smith gets better every game.  Maclin is probably my favorite WR this week because I think he will put up Julio Jones production at a great price reduction.  I think it’s very possible that Maclin gets 11 receptions for 135 yards and 2 TD’s.  The Smith/ Maclin combo is my favorite to picks of this game, but Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles also are primed for production this week as well.  Charles is expensive, but the man is a horse, and should be able to eclipse 125 total yards with at least a TD, The Bears Defense shut down Latavius Murray last week, but Charles is a far superior running back.  The problem with Maclin’s increased production is it has hurt Kelce’s numbers a little.  I would play one or the other, but not both.  I think both Kelce and Charles are SAFE plays in this matchup. 

KC seems to be weak in their secondary, problem is, that means you have to have faith in Jay Cutler.  If you do have faith in him, you should play him.  I do not have any faith in him, and I will not own him anywhere this week.  Matt Forte will have a productive game, he always does, but his price tag is just slightly too high for me to anchor a squad around him.  If Jeffrey doesn’t play, I like Royal as a nice cheap play.  He has benefitted nicely with Jeffrey’s absence.

 

Seattle at Cinci

43 PTS, Cinci -3

I kind of hate this entire game for fantasy purposes.  The Bengals offense has looked really solid, but The Seahwaks Defense has looked REALLY good the past two weeks now that they are at full strength.  The Seahawks don’t really have a weakness, I don’t feel comfortable playing Dalton, or Green at their price points.  Hill is boom or bust, and has a bad matchup.  If you feel the NEED to get one Bengal in your lineup, I think Gio Bernard will offer you’re the best bang for your buck.  He is still cheap and has been getting more action than Hill. 

The Bengals defense has been really good against the run, I like their defense at home.  Wilson hasn’t looked spectacular yet from a fantasy perspective, and I just don’t like the matchup.  I’m going to skip this entire game and hope for 16-20 finish. 

 

Washington at Atlanta

48 Points  Atlanta -7

This is not as cut and dry as I thought this matchup would be looking at the schedule back at Week 1.  According to the stats (and not logic), Washington’s Defense is ……..good?   Their rushing defense is actually second best in The NFL right now, and their passing Defense is top 10.  I don’t think The Falcons score 48 points this week like they did last week.  I also don’t think Freeman scores another 3 touchdowns, like he has the past 2 weeks, against this defense.  Technically, The Skins really only shut down Lamar Miller, Tre Mason, Rashard Jennings and Murray/ Ryan Mathews, so it hasn’t REALLY been proven that this run D is that great.  BUT, since Freemans is now so expensive, AND I think his ownership will still be sky high, I will not be playing him this week.  (On a side note, my choice NOT to play Freeman last week, and play Latavius Murray in his place, across the board, cost me legit $1,000’s of dollars in lost winnings.)   Matt Ryan should have a productive game, but isn’t one of my top 3 QB’s this week.  Julio Jones had dud last week, but it wasn’t his fault.  The Falcons crushed The Texans early and often and there was no need to utilize or jeopardize their best weapon in this situation.   Julio should go right back to what he does best this week, 10 grabs, for 115 yards and a TD.  If you’ve got the extra salary, it’s never a BAD idea to use Julio as your WR 1, and I have no problem with doing that again this week.  The SNEAKY play in this game, and one of my favorite plays of the week is Leonard Hankerson.  Last 3 games “Hank the Tank “ (Copywritten, Draftdemon Oct, 2015) has 225 yards and 2 TD’s.  Why I really like Hank this week is because the past two weeks, Washington’s opposing WR 2’s have been the most productive.  Riley Cooper had a game against them in Week 4, and Ruben Randle went house on them in Week 3.  If that trend continues, Hankerson could be looking at over 100 yards and a TD or 2.  TOP WR VALUE PLAY WEEK 5, Leonard “Hank the Tank” Hankerson.

 

Jax at Tampa

42 PTS  TB-2.5

Another yucky game that I want very little to do with for Fantasy purposes.  Jacksonville stinks against The Pass, and is good versus the run.  Winston is worthless and Doug Martin is a now gross Ex-girlfriend who used to be hot.  EVERYBODY is all over Vincent Jackson this week!  He is his “favorite” receiver, and they have “good chemistry”!  He had ONE GOOD GAME.  He hasn’t done JACK SQUAT 75% of the rest of the season.  He will get targets this week, but if you think that 47 year old V-Jax will be a top 3 WR this week, you are wrong.  I’m not saying he will put up a zero, but let’s settle down, 6 for 80 yards is reasonable. 

Every week I pick Hurns, Allen Robinson has a game.  Every week I pick Robinson, Hurns has a game.  So, I’m going to TELL you Hurns this week (Which really means I’m saying Allen Robinson) for a decent flex option, one of them will over produce compared to their price, they have all season long.  This will be the FIRST WEEK I will be playing TJ Yeldon.  He has looked better and better each week, and last week hit the 100 yard mark for the first time in his young career.  Tampa D has given up 137 yards per game on the ground, and therefore…………TJ “The DJ” Yeldon is my TOP VALUE RUNNING BACK FOR WEEK 5

 

 

Saints at Philly

49.5 PTs  Philly – 4.5

This is a tough one for me.  I want to play Brees, and Ingram, but I can’t.  Brees isn’t quite 100%, I like this team better at home, Philly Run Defense has been decent, it’s just adding up to a “Pass on them” type of week.  I don’t think any of them will be terrible, I just feel like none of them have the best situation to over-perform enough to justify the risk in taking them.  Don’t sit Brees in your Season leagues,  just don’t pay up for him in Fantasy this week. 

The Saints stink against opposing Tight Ends, that seems to be their weakness.  Fells, Witten and especially Greg Olsen have had really nice fantasy games against this Saints Defense.  Problem is, Philly hasn’t been using their TE’s very much at all.  Brent Celek has 2 Receptions this SEASON, Zack Ertz is utilized more in the passing game, but not by much.  One of these guys will get a TD this week, and I’ll take the guy who gets more targets, Zack Ertz is my DEEP SLEEPER TE OF WEEK 5.  Other than that, Sam Bradford could be a nice lottery ticket, and Jordan Matthews is always safe to get targeted 8-10 times, and could have a nice fantasy day

 

Rams at Packers

45.5 PTS  Green Bay – 9

Vegas says Green Bay scores 3 or 4 td’s in this game.  I have to pick on The Rams shitty Run D in this one.  Week 2 Matt Jones torched them for 123 and 2 TD’s.  Week 3 Lev Bell had 132 total yards and 1 TD,  Last week David Johnson and Chris Johnson combined for 175 yards against them.   I think this will be the first week I will pay up for Ed Lacy.  He seems to finally be 100% healthy, he’s home, I don’t think The Pack will have to throw too much to win this game.  This has second half clock management written all over it.  I’m projecting Lacy to get 2 TD’s and over 115 yards this week.  Rodgers is the most expensive QB on the board, and he needs to basically throw over 375 and 3 TDs to out preform his price, and I don’t see that happening.    Cobb is always a very safe bet to get enough points to make it worth your while, and the Cobb/ Rodgers combo is a nice way to anchor your head to head or 50/50 tournaments. 

I think everyone is going all in on Gurley this week.  I will take the “Wait and See” approach.  He looked awful the first half last week, and looked like Walter Payton circa Tecmo Bowl in the second half.  Gurley is awesome, but he has only played 2 NFL games, lets no go crazy here.  He isn’t averaging 7.7 yards per carry for the rest of the season.  HE is a great value because he is so inexpensive, I don’t blame anyone playing him, just don’t be upset we he doesn’t score 40 points this week.  The Rams should be behind the majority of this game, and will have to throw it 30 plus times.  Tavon Austin is always a great lottery ticket , but he’s just that, a lottery ticket.  Throw Austin in some GPP’s, but don’t touch him with a head to head or 50/50.

 

Buffalo at Titans

42 PTS Titans-1

I’m not going to invest too much time or energy on this game, low over/under, I don’t have much faith in either Offense, and no real STUDS in this game.  I don’t think Watkins plays, Shady McCoy is already ruled out, Karlos Williams is questionable.  Boobies Dixon might get the start, good luck with that.  I like Charles Clay, again, this week.  Titans aren’t good VS the TE, and Taylor needs to throw it somewhere, and Clay is his favorite target.  Clay is my FAVORITE TE this week, that doesn’t mean he outscores Gronk, it just means I think he scores more fantasy points per dollar than Gronk or Graham does.  

On the Titans side of things, I’m going to roll the dice on Kendall Wright this week.  Buffalo’s pass Defense isn’t great, they also aren’t as bad as most make them out to be, but Wright could be in for a monster!  2 out of 3 games this season Wright has had big games, and I still think he is hands down the most talented receiver on this team.  I like the fact that Jake targeted him 12 times last game, and Wright is so inexpensive, he will be a top play of week 5 for me.  I’m not touching the Titans running game.

 

Arizona at Detroit

45 PTS Arizona -3

Detroit does NOT have a good defense, they don’t even really have a good aspect of any part of their defense.  They give up 271 YPG through the air and 111 YPG on the ground.  Carson Palmer has looked great and so Larry Fitzgerald so there’s only one thing to do, FADE THIS GAME.  I will be probably the only person to tell you not to play Palmer.  I think everyone is going to be all over Palmer and Fitzgerald this week, and I won’t be one of them.  You always have to pick one game, do the contrary, and don’t play any of them and hope for a low scoring event, this is going to be that game for me this week.  The Lions D looked better last week, they have momentum, and Palmer tends to throw a few more INT’s in Domes, and doesn’t have great numbers against Detroit in his career.  I’m going to assume that Fitz/Palmer are going to be owned in 20% of the lineups, and I will sit back and hope that they both underperform.  I want nothing to do with The Arizona backfield regardless. 

The only person on The Lions that I would even consider to play would be Calvin Johnson, but until Matt Stafford can show me some improvement, I will pass on him.  Edelman, K Allen, and Maclin are cheaper and I think will all out produce Megatron this week.   Because I think palmer will throw some picks, I think The Lions Defense is a ballsy sneaky play and should have really low ownership. 

 

Pats at Dallas

49.5 PTS  Pats-9.5

This is the game that there will be huge ownership on, and I WILL be part of the crowd.   Dallas Defense is TERRIBLE.  Pats are coming off a bye week, and The Pats score 35 points EASY this week.  Nobody has stopped The Patriots this season, and this game should be no different.  Last week Spiller and Ingram combined for 230 yards against The Cowboys.  In week 3, Devonta Freeman almost got 200 yards against them.  This game is SCREAMING Dion Lewis to me.  Lewis is cheap, and has had some monster fantasy games this season.  Blount will steal some touches from Lewis for sure, but these short passes to the RB has destroyed this Dallas D in the past 2 games.  Take the extra points with the PPR, and put Dion Lewis in your lineup and hope Coach Bill doesn’t do something dickey.  If you want to start Blount, instead of Lewis, I can understand that as well, but at the end of the day, I think Lewis outscores Blount.  Brady is a great play, and will quite possibly be the top QB, and if you’re deciding between Brady and Rodgers, Brady is the play.  If you can save money enough to put Gronk in as your TE, do it.  Edelman, is as safe as they come in a PPR format.  Any of these guys could have a game.  Gun to my head, I will do the three man stack of Brady/Gronk/Lewis and hope The Pats score 40 Plus points on them. 

I said it last week, and I will say it again, Randle is NOT a good RB, I think it’s a mistake to play him.  Forsett, Hyde, Lewis, Gio, and even Doug Martin are cheaper than Randle and I think will outperform him.  Witten will probably catch 8 balls and maybe find the end zone, so I have no problem using him as a flex or TE.  Other than that, nope. 

 

Denver at Oakland

43.5 PTS  Denver -4.5

Denver probably has the most impressive Defense in The NFL to date.  Since The Raiders decided to play like horseshit against a horseshit Chicago Defense last week and cost me a bunch of $$ and made me look like a complete dickhead, they are dead to me this week.   Up yours Latavius. 

Oakland Defense stinks, and the best options to score you some points will come from Thomas, Sanders, and Owen Daniels.  Manning still hasn’t shown me enough to anchor my DFS squad around him yet, so I won’t be taking him or putting Thomas AND Sanders in the same lineup.  Thomas looked really good last week, and I think he has a legit shot at being the best WR on the board for fantasy this week.  Sanders is Edelman in a different uniform, and is 100% solid, but won’t get you the 30 PLUS fantasy points you need to win a big one.  You have to shoot for the moon, and the reward could come from Thomas.  Because of Julio being a bit beat up, and OBJ kind of being hit or miss thus far, Thomas will be MY top WR of the week.  Barnidge and Bennett both had really good games against this Raiders D the past two weeks, and I think Owen Daniels will score a TD this week.  He is DIRT cheap, and even if he goes 4 receptions, for 35 yards and a TD, he will be a great value play. 

 

San Fran at Giants

43 PTS Giants-7

If you’ve read my blog in the past, it’s no secret to you that I am not an Eli Manning guy.  He hasn’t looked spectacular the past two weeks from a fantasy stand point, even though he lead The Giants to back to back wins.  He only threw for 212 yards against The Bills last week, and completed a crappy 20/35.  He’s at home this week, and San Fran secondary has been pathetic.  BUT The Niners D held The packers to under 300 yards last week and Palmer threw it for 311 with 2 TD’s the week before.   The Arizona and Green Bay offense is better than The Giants, so I don’t think it’s a lock that The Giants net 500 yards this week.  Eli will produce, but just won’t be a top 5 QB in my opinion.  Beckham JR hasn’t looked ridiculous lately, and I can’t justify using him seeing that he is the second most expensive WR on the board.   Larry Donnell has been seeing a fair amount of targets, and makes for a great value play at TE.  Rashard Jennings was one play away from being an absolute ZERO last week like he has been all season, no thanks.

Kaepernick is bad, really, really bad.  I have no idea what is going on with him right now.  He has thrown 5 INT’s and a combined 220 yards the past two games.  This 49ers team is a disgusting mess right now.  Their offense is so shitty, I want nothing to do with Hyde until they can figure some stuff out.  BECAUSE their offense is so bad, THE GIANTS DEFENSE is my D of the week.  This isn’t sneaky or cute, 35% of the country or more will have The Giants as their Defense this week, me included. 

Pittsburgh at San Diego

45.5 PTS San Diego -3

FAVORITE GAME OF THE WEEK.  It’s not often that my favorite game of the week happens to be the Monday Night game.  It adds a little excitement when you have a good lineup after the Sunday night game and still have 3 or 4 guys still going the next night.  I think this game goes OVER 45.5 and will produce some fantasy studs.  My favorite RB of the week and my top overall play is Lev Bell.  Bell looked GREAT against Baltimore last week and GREAT against St Louis the week before.  Lev Bell is the best FANTASY player in all of football.  San Diego SUCKS against the run.  Bell could get combined 175 yards and 2 TD’s Monday Night.  He will be used early at often.  Mike Vick is also one of my top VALUE PLAYS at QB this week.  He made some really nice passes last week, and is still a very capable and talented NFL QB.  He is incredibly cheap, and I’m calling for 2 passing TD’s and 1 running TD.  At his price, he could really return some serious value

I also like Rivers and Keenan Allen this week as well.  Steelers Secondary is weak, and Rivers has been a yardage monster recently, with the majority of those yards going to Allen.  I think it’s going to be a fast paced high scoring game and Rivers/Allen will be busy and productive for four quarters.  Don’t sleep on Ladarius Green either, Gates is back, but isn’t getting 12-15 targets right out of the gate.  Green is a talent and should see more action than Gates.  I think the Maclin, Wright, Allen WR combo could make you a very happy and successful DFS player this week.  Good luck.  Play in our FREE $1,000,000 Perfect Lineup contest, try our Rapid Fire that everyone raves about, and get up to a $600 deposit match at www.draftdemons.com.  We are growing quickly for a reason.