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Denver at Detroit

45 Points, Denver -3.5

Detroit Defense

Passing 269 YPG, 3 TDs

Rushing 147.4, 2 TDs

Detroit has the second worst Defense in The NFL.  Adrian Petersen TORCHED them last week, and Keenan Allen/Rivers torched them in week 1.  Somebody is going to have a BIG game against this Lions Defense, and my guess is Demaryius Thomas will be that guy.  Thomas hasn’t had that MONSTER yet this season, but something tells me it will be today.  Thomas very well could be the #1 producing WR for week 3.  Sanders is always a safe bet to get 10 targets as well.  CJ Anderson has done nothing and splits carries with Ronnie Hillman.  Peyton Manning will produce this week, but I want to see some improved arm strength before I anchor my DFS squad around him.  This is another game where the scoring might be too spread out to really focus on any player other than Thomas.

Stafford looks awful, the running back by committee thing isn’t appealing in Detroit.  Denver’s passing Defense has been incredible, I’m not playing any Detroit Offensive players this week.  There are better options this week

Bills at Miami

41.5 pts, Miami -2.5

Bills Defense

Passing 345 YPG, 5 TD

Rushing 66 YPG, 1 TD

Most of the damage to the Bills Passing Defense came from the SHALACKING The pats handed to them last week.  Brady did his thing, and their ranking is adjusted accordingly.  In week 1, The Bills secondary shut down Andrew Luck and The Colts.  I don’t think The Bills Secondary is as bad as the numbers show.  Their Running Defense has been great, and even if Lamar Miller wasn’t Questionable with an ankle, I would still avoid him like cancer.  Tannehill is an option, but I’m not in love with him.  I’ll go with Jarvis Landry to be the star of the game and put him right with Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, and Edleman.  Like I said, I think the Bills have a bum rap because of Week 2, I don’t love Miami offense this week, other than Landry, and Vegas agrees.

Miami is worse against the RUN then they are against the Pass.  McCoy looked better last week, but I still don’t have enough faith in him to play him yet, Karlos Williams will still cut into his carries.  Nobody on the receiving core of Buffalo interests me this week either. 

Chicago at Seattle

45 points  Seattle -15

Chicago Defense

Passing 187 YPG, 7 TDs

124 YPG, 2 TDs

I’ll save you the suspense, Bears Defense is a joke.  Seattle is 0-2, and this is a statement game for them.  Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham, and Doug Baldwin could all have big games.  Lynch is a game time decision with a calf injury, and it wouldn’t shock me if they let him sit.  They don’t need him to win this game.  Wilson WILL throw TD’s, he is the safest play of the bunch, and one of my top 3 QB’s this week.    Baldwin has been known to disappear sometimes in his career, and that could kill your lineup.  Top Defensive play of the week is probably Seattle as well.    Using the perfect combo of Seattle, Arizona, and New England players this week might be the key to serious $$

I want no part of The Bears offense this week, including Forte. 

San Fran at Arizona

44.5  Arizona -6.5

49ers Defense:

Passing 273 YPG, 3 TDs

Rushing 77.5 YPG, 3 TDs

This game screams Carson Palmer to me.  49ers Defense made The Vikings look foolish in week 1, but then got OBLITERATED by The Steelers last week.  Antonio Brown had a MONSTER last week, and somebody on Arizona should do the same Sunday.   I have to go with the hot hand in this situation, and in my opinion, Palmers best weapon, Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitzy went MENTAL last week in Chicago with 115 yards and 3 TD’s.  IF you can find a way to put in Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, and Julian Edleman as your 3 Wr’s this week, I think you’re golden.  Palmer should throw for 350 with three or four Td’s, with two of them and over 100 of those yards to Larry Fitzgerald.  I’m not touching The Arizona running game.

Cardinals Defense:

Passing 273 YPG, 3 TD

Rushing 81.5 yards

Kaepernick isn’t a terrible play, he will have to throw if they go down quickly, and could have a nice game.  I have no problem playing him at his current price.  I also like Torrey Smith who is coming off a big game as his best WR option.  Carlos Hyde was banged up last week and came back down to earth, but I am a believer in this kid.  Arizona Run Defense is top 5 so far, but I will put his production in the Latavius Murray range, and can’t argue throwing him back in your lineup.  I also think his ownership % will be down. 

Atlanta at Dallas

44 Points, Atlanta -1.5

Atlanta Defense

Passing 313 YPG, 3 TD

Rushing 80 YPG, 2 TD

Atlanta has been BURNED by QB’s and WR’s this year and last year.  Brandon Weeden will start for Tony Romo, and he is so cheap, throwing him in your lineup is not a terrible Idea.  He won’t throw for 400 yards, but he could throw 2 or 3 TD’s on Sunday.  Terrence Williams will be a popular play, and he should produce, but Jason Witten is the play for me.  Witten should see a ton of targets, and find the end zone twice this week.  I think Witten offers the most bang for the buck at TE .  I’m staying away from Dallas RB’s because they aren’t good, and Atlanta’s Run D isn’t terrible.

Dallas Defense has looked AMAZING so far.  They SHUT DOWN Bradford last week , and shut down Beckham JR week 1.  I can’t recommend paying up for Julio Jones on Sunday.  The guy is a beast, but he is so expensive, I put him in Gronk territory.  Jones won’t be shut down, but I don’t see him having that 140 yard, 10 catch, 1 TD performance.  There are too many other WR’s in better positions in week 3.  Devonta Freeman looks ok, but Dallas has given up 53 YPG so far to RB’s. 

I like pairing Weeden and Witten for cheap money and STACKING the rest of your lineup with studs in GPP tournaments. 

Indy at Titans

47 Points, Indy -5

Indy D

Passing 219 YPG, 3 TD

Rushing 124 YPG, 2 TD

Titans Defense

Passing 169 YPG, 4 TD

Rushing 104 YPG, 1 TD

I’m going to skip it.  Mariota, looked good week 1, average week 2.  Sankey looked good week 1, less than average last week.  Wright looked good week 1, terrible last week. 

The Colts haven’t been able to figure it out yet this year.  They aren’t as bad as they have played, but I’m not ready to plug in anyone yet.  TY Hilton is probably more healthy, so he could take away Moncrief’s targets.  I’m not a believer in Frank Gore, and The titans Defense has looked ok.  There are too many question marks with both teams, the risk isn’t worth the reward this week, I can’t find any good plays on either team.  Next.

Oakland at Cleveland

41 Points,  Browns -4

Oakland Defense:

Passing 326 YPG, 4 TD’s

Rushing 118 YPG, 3 TD’s

Oakland is PROBABLY the worst Defense in the NFL.  They stink against the pass, and the rush.  On paper, Travis Benjamin is the player who is apt to have a game here.  He had a 89 yards and a TD last week, and will be widely owned.  I’m going to shy away from him.  The problem is he got that production on 3 catches, that doesn’t make him a safe play, or even a sure thing.  He will be widely owned, because he is cheap, he could have 4 catches for 40 yards when all is said and done.  Cleveland will score, but I don’t see it coming from Benjamin.  The guy I’m willing to roll the dice on this week is Isaiah Crowell.  He had a nice game last week and outplayed Duke Johnson.  I think Cleveland will run the ball a bunch, and if Crowell gets the bulk, he could be in for over 100 yards and a TD.  At his price, that is a great value play.  Crowell is my favorite play this week at the low end RB position

Cleveland Defense:

Passing 199 YPG, 4 TD’s

Rushing 166 YPG, 2 TD’s

I like Cleveland’s secondary, I can’t recommend Cooper this week.  Latavius Murray is solid, Cleveland is worse against the run than the pass.  Murray is a nice mid ranged option this week and should get plenty of carries.  He should find the end zone once, maybe twice, and hover around the 100 yard mark. 

 

Jaguars at Patriots

48 points  Pats-14

Pats Defense:

Passing 259 Yards, 4 Td’s

Rushing 147 yards, 3 Td’s

The Patriots Defense isn’t good.  Pats are currently bottom 5 in the NFL for total yards and touchdowns allowed. BUT, The Jags Offense is pretty piss poor as well.  The Jags might get destroyed by New England on Sunday, but they will score some points.  TJ Yeldon hasn’t shown much yet, but he does catch balls which is nice in a PPR format.  Problem is, if The Pats score often and quickly, which they tend to do at home, The Jags are going to have to throw the ball a ton.  Allen Robinson had 155 yards with 2 TD’s last week against Miami, and Bortles was just letting him make the plays.  Allen Hurns was the most productive WR in week 1 for Jax, but didn’t have a great numbers game last week.  I’m ok playing Yeldon this week because of his price, if the Jaguars, by some act of God, can keep it close, he should have a productive day.  He is not a SAFE play, but I don’t think he will be widely used for DFS purposes either, making him sneaky.  In regards to WR’s for The Jags, Allen Robinson could have a big game, it’s possible, he’s done it in the past, Pats D isn’t good, and Robinson is certainly the most TALENTED WR on the squad.  Allen Robinson is a lottery ticket, but he is the kind of play that could skyrocket you up the standings if he brings his A game.  I will probably mix, Yeldon and Robinson is a few of my Lineups this week.

Jags Defense:

Passing 251 YPG, 3 TD’s

Rushing 73.5 YPG, 0 TD

The obvious, is Brady at home.  Yes, he does it every week.  Play him if you want to spend big money at QB.  I’m going to pass on Gronk, Jags shut down Greg Olsen in week 1, and did a good job against Cameron last week.  I’m not saying Gronk wont have a big game, but he needs over 100 yards, 8 receptions, and 2 TD’s to justify his salary.  There are too many cheap Tight Ends I like this week.  Julian Edleman is the play here.  Edleman is the safest WR on the board this week.  He is always good for 9 receptions, close to 100 yards, and a TD, and I don’t see this week being any different.  Dion Lewis is still cheap enough to throw him in your lineup as well. 

On a side note, being from Boston, and watching The Pats for years, SOMETIMES the Pats play bad and are unprepared for crappy teams.  It seems like each year there is always 1 or 2 games the Pats put up a stinker in a situation that looks like a slam dunk.  Last Year, they almost lost to Oakland and Brady was GARBAGE.  I believe the spread and line was almost identical.  I am NOT going all in on The Pats this week.  IF the pats have THAT game on Sunday, and you roster NONE of them, your odds of finishing in the money GREATLY increase.  I’m not saying that’s going to happen here, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take with a few lineups.

Philly at Jets

47 points Philly -2

Eagles Defense:

Passing, 270 YPG, 3 TDs

Rushing 107 YPG, 0 TD

If you’re going to attack Philly, it’s no secret that their weakness is their secondary.  Julio Jones BURNED them for 9 catches for 141 yards and 2 TDs in week 1.  Last week they played a partial game against Romo, but still gave up numbers to Terrance Williams and Witten.  I don’t think Chris ivory will play (check back before kickoff) but I’m 80% sure he is a no go.  Powell would be in line for the bulk of the workload, but he might give up some carries to Zac Stacy.   Even if Ivory sits, Im not comfortable playing either Jets RB.  Eric Decker is also Questionable, but from everything I ve heard, don’t count on him playing either.  This is setting up for a Brandon Marshall bonanza.  Through two games, Marshall has 13 receptions, 163 yards, and 2 TD’s, he’s also been targeted 19 times WITH Decker out there.  If Decker is a no-go, Marshall should get 15 targets and a possible MONSTER day.  Brandon Marshall is the best WR option this week in the second tier.  He will be owned EVERYWHERE, but I’m not going to do the “Contrarian” play with him, he will be in almost all of my lineups.  Projection:  11 Receptions, 134 yards, 2 Td’s

Jets Defense:

Passing 233 YPG, 2 TDs

Rushing 98 YPG, 0 TD

Sam Bradford looked like GARBAGE last week in Dallas.  Jordan Matthews had a solid game, but didn’t break any records either.  This Jets defense is far superior to The Cowboys.  Every time I go against Vegas, I’m wrong, but I just don’t see Philly scoring 20 or more points.  How The Eagles are only a 2 point dog in this game, I don’t get it, maybe I’m wrong.  Jets Defense looked SUPERB against Indy last week, Philly is coming off a bad game, I’m not playing ANY Eagles this week in my lineups.  Again, Vegas says I’m wrong, but I have to go with my numbers on this one.  If you’re a betting man, I’d put some $$ on The Jets -2

Tampa Bay at Houston

40 Points  Houston -3.5

Tampa Bay Defense:

Passing 202 YPG, 5 Td’s

Rushing 114 YPG, 3 Td’s

Houston Defense:

Passing 205 YPG, 5 Td’s

Rushing 134 YPG, 1 Td

I’m going to go ahead and recommend nobody from either team.  This has the makings of a Sunday Snoozefest.  On the Houston side, Hopkins is banged up, Polk and Blue are splitting carries and doing NOTHING with their carries.  Tampa Defense looked AWFUL week 1 against The Titans, but looked pretty good against a beat up Drew Brees in New Orleans. 

On the Bucs side of things, I’m just not a believer in this offense.  Doug Martin is getting the majority of the work in the backfield, but just producing pedestrian numbers.  Vincent Jackson might get 5 for 80.  Mike Evans got targeted 3 times last week and had zero receptions.  There will be some turnovers in this game, either Defense is a decent play, but I want nothing to do with either offense to be honest.  Tampa Bay wins the game 20-13. 

San Diego at Vikings

45 points Vikings -1

Chargers Defense:

Passing 223 YPG, 5 TD

Rushing 122 YPG, 1 TD

This game is SCREAMING Adrian Petersen to me.  It’s time to pay up for him.  He looked solid last week netting 190 total yards of offense.  He would have had a bigger game if he had not fumbled at the goal line as well.  AP has faced The Chargers twice in his career and has averaged 197 YPG.  That is insanity.  Petersen could get 30 carries on Sunday, and since Abdulah averaged 7.1 ypc in week 1, and Gio Bernard averaged 6.2 ypc last week, I have no choice but to make AP my #1 RB of Week 3.  I also like Kyle Rudolph who has been getting a good amount of targets thus far this season as well.  The Chargers gave up big points to Ebron in Week 1, and Eifert last week had a productive fantasy day.  Rudolph gets 90 with a TD, and AP gets over 170 yards (combined) and 2 TDs.

Vikings Defense:

Passing 225 YPG, 2 TD’s

Rushing 134 YPG, 2 TD’s

I can’t gauge how good or bad this Vikings defense is yet.  They made Carlos Hyde look like OJ Simpson in week 1, but did a great job containing The Detroit running game last week.  I like Melvin Gordon, he could have a nice game, I just don’t LOVE him yet.  I can understand playing him this week, I just think there is more appealing options.  Rivers traditionally does not play well indoors, and throws a ton of interceptions inside.  Ladarius Green is questionable with a concussion, and there are far too many better WR options this week to consider Keenan Allen.  Vikings Defense/Special Teams have been known to go FANTASY MENTAL a few teams each year, perhaps it’s this Sunday……………

Steelers at Rams

48 Points Steelers -1

St Louis Defense

Passing: 205 YPG and 2 TD’s

Rushing: 153 YPG and 2 TD’s

Where is this Powerhouse Rams Defense??  They have looked like Swiss Cheese the first two weeks.  Their secondary has been good against the WR’s, but they have been awful against Running Backs, and Tight Ends.  Vegas says The Steelers will score 3 or more TD’s, and I have to assume that the bulk of this will come on the ground, with a mix of TE and WR.  Lev Bell is back in action this week, but he could be rusty and splitting carries with Dangelo Williams.  This might be the week I’m not all over Antonio Brown, it looks like they don’t need to target him 15 times to win this game.  PLUS, in 17 games on turf Antonio Brown only has 3 TD’s.  Turf ain’t Brown’s thing.  Oddly enough, Wheaton traditionally has had better games on turf compared to grass.  Big Ben plays fine on turf, and he should have an ok game, but not a big fantasy numbers game.  I think the offensive production in this game will be spread out.  Steelers may score 4 TD’s, but it could be split between Bell, Wheaton, Williams, Brown, and Miller.  If you’re looking for a good value play, I think Wheaton might be just sneaky enough to get you 80 yards, 5 catches and a TD.  Because of everybody else’s price tag, I’m going to look elsewhere. 

Pittsburgh is weak in their secondary, their run Defense looks good, although we really only got to see it last week because The pats didn’t run in week 1.  The Steelers stuffed Carlos Hyde pretty good last week and the split carry situation between Mason and Gurley makes me want to take a pass on it.  So who is the best WR option in St Louis?  I have no idea, at this point, neither do they.  Jarred Cook, however has been getting the most targets each week, and looks like their most reliable weapon.  Steelers gave up big numbers to Gronk in week 1, and decent numbers to Vern Davis last week.  I think Cook is a nice Tight End play this week, and should see plenty of targets.  Projection: 8 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD

Saints at Carolina

45 Pts  Carolina -3

Saints D

Rushing:  130 YPG and 2 TD’s

Passing:   250 YPG and 4 TD’s

Saints’ Defense is NOT good.  They are giving up 380 YPG, 8^th worst in NFL.  Carolina will score on these guys.  I have zero faith in a healthy Jon Stewart, this week he is banged up, I am staying away from the running aspect of this game.

I think Cam Newton is the top play of this game.  It’s hard to pin point what receiver option might be best for DFS purposes because it has been so sporadic.  Oddly enough, Ted Ginn JR has been their most reliable weapon through 2 games, I recommended him last week, I’ll do it again.  He is always capable of getting that 40 yard bomb for a TD because of his speed.  Greg Olsen can always have a good game, but I just need some more consistency from him before I’m ready to pay up for him.  There will be scoring, and Cam Newton will be part of it, Newton is a great play this weekend.  Projection:  215 yards passing, 2 TDs, 84 yards rushing, 2 Td’s. 

I’ll save you the suspense.  Panthers Defense are TOP 5 in NFL.  The Saints Offense doesn’t play as well outside a dome, and Drew Brees is a HUGE question mark this week.  He is beat up, questionable to play, and even if he does, he won’t be at 100%, and he has a tough matchup.  That entire offense revolves around Brees, I will pass on every New Orleans offensive player this week.  It’s just too risky, and the ceiling on any of these guys is not high enough to justify it. 

 

Bengals at Baltimore

44 pts   Ravens -1.5

Bengals Defense:

97.0 yards per game rushing

203 yards Passing but 4 td’s

Don’t like the Ravens run game, Las Vegas says they score 3 td’s, my guess is short passes, probably to Crockett Gillmore.  Last week, Gillmore had  5 receptions  for 88 yards and 2 td’s vs Oakland.  He was targeted in week 1 vs Denver.  The TE looks like where The Bengals are most Vulnerable.  Crockett Gillmore should have a productive day.  Projection: 7 for 78 and 1 TD

Baltimore Defense:

250 yards per game passing plus 3 TDs

83 yards per game rushing / 1 TD

The Ravens Run Defense is good.  That, paired with the fact that it’s impossible to predict the workload for Jeremy Hill or Gio Bernard this week, is enough to make me skip the entire situation.  Gun to my head, I’ll play Gio, but that’s because he is cheaper than Hill. 

Ravens Secondary looked TERRIBLE against Oakland last week.  Michael Crabtree had 9 catches for 111 yards and 1 TD, and Amari Cooper had 7 catches for 109 yards and 1 TD.  I think this will be AJ Greens first BIG game of 2015.  The Bengals will look at what Oakland did last week and attack with their WR’s.  AJ Green might be an elite WR this week.  Projection: 10 Receptions, 143 yards, 1 TD

A BREAKDOWN OF TONIGHTS MLB Starting Pitching

The Quick and Dirty Version

Madison Bumgarner- SF       I can’t do it.  Vegas has him as the biggest favorite, and he will get the win, but I don’t LOVE his numbers enough to justify him being the most expensive option tonight.  111k’s in 133 innings lifetime against Arizona.  Good numbers for sure, but it has to be at least a K per inning for me to pay top dollar.  Last time against Arizona, 5.0 innings, 3 k’s, 1 ER.  The D-Backs offense has been slumping lately, but I get nervous facing Pollock and Goldschmidt regardless, I’ll look elsewhere

Zack Greinke- LAD                 Nah.   Greinke is good at home, The Pirates Offense has been piss poor lately, but Greinke has a career 5.37 ERA vs The Pirates.  That, along with the fact that The Pirates don’t strike out too much against right handed pitching , is enough for me to pass on Zack

Chris Sale- CWS                     Yeah, why not.   Sale hasn’t been sharp in his last couple of starts, and that’s enough to keep his ownership down tonight.  When Sale is ON, he is arguably THE BEST strikeout pitcher in MLB.  Cleveland strikes out a lot against Lefties, and this is going to be a Brilliant play or a complete disaster.  He is a RISKY play tonight, but his upside is so huge, I think he’s worth the gamble.  If he is on, he will be the highest producing Pitcher in DFS tonight, “IF”.

Jose Fernandez- MIA                         I’ll Pass.   Fernandez is NASTY.  Washington strikeout a lot, but there is no way they can let him pitch more than 6 innings tonight, if they do, everyone in the organization should be fired.  I need my SP’s to be able to throw 8 innings minimum to be considered for a GPP play.  He will produce, but the pitch count will scare me too much

Max Scherzer-WAS                PROBABLY   He just pitched a great game against The Marlins last week in Miami.  Miami doesn’t strikeout at a crazy pace, but their offense doesn’t scare me either.  I would say he is SAFER than Sale, but has a lower ceiling with the strikeout potential tonight.  If you’re playing 50/50’s or head to heads, Scherzer is probably the guy to anchor your team

M. Tanaka- NYY                     YES.  Tanaka has looked like a BEAST his last two starts, He is undervalued tonight, I can’t see the Mets beating on him tonight.  The Mets strikeout a lot against Righties, their offense is cooling off, 8 innings, 1 ER, and 8 K’s is quite possible for him tonight.  Good GPP play for the price.

 

Verlander/Cueto                   HEADACHE.  The weather looks tricky, thunderstorms in the middle of the game, these guys have both been on a rollercoaster of highs and lows this season, both look terrible recently.  Cueto is so cheap compared to where he has been all season, but I just can’t get burned by him or mother nature tonight with all the other options.  Let someone else deal with it.  I wouldn’t be FLOORED if Cueto straightned it out and threw a gem, but I can’t bet on that.

Drew Smyly -TB                     I HAVE TO.   The name is scary still.  I’m waiting for the floor to fall out, but it hasn’t yet.  If you’re a numbers player, you HAVE to put Smyly in your squad tonight.  Last game, he threw was against Boston: 6 innings, 11 K’s, 0 ER.  He plays Baltimore tonight at home, last game versus Baltimore: 7 innings, 10 K’s 0 ER.  How about Career vs Baltimore: 34 innings, 39 K’s, 0.79 ERA, 0.74 WHIP.  I have tried to talk myself out of how much I LOVE Smyly tonight, but I can’t.  Anything can happen in MLB, nothing is certain, but I have to look at those numbers, plus The Orioles home/away splits and K rate, and I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY DREW SMYLY TONIGHT

Everyone else                         NO.  Fiers, just got rocked.  Matz is too young and inexperienced.  Porcello is Porcello and I would have to be on bath salts to pay money for him to be on my team.   Ian Kennedy is pitching in Colorado.  Paxton will get rocked tonight.  Heaney is playing Minnesotta at home, I always avoid that situation due to the numerous times I have gotten burned this year.  Gallardo is 76 years old and Seattle’s Home Run potential scares me. 

 

Love Always,

The Draft Demon 

 

 

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