NBA Value Plays 11/16/15

PG- Mario Chalmers

Chalmers isn’t a GREAT value play , because he’s not going to get you 40 points tonight.  However, he is pretty much minimum price across the industry, and I expect him to play 22-26 minutes tonight.  Both Memphis and OKC are playing back to back sets and the second unit might get a few extra minutes tonight.  OKC doesn’t do a good job against opposing PG’s, and I’m going to pencil Chalmers in for 25 points tonight.  In the past 3 games, Chalmers has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per minute.  If you want to get Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Harden in tonight, you need a few value plays like this to make it work. 

 

SG – Monta Ellis

George Hill and Stuckey are OUT tonight.  Monta Ellis will take over at point guard.  Last week, if it was the same situation, I wouldn’t have suggested Ellis because his shooting was TERRIBLE.  Now, he looks like he is regaining his old form and should see 35 minutes tonight against Rose.  Ellis might FILL UP the stat sheet tonight, hes going to have the opportunity to put up numbers, you just have to PRAY he finds his stroke early.  This is a true boom or bust play, but since he is priced middle of the road, and has the POTENTIAL to match Jimmy Butler’s numbers tonight, at 2/3’s the price, it might be worth it.

 

SF- Jeff Green

I know, this one isn’t very “Sneaky”.  Green has earned himself a place in the starting rotation.  He has a MONEY matchup tonight because OKC can not stop the SG’s or SF’s.  The last 2 games Green has score over 30 fantasy points each time.  He is still bottom of the barrel price, I don’t love the SF position tonight (Other than George), if you’re gonna punt, Green gives you price relief, with the potential of still getting you somewhere around 30 points.  He’s going to be highly owned, but its silly NOT to put him in there at his price.  Let the others get cute and fade him.

PF- Terrence Jones

Jones TORE IT UP Saturday with 26 pts, 1 stl, 1 assist, 3 blocks in 40 minutes.  His price is still mid-range and I love his matchup tonight.   Vegas say’s Houston scores a lot of points tonight, and I expect a decent chunk of that to come from Jones.  He will go up against Amir Johnson, or Sullinger, regardless, neither of them can play defense.  I would LOVE to see what Jones can do if he can get 35 minutes tonight.  After looking at everyone else’s predictions, apparently I’m the only one who thinks he has a monster game tonight, but I have to go with my numbers and predictions, I think Jones finishes in the Top 3 at PF when all is said and done.  I can’t talk myself out of it.

 

C – Ian Mahinmi

This guy is cheap, and has a GREAT matchup.  Indiana is thin tonight, and I think The Pacers will pick on Noah and Gasol’s inability to stop anyone.  The Bulls SUCK at rebounding, and opposing Centers have beat them up all season long(and last season too).   I think Mahinmi gets a double-double tonight if he can stay on the court for over 27 minutes.  At that price, that’s HUGE value.  Howard is the expensive guy to own, Zaza is the mid range, and Big Ian is the top “Value” play.

15 NBA DFS Predictions

        Meyers Leonard probably won’t tonight, get Moe Harkless in there CHEAP

            Marc Gasol probably won’t play tonight, go contrarian and play JyMychal Green, not Wright in big GPPs

            In the OKC game, Durant returns more points per dollar than Westbrook tonight

Pau Gasol is a value tonight

Rubio will score close to 40 Fantasy points tonight

Andrew Wiggins is a sneaky play, he hasn’t produced YET, but his MPG and Usage rate are sky high

Deron Williams out produces Conley and Rose tonight. 

Marvin Williams is STILL a value even though his price has risen slightly

Dirk scores 35 Fantasy Points tonight

Alec Burks is the best value at SG tonight

Gobert is hands down the best Center of the night

Nobody on Denver is worth starting tonight………….nobody

Lillard’s numbers are A LOT closer to Westbrooks numbers than price suggests.  Take the value

Z-Bo has a 15-15 Double-Double tonight.

Mudiay scores 30 Fantasy Points tonight

 

 

WEEK 9 QB’S

Tom Brady- Brady should be the top scoring QB this week.  This is NOT a great week for QB’s, and in situations like this, there are really only a few safe ways to go, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben.  On paper, this matchup is NOT as easy as The Miami game last week.  The Skins only give up 232 YPG and have given up 11 passing TD’s.  Washington is worse VS the run averaging 128 YPG but only 4 TD’s.  I think Brady will throw 3 or 4 TD’s, but will be held to around 300-320 yards.  I like pairing him up with Lewis this week after seeing what Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman has done to this squad in the past couple weeks.   The lack of rushing TD’s makes me like Gronk as well.  On paper, The Skins have been pretty good against opposing TE’s, but Its Gronk and Brady, at home.  Don’t over think it.  As always, Edelman is as solid as a WR you can possibly roll with.

 

Phillip Rivers-  Monday night football, Prime Time, at home, Rivers will light up the Bears D.  The Bears have given up 16 passing TD’s this year and only 2 rushing TD’s.  Melvin Gordon doesn’t even factor in the equation anymore.  The Chargers will score, and it will be through the air.  I LOVE Malcolm Floyd this week especially since Allen is done for the season.  Stevie Johnson is cheap and should get over 7 targets.  Watch the status of Gates, but I like Green regardless if Gates is a go.  My only concern is a BLOW OUT factor (The Pats game could be the same)  If The Chargers are up by 27 points in the 3^rd quarter, they might just start juicing the clock and keeping the ball on the ground.  If they can keep it close, Rivers COULD out-produce Brady this week.    The Rivers/ Floyd/ Green stack is A LOT cheaper than Brady/Gronk/ Edelman !!!

 

Dave Carr-  You gotta throw ONE lottery ticket in there, why not Carr?  Carr had a very productive game against SD two weeks ago and DESTROYED The Jets throwing for 333 Yards and 4 TD’s with no picks (If you say You saw that one coming, you are a “Liar”)  Pittsburgh is in the bottom 3^rd for pass defense, and can be scored on.  I don’t trust Lat Murray, so I think Carr is going to throw in this game.  I also expect Pittsburgh to score, so we are talking a possible shoot out or throwing 40 times because they are playing from behind.  Carr/ Crabtree/ Cooper is my SNEAKY STACK of Week 9.  

NBA VALUE PLAYS 11/3

I feel like everyone gets together and tells each other in the industry their “Value Plays” for that night and the same 5 people give you the same 3 or 4 players.  Well, I will skip Morris, and Cauley-Stein and Hibbert, I will try to give you some SNEAKIER plays that hopefully the others might miss.

 

My top Value Play tonight is going to be Evan Fournier.  He is really cheap, and the beauty is he has averaged 35 MPG the past 3 games.  He will face a BEAT UP Pelicans squad and should see 30 minutes of action tonight.  Anytime you can find a player who is more than half the price of the big $$ guys, who plays 30 minutes, It’s a value.  Fournier has also averaged 30 fantasy points the last two games, if  you want to put Drummond and The Brow in your lineup tonight (you should), put Fournier in your Guard spot of flex.  If he can get you close to 30 points at his current price, you are golden. 

I also like Matt Barnes tonight. Memphis got SMOKED last night, and they traveled today to play against a Kings team that sucks on defense.  Barnes is pretty hit or miss, and he will never get you 40 points, but if he can see 22 minutes of action tonight, and get you 20-25 fantasy points, he is an extreme value.

Jameer Nelson will be on the floor for 23-27 minutes against a Lakers squad who has been terrible against opposing PG’s for the past 3 years.  Nelson is a veteran who can get steals, points, assists and even rebounds.  PG isn’t wonderful tonight anyway, save at PG and spend like crazy on your bigs tonight.  I think Nelson nets 30 fantasy points tonight.