WEEK 17 DRAFTKINGS / FAN DUEL ADVICE

 

Cam Newton is my best QB pick of the week.  After a really mediocre start to the season, he has really turned it on as of late.  Last 2 games he has looked really solid. His 30 PLUS point game against The Saints 2 weeks ago was impressive.  He gets The Falcons in Atlanta today, who are easily picked apart by opposing QB’s.   Luck might only play ½, Rodgers has a tough matchup, and didn’t play Detroit well earlier this season.  Manning has a dead arm, and Brees, Romo, and Brady aren’t playing for anything.  It really comes down to Newton and Matt Ryan for me, I’m riding the hot hand and going with Superman.  HE has the potential to eclipse 250 through the air and 100 on the ground today

 

AJ Green is “Banged Up” with a bruised bicep.  HOWEVER, when he played Pittsburgh a few weeks ago he had 11 receptions for 226 yards and a TD.  A lot of people will be shying away from Green today, if you want to gamble, he could be huge today.  If he can somehow replicate these numbers, AND he is only owned in 2% of lineups, you get a GIGANTIC advantage.

 

If you don’t have Lev Bell in your lineup, you won’t be winning any big tourneys.  50 points 3 weeks ago against the same Bengals team.  Pay up, find a way, he is the only player worth the high price tag today.  He is the definition of solid.

 

Odell Beckham JR. is the highest price player on Draftkings.  He has been UNREAL the past 4 weeks.  Even though he is so expensive, I think a huge % of people will pay up for him.  He has to get over 100 yards and 2 TDs to return his “Value”.  Don’t pay for him, hope he throws up a good game, I have him at 6 for 89 and 1 TD, that’s a GOOD game, but not at almost $10,000.  If he underpproduces, you have a uge advantage over the 15%-20% of people who paid for him.

 

Steven Jackson is out.  Devonta Freeman makes an awesome Value play today for cheap money.  He always has the potential to break off a huge run at anytime.

 

Don’t play ANY Patriots players today, don’t get cute

Mike Wallace has OWNED The Jets during his career, he could have a big day for a mid range priced WR. 

 

TE Scott Chandler had 6 receptions for 105 yards earler this season versus The Pats.  Tight Ends is a crap shoot at this point, save some $$, take Chandler

 

Teddy Bridgewater is a nice Value play against The Bears today.  Bridgewater has been really solid the past 3 games.  I like stacking him with Greg Jennings AND Charles Johnson for a potential huge lineup.  This also gives you a ton of $$ leftover to pay for Bell, and a Jordy Nelson or Cobb

 

The Texans are the best Defense on the board today, and they are NOT the most expensive.

 

TODAYS DRAFTKINGS NFL PLAY

This is pretty much the final big weekend in daily Fantasy, next week will have some sits, and the playoff schedule is so small, that it’s not really the same as the regular season.  This week, I’m going to do it a bit different, I’m just going to give you my entire lineup (That I will actually enter in a few contests), and see how it does.  So, after days of homework, this is my best lineup I could come up with:

 

QB- Matt Ryan- $7400

RB- Tre Mason - $4600

RB- Joique Bell -$6000

WR- AJ Green - $8200

WR- Kenny Stills - $5700

WR- Roddy White - $6600

TE- Cody Fleener - $4600

FLEX – Pierre Thomas - $3800

DST- Lions - $3100

Quick Breakdown:  Matt Ryan had his best game this season, against The Saints, The Saints Secondary is worse AT HOME for some unknown reason.  Tre Mason faces The Giants Run Defense, they stink.  Joique Bell TORE UP The Bears just a few weeks ago, I expect the same.  AJ Green, loves playing at home, and Vegas has them scoring 27 points, that has to come from somewhere, Sanu is fantasy dead, and Denver Run D is good.  Stills loves playing at home, and Brees will utilize him against a terrible Atlanta Secondary.  Roddy White is Ryans only legit weapon today (MONSTER GAME).  TY Hilton is banged up, Dallas is worst in the NFL against TE, Fleener might get 2 TDs today.  Pieere Thomas is catching more passes and producing with it, huge price difference between he and Ingram, I’ll take the value.  Lions D, The Bears are a MESS!!!!!!!!  They have already mailed it in.   Detroit crushes them today on both sides of the ball ( F you  Jay Cutler…………….I m serious this time, we are OVER)

FRIDAY NIGHTS TOP NBA DRAFTKINGS PICK

Damian Lillard -$8,500 PG Trailblazers

Lillard is a Top Tier PG at a second tier price.  Lillard should now be priced closer to Chris Paul and John Wall, but he’s $1500 less expensive.   Lillard gets San Antonio tonight and will be guarded by Corey Joseph.  You don’t have to look to far to see that last week he scored 49.5 fantasy points in the same matchup.  I predict his points will be very similar to last week, in the 47-52 range.  At $8,500 that’s a steal.

Nerlens Noel - $5,200 – PF 76ers

Noel has been averaging close to 30 minutes a game the past few contests.  Last game he put up 43.5 versus The Celtics.  He is well rested, and faces up against a TERRIBLE Charlotte D that STINKS against the PF.  Pencil him in for 33-37 points tonight.

Al Jefferson - $8,900 – C Charlotte

If anyone SUCKS against the Center its Philly.  Opposing centers destroy them with rebounds and points.  Jefferson could have an absolute monster game tonight, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Big Al puts up a 50 tonight.

Aaron Brooks- PG Bulls $3,300

Derrick Rose is out again, and Brooks will get extra minutes again.  He had a really solid game last night against a pretty good Knicks D.  Brooks had the 3-pointer going on last night and was full of hustle.  Memphis is NOT a great matchup for the Bulls, but they will score 90-95 points.  Look for Brooks to keep it going with 22-25 points tonight.  Come on…………….its $3,300.

THURSDAY NIGHTS DRAFTKINGS NBA PICKS

Brandon Knight - $6,900 PG- Bucks

Brandon Knight seems to be the only player on The Bucks who’s minutes stay constant.  Its been a complete nightmare playing Sanders, Zaza, Dudley, or even Ante because they might play 32 minutes, or they could play 18 minutes.  Jason Kidd hates Fantasy as much as Bellichick does.  Knight will play 30-34 minutes tonight, Oj Mayo is terrible, Parker is done for the season, and the big men are a mess.  Knight will have to shoot the ball tonight, and that shouldn’t be much of an issue against Darren Collision tonight and a beat up Sacramento team.  The Kings stink, The Bucks stink, that sometimes equals a good fantasy night for the few weapons available.    I expect him to score somewhere in the 36-42 fantasy points range

Joakim Noah - $7,100 C- BULLS

Noah will play tonight and I LOVE him for these following reasons:  1.  He faces up tonight against Sam Dalambert, Quincy Acy, and Jason Smith.  GROSS.  Amare is out, JR Smith is out, Carmelo is out.  2. Taj Gibson is having an ankle issue and might not play, leaving Noah with a 30 minute game even if (or when) this becomes a blow out.  Noah gets 15 pts, 15 rebounds, a couple of assists, and 4 blocks tonight.  Yes please.

Trevor Ariza - $6,500 SF- ROCKETS

It looks like Tyreke Evans will miss tonight (Check around 6:00 pm).  If he does, Austin Rivers plays starting SG, and Luke Babbitt will play all night long at SF against Ariza.  Ariza hasn’t dazzled yet this season, but he is good for 30 fantasy points a night.  I’m not sure if Howard plays full minutes tonight, Motiejunas has to deal with The Brow tonight, and Harden can only score so much, I think Ariza has one of his better games tonight.  Pencil him in for 35-38 unless Howard is restricted, and that will jump to 40-44.

Tim Hardaway JR- $5,400 SG- KNICKS

Shumpert, Amare, Carmelo, Jr Smith, all OUT tonight.  SOMEBODY has to score for The Knicks, the game isn’t going to end 96- 27.  Lets take the guy with the best matchup, Hardaway.  He faces Mike Dunleavy tonight, who might be one of the worst defenders in the league.  Hardaway will start at SF in place of Carmelo, and probably will also play SG as well with Prignoni.  Hardaway is looking at a solid 35 minutes of play and will probably finish the night with 40 fantasy points.  I cant imagine where else its coming from, it won’t be Acy, and Calderon is a chump.  I expect Jason Smith to be a great value tonight at $3,000 as well, Dalambert is not capable of playing over 20 minutes. 

Aaron Brooks- $3,000 PG BULLS

I am all in on Brooks tonight if Derrick Rose sits.  Hinrich and Brooks will split the duties tonight if Rose can’t go, but Kirk Hinrich does NOTHING even when given the chance.  Brooks can produce a fantasy point per minute on the floor, and might go assist CRAZY tonight if given the chance.  He isn’t a great play if Rose plays, but could even produce in a blow out scenario with garbage time production.  Double-Double for Brooks if he can play 25 minutes tonight (Points + Assists), that’s HUGE at $3,000

Go pick up Joseph Randle


Demarco Murray has a broken band in his hand, his status for next Sunday is in serious Jeopardy.  If you were good enough to make it to your championship round, and you got there because of Demarco, you will probably need Randle as his replacement.

WEEK 15 TOP DRAFTKINGS PICKS

 

Andrew Luck - $9,600

If you’re going to spend big on a QB I think Luck is your only real choice.  He threw for 370 and 3 TD’s last time he played Houston back in week 7.  Luck plays well at home, and Houston gets burned by the long ball.  The #1 WR when opposing Houston has done amazing all season long, if you’re going to pay for Luck, I would also pony up for TY Hilton as well.  Demon Projection: 345 yards, 4 TD’s

Jay Cutler - $7,500

Cutler faces the Saints in Chicago Monday night.  The Saints have been TERRIBLE on defense the past 4 weeks, I can’t imagine it getting any better in Chicago.  Cutler has been better lately (From a fantasy stand point) averaging 300 passing yards and 2 TD’s over the past 2 weeks.   I’ll give him slightly higher than that due to the opponent.  Demon Projection:  320 yards 3 TD’s

Blake Bortles- $5,200

I know, I know, Blake Bortles sucks, this is true.  But lets look at the positives: 1. He is facing the worst passing Defense in the NFL.  2. With Denard Robinson out, he is going to have to throw the ball 45 times.  3. He is the cheapest QB on the board.  NOT A SURE BET, but you would’ve said the exact same thing about Ryan Fitzpatrick the day he threw 6 TD’s and won a million dollars for someone.  Demon Porjection: 310 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INT

Lev Bell -$9,600

It is SHOCKING how well Lev Bell has done the past 3 weeks: 700 total yards and 5 TD’s.  He faces The Falcons who literally haven’t stopped a running back all year long.  The Steelers might also chose to keep it on the ground for the simple fact that Big Ben doesn’t play well on turf (Although nobody else in America has mentioned this and he is forecasted to throw for 400 and 3 TD).  Regardless, Lev Bell will keep it going today against Atlanta.  Demon Projection: 185 total yards and 2 TD

Justin Forsett-  $7,400

Forsett has 5oo yards and 5 TD’s in his past 5 games.  He has been as solid as they come.  HE gets JAX at home today.  The Jags are almost dead last in every running Defensive statistic.   Forsett should tare them up today.  Lerenzo Talliafero is out of the mix today as well, so no goal line garbage shananigans will occur.  Demon Projection:  140 Total yards, 2 TD

Chris Johnson - $3,600

CJ2K has a revenge game today against The Titans.  Rex Ryan is an emotional coach and plays of his player’s emotions as well, he is kind of the complete Polar Opposite of Bill Bellichick.  Johnson should get 20 touches today, and since The Titans are 100% Awful against the run, CJ2K will look like the old CJ2k.  At $3600, you can’t go wrong here.  Demon Projection: 115 Total Yards, 1 TD

 

TY Hilton $8000

SEE ANDREW LUCK (Also, last time he played Houston he had 220 yards and a TD) Demon Projection: 7 receptions, 145 yards, 2 TD

 

Keenan Allen $5,000

Philip Rivers always plays Denver good, as does Keenan Allen.  Last time these two met he had 9 receptions for 73 and a TD.  Through his brief history, Allen does well at home, and well against The Broncos, I believe and trust these trends.  Demon Projection, 8 receptions 111 yards, 1 TD

 

Marqise Lee / Allen Hurns –$3,600, $4,000

Coin flip, I have a feeling one of these guys is going to have a monster game, I’m just not sure which one.  This is the poor mans Jordy Nelson/ Cobb  Sophie’s Choice.   I am leaning towards Lee because of the $400 price difference and the targets the past 3 weeks.  Go crazy, play them both, it’s a nice option if you want to load up at the other positions

 

Eddie Lacy ain't playing this weekend.  He says he doesn't want to play if hes not 100% effective.  He didn't say he isn't going to play, but judging by his comments it isn't going to happen.  Pick up Starks RIGHT NOW to use him, or just to block your opponent.

WEEK 15 ADDS

 

Toby Gerhart- RB JAX

Bad running, going up against a good Defense.  However, DENARD ROBINSON IS DONE FOR THE SEASON with a foot injury.  Gerhart becomes the #1 guy in JAX……..yuck, but if you were counting on Robinson, you now need a back up plan, desperate times call for desperate measures

Kerwynn Williams – RB ARIZONA

Ellington done for the season, looks like Williams is the guy.  100 yards last week against a really good Kansas City run Defense.  Could be a good gamble.

Knile Davis- RB Kansas City

Purely speculative add, but if you’re a Jammal Charles owner, it’s a MUST.  Charles is banged up, and didn’t practice today, you never know, Davis IS a GREAT backup option, 100% worth adding

James Starks- RB Green Bay

Starks looked really good last week against Atlanta on limited carries.  Lacy has a hip issue, you never know, and like Davis, he is a truly talented #2 RB on the depth chart

Chris Johnson- RB NY JETS

I LOVED Jon Stewart last week the way I LOVE CJ2k this week.  He has netted 158 yards on the ground the past 2 games and has averaged 17 carries.  Revenge game this weekend against a TERRIBLE Titans Run D.  LOVE CJ2K IN DAILY FORMATS FOR SUNDAY

Charles Johnson- WR Minnesota

30 receptions, 280 yards and 2 TD’s the past 4 games.  He is the new #1 WR option for The Vikings.  Greg Jennings takes a back seat, and Patterson is dead in the water.  I actually like him this weekend against Green Bay, The Vikings sometimes pull magic out of their hat against The Packers

Marquess Wilson- WR Chicago

Brandon Marshall is out, it looks like Wilson will be next in line behind Alshon.   LOVE his matchup against The Saints in Chicago on Sunday. 

 

WEEK 14 DRAFTKINGS TIGHT ENDS AND DEFENSES

 

Jimmy Graham- $6,500

Graham hasn’t had a huge game in a while, but the good news is he is back to his old snap count due to his lingering shoulder injury.  When Graham has huge games, it’s at home.  He is at home this week against a Panthers defense that is a MESS.  I don’t like Gronk this week, and Julius Thomas is Questionable, if I’m paying for a TE, Graham is my guy.  2 TD Sunday today.

Jermaine Gresham - $3,200

Like every other week, trying to find and consistency out of a cheap TE is nearly impossible.  I like how Dalton has been targeting and trusting Gresham the past 2 weeks.  Should be a tight divisional game today against The Steelers, I like Gresham catching 6-8 balls and maybe finding the end zone. 

 

ST Louis D-  $3,600

They played GREAT the past 3 weeks,: 32, 15 and 10 points.  The 10 point outing against Denver was really impressive.  They are healthy, and playing with confidence, The Redskins are none of the above.  I don’t think The Rams will be highly owned this week, but could be the #1 scoring D.  Colt McCoy is in for a long day

Vikings D - $3,400

They face The NY Jets and Geno Smith this week at Minessota……………………………….thats all I need to say,

WEEK 14 DRAFTKINGS TOP RUNNING BACKS

Lev Bell - $9,600

He’s expensive, but worth it.  Last two games he has scored 42 and 33 Draftkings points.  This week he faces A Bengals D that gives up 125 yards per game and has given up a NFL worst 13 rushing TD’s.  I think Bell is the safest play at RB this week, he is the Aaron Rodgers of the running backs.  Bell is on a roll, and The Bengals are decent against the pass, so The Steelers will give Bell all the work he can handle.  175 total yards and 1 or 2 TD’s is not out of the question

Eddie Lacy- $7,800

Lacy will go off as well this week (I still think Bell out scores him).  Lacy is at home playing a laughable Atlanta D.  IF Rodgers goes nuts in the first half, and they have a huge lead, it might be James starks time, that’s the big reason I like Bell over Lacy.  If Atlanta stays in the game, Lacy could get 150 total yards and 1 TD, but I think a lot of the scoring in this game will be to Cobb, and Nelson.

Bishop Sankey $4,000

He actually looked decent last week against Houston, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.  The Giants stink on Defense, both through the air and on the ground.   I still think Sankey is going to have one MONSTER game this year somewhere, this might be it.  Hunter is out for season, and 1 less weapon on this team might help his carries get closer to the 20 touch range.  Call me crazy but, for $4,000 I’m willing to roll the dice.

Jonathon Stewart- $3,800

I LOVE Stewart this week.  Dangelo Williams is out, Stewart is the main running back.  When given the chances, Stewart has done well.  He plays The Saints who have been killed by Lev Bell and Forsett the past two games.  He is not going to be the top scoring RB for week 14, but $3800 is so cheap for what he could return in value.  100 total yards and 1 Td is a safe bet for him.  If you can get 20 points for $3,800, you are way ahead of the pack

WEEK 14 TOP DRAFTKINGS WIDE RECIEVER PICKS

Randall Cobb - $7,400

Like I said yesterday, Aaron Rodgers is primed for a career night against Atlanta.  400 and 4 TD’s is not a stretch at all if he plays all 4 quarters.  Like always, the question is will it be Nelson, Cobb or a bit of both.  If you’re doing multiple entries, I would try all three scenarios, if not, I would use Cobb.  Cobb is $700 cheaper than Jordy Nelson, and if we aren’t sure which way to go, I will take the cheaper guy and keep my fingers crossed.  Last 3 games 21 receptions for 265 yards,  but zero touchdowns, that will change Monday night.

Kelvin Benjamin - $6.500

17 receptions, 235 yards and 3 TD’s the past 3 games.  Is that right??  I don’t remember him being that productive the past 3 games.  Benjamin’s production has been over shadowed by Cam Newton’s terrible play recently.  Regardless, Benjamin’s price tag should be about $7,400 and it’s not.  He play the Saints in New Orleans, last game at The Dome The Saints got scorched by Torrey Smith and Steve Smith Senior Citizen.  The Panthers could be down quick in this one, they will have to throw the ball to get back into the game, and Benjamin is basically their only down-field option.  Expect the same numbers this week, 7 for 90 and 1 TD.

 Jarvis Landry - $5,600

Landry gets the best possible matchup this weekend, The Ravens NOT in Baltimore.  The Ravens have been burned all year long by wide receivers.  Landry can be a position receiver AND a downfield threat.  He is slightly more expensive than Mike Wallace, but he is worth the price difference.  27 receptions and 3 TD’s for Landry compared to 19 receptions and 2 TD’s for Wallace the past 4 games.  Landry has a shot at putting up the best numbers of his young career.

Stedman Bailey - $4,300

The Rams get a juicy passing matchup Sunday against The Redskins.  Regardless of if it’s at home or on the road, Washington STINKS against WR’s.  Bailey has been hands down the most targeted weapon on The Rams the last 2 games, and the most productive.  12 receptions, 189 yards, 1 TD against two decent Passing D’s; San Diego and Oakland.  Let’s see what he can do against a truly crappy secondary.  $4,300 is really cheap for a guy with these recent numbers going against this defense.

WEEK 14 TOP QB DRAFTKINGS PICKS

Aaron Rodgers - $9,800

If you’re playing a 50/50 and you don’t play Rodgers, you are insane.  He is the safest play of the week.  He faces the worst passing defense in The NFL, The Atlanta Falcons, who give up 285 yards per game, 15 TDs this season and 14 plays of 40 or more yards.  At home this year, Rodgers puts up 300 yards per game, has thrown 20 TD’s, and has a QB rating of an astonishing 134.4.  My only concern here is the schmuck teams, pick over factor in which The Packers have a 30 point lead going into the 4^th quarter and Rodgers sits the rest of the game.  If The Falcons can somehow keep this game close, Rodgers could have the biggest score by a QB this season.

Drew Brees - $9,100

Brees is at home, and plays The Panthers this weekend.  He has thrown 8 TD’s the past 2 games including last weeks 5 TD performance against The Steelers.  The Panthers are middle of the road when it comes to yards allowed per game at 248.  However, they have given up 22 passing Td’s so far.  One thing The Panthers do well is stop the big plays, so look for lots of 15-25 yards completions to Graham and Stills.  As long as they get in the end zone it doesn’t matter if it comes on one 60 yard bomb, or three 20 yard completions. 

Shaun Hill - $5,500

Hill might be this week’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (who was in the $1,000,000 winners lineup).  Hill had a nice game last week wuth two TD’s and a QB rating of 116, not bad for almost the cheapest QB on the board.  Last week he played Oakland, who actually are pretty good against the pass, this week he plays Washington who are terrible against the pass giving up a tied for second worst in the NFL 26 passing Td’s this season.  If you are going to go with a cheap QB, I think Hill is your guy, I also like linking him up with Stedman Bailey as a cheap WR option for double the points.  You can basically stack the rest of your lineups with, Lev Bells, Randall Cobb’s, and Jimmy Grahams with the money you saved going with this combo.  Hill is far from a sure thing, but it’s pretty tough to win the million.

WEEK 14 MUST ADDS

Kenny Stills- WR – Saints

He is still unowned in way too may leagues, if he is available in yours, pick him up.  17 receptions, 300 yards, and 2 TD’s since Brandin Cooks went on IR.  I love his matchup this weekend at home VS. Tha Panthers this week as well.  If I was a Marques Colston owner, and Stills was on my wire, I would drop Colston for Stills.

Donte Moncrief – WR – Colts

134 Yards and 2 TD’s last weekend, not bad.  He is truly a boom or bust guy.  He could get you 3 for 33 or 6 for 144.  He is a big play guy, I love The Colts remaing matchups, he is the 2^nd best option for WR;s on the wire behind Stills.

Stedman Bailey – WR – Rams

He is emerging as the most consistant WR on the Rams, kind of out of nowhere.  This offense is starting to click a little bit and I think Bailey could have a solid game this weekend versus The Skins.  12 recpetions, 189 yards and a TD in the past 2 games.  He is also a great Daily play this weekend for a cheap price.

Boom Herron- RB- Colts

192 yards, and 7 reception plus 1 TD since Bradshaw went down.  I told you to pick him up last week, if you didn’t, it’s time to.  He is the lead back, love the schedule, love his potential the next 3 weeks.  At this point Trent Richardson is an after thought.

Doug Martin – RB – Tampa Bay

Yes, lots of people dropped him, he is available in tons of leagues.  Bobby Rainey is terrible, and Simms just isn’t ready for a full work load.  He had a decent game last week, 58 yards and a TD.  He is the lead back, and that’s tough to find on the waiver wire.  YOU NEVER KNOW

Jonathon Stewart – RB – Carolina

Deangelo Williams is out, Stewart was pretty solid last week, 110 yards and a couple of receptions.  He plays New Orleans this week, look what Forsett and Lev Bell did to them the past 2 weeks.  Stewart is now worth Owning and starting now that Williams is out of the picture

Jordan Reed – TE – Redskins

Colt McCoy cant throw the ball more than 25 yards, that makes his Tight Ends very valuable.  Desean Jackson is banged up, Pierre Garcon was the worst draft pick you made this year, and Reed is coming of a monster game ; 11 targets and 133 yards.  Expect more of the same this week against a Rams D that is going to stuff Alf Morris.

Kyle Rudolph – TE- Vikings

He got a TD last week, and seems to be the only legitimate Red Zone threat that The Vikings have.  I think his targets and production go up steadily from here on out.  Very undervalued player at a position filled with pure crap.