3/31/16

 

Crazy night AGAIN tonight because of resting players , and huge point spreads.  Don’t bother playing 50/50’s, because you are either going to nail it tonight with your lineup, or fail miserably. 

 

Both JR Smith and Kyrie Irving are Game Times tonight because of illness, they SHOULD smoke the Nets (Especially with Lopez Out), so they might just rest them regardless.  Love, Tristan, and Lebron are all in GREAT position tonight, and I like Lebron coming off a rest.  Unless it’s a total blowout, and Lebron doesn’t play the 4^th, I would say he is SAFE for 45 points, that doesn’t happen very often.  He is the stud to start at SF tonight, and just hope The Nets can keep it within 15 points.   Shane Larkin is a nice punt tonight at PG (especially if Delledova gets the start), and Thomas Robinson is coming off a monster game against Orlando.  Both of them are risky, but are so cheap they are worth the gamble.

 

Orlando is a MESS, I’m not touching anyone on the team.  Illysova and Vucevic are both back tonight and will eat into Gordon and Dedmons minutes.  Oladipo doesn’t play well (stats wise) against Ellis.  Elf has been on a boom streak, but I’m gonna skip him tonight on a bull shit hunch I have.  I like Paul George, I like George Hill, and I like Monta Ellis.  Vegas has The Pacers scoring a lot, so there will be some production for sure.  The player that really sticks out for me is Mahinmi.  Orlando is BY FAR the worst team in the NBA against Centers lately.  Big Ian has seen minutes consistently in the 30’s, and has been on a 30 PLUS fantasy point streak for the past 3 games.  I think he gets somewhere between 30-38 tonight. 

 

I love Harden tonight, even when he plays “bad” he still gets you 45 points.  Good matchup tonight for The Rockets against a Bulls squad that legit can’t play D, anywhere.  I like Beverly as a big value play tonight, I hate Ariza every night, and Howard will either get you 25 tonight or 55.  There’s too much value elsewhere at Center tonight for me to pay up for him.  My “SUPER SNEAKY 0.6% OWNED PUNT VALUE DON’T DO IT BECAUSE ITS STUPID AND WON’T WORK PLAY” tonight is Motiejunas.  His minutes are down, he looks like crap, but I will take a one of my bullshit hunches on this and hope he can get me a sneaky 20-25 points at minimum salary.  (I am NOT advising you to do this, it’s a bad idea)

 

Two complete crap teams with complete crap D’s, will play each other tonight in the Crap Bowl of the evening with Denver playing New Orleans.  I like Will Barton for Denver, he’s still cheap enough, and has averaged 35 fantasy points the past 4 games.  Barton is as streaky as they come, be warned, when he crashes, he crashes bad.  Will Barton can turn into Will Brimley within minutes.  Ajinca, Cunningham, and Hamilton are all good value plays for The Pelicans.

 

The OKC game is DANGEROUS.  There is a VERY possible chance that Westbrook and Durant only play 24-27 minutes tonight because they dish out such a severe ass whopping.  If they both play 30 plus minutes, they both WILL get 50 points a piece, minimum.  I like Ibaka as a pivot tonight.   Paul, Jordan and Reddick all will not play tonight.  I love Jamal Crawford, and Cole Aldrich for LAC this evening.  Aldrich has a tough matchup on paper, but the guy is nearly a fantasy point per minute guy when he’s on the floor, regardless of matchup.  30 points is NOT out of the question for him tonight, and at min price, that’s HUGE.  Austin Rivers could return value fairly easy, but not a guarantee. 

 

The Celts D has been really hit or miss since the All Star break.  They definitely play better at home, which doesn’t help them tonight in Portland.  CJ McCollum is one of my favorite plays at SG tonight, and is safe for 30 points, with a ceiling of 45 points.  That’s a big window, but Vegas says they will score a bunch, and that’s where I see it coming from.  I like Isaiah Thomas is always in play, and is probably one of the most consistent fantasy scores in the NBA.  He seems to always score between 34-44 points every night.  Lillard and The Blazers have been awful against the PG basically this entire season. 

 

My favorite base 5 tonight to build around  are Lebron, Harden, Thomas, Mahinmi, and Crawford. 

 

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3/23

 

Lets do a real quick basic breakdown for tonight.  Again, this time of year ANYTHING can happen, do not BANK on anything, make your best predictions, and let it fly.  Don’t beat yourself up if you get smoked tonight, or any other night until the season is over, ITS NOT YOUR FAULT…………………………..its not your fault.

 

I’m skipping the Cleveland game, The Bucks have been a nightmare lately, Lebron is worth rostering, and his ownership won’t be too high, hes just not my favorite play at SF.

 

I love the Wall, Beal, and Porter stack tonight.  I always like any team going against Atlanta, and since these guys JUST played, MAYBE this one is a little easier to predict.  For Atlanta, gun to my head, I will give Al Horford a whirl

 

I don’t love the Toronto/ Boston game.  If Val was out, I would be all in on Bismack B, but it looks like Val is a go.

 

I love Oladipo tonight against Pistons team without KCP, but he just got REALLY expensive this morning.  He could get you 40 tonight, but so could Booker or Wiggins at a discounted price.  Revenge game for Harris???  Maybe, but he hasn’t been lighting it up lately.  Drummond can make or break you any night, I have a feeling he has a big game and scores over 45 fantasy points.

 

The only player I’m playing tonight in the Spurs game is Leonard.  I think he matches Lebron’s production tonight for a couple thousand dollars cheaper.

 

Call me crazy, but even though two total crap defenses face off in Denver tonight, I ain’t touching it.

 

I DO like the Lakers, and Phoenix game.  Chandler probably won’t play, and that makes Leur a plug and play.  Some sites have Len and Teletovic as the starters, but I think Leur will start instead.  Love Booker tonight, love Knight tonight.  As a sneaky play I like Jordan Clarkson at SG, especially if Russell doesn’t play. 

 

If you want to just take last games stats in the Portland matchup, multiply it by .85 (because of the overtime), you might have a somewhat safe prediction on these guys.  Deron Williams will be the highest owned PG tonight because of the monster he put up last game against Lillard, but beware.  Deron Williams COULD disappear and get you 20-25 points tonight.  Dirk is on a tare, he’s worth the $$, Mejri is TOO CHEAP not to throw in a few lineups, and I like Plumlee again with Meyers Leonard already ruled out. 

 

I’m ALL IN on Draymond Green.  MINT matchup, great career numbers, GSW is home, and Curry hasn’t lit up Chris Paul very much the past few years.  If you’re going to do multiple lineups, and you want to anchor them with one guy, I have to believe Green has the highest floor and Ceiling.  Draymond Green could be the highest fantasy producer tonight, slightly above John Wall.  Your head to heads or 50/50’s should absolutely have both Wall and Green in them

 

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3/21

 

This time of the year is INSANE for DFS Hoops, NOTHING IS A SURE THING, and 50/50s from this point on are a complete crap shoot.  Make your best lineup, and through it in GPP’s, and cross your fingers.

 

I really don’t think Love plays tonight, The Cavs are going to start resting their starting 5 , and with Love under the weather, this seems like a perfect spot for him to sit.  IF he does, the Lebron, Kyrie AND Tristan stack is really nice.  Obviously, the usage rate with these guys goes up substantially without Love.  Jr Smith has a nice matchup on paper, but he has burned me too many times the last two years.  If you’re going for 1 of these guys, I think Lebron is going to eclipse 55 fantasy points tonight.  Iman Shumpert will be highly owned, but even in the starting 5 he only gets 24-27 minutes, and doesn’t do too much with it.

 

I’m all in on Paul George for obvious reasons tonight.  Always start opposing SF’s against Philly, regardless of who it is (Unless it’s Kyle Singler).  He should flirt with or even go over 50 fantasy points tonight at home.

My CONTRARIAN PG tonight is going to be Kemba Walker.  With so many good options out there at PG, Walker will be owned less than 5%.  Tony Parker can be swiss cheese on any given night, and when Kemba is on his game, he is just as good as Lowry or even Wall.  This is not a safe play, but if you want to get ballsy, Kemba could be a big ticket tonight.

 

I like Amir Johnson as a cheap option at PF.  Amir’s minutes have been steadily climbing the last few games, and his production has been a nice surprise.  The Celts are at home, against an Orlando D that STINKS vs the PF.  Get him in cheap, and pray for 25-28 minutes of action

 

I like Derrick Rose as a nice Value tonight against The Kings.  Rose has great career numbers against Rondo, and if he gets you 35-40 fantasy points tonight (which I think he will), it makes him an incredible asset tonight.

 

The GSW game is going to be nuts.  There are so many options here.  Draymond Green could flirt with a triple double, Curry should score anywhere from 50 - 65 fantasy points, Rush could be a nice value, or kill your lineup if he gets you a 10.  I actually think the biggest return in VALUE on The Warriors side comes from Barnes.  He should see 30 minutes, and against The Wolves in that spot, he could get you 30 points.  Towns could have a 50 point game, and I like Rubio a lot tonight as well.  If you are playing Rubio, it makes sense to pair him with Towns (and Vice Versa) for the hook up.  If The Wolves can keep this close, this game is going to be a gold mine for fantasy production

 

Again, the Phoenix – Memphis game is a NIGHTMARE !!  Which Lance shows up?  Is Ray McCallum going to play 30 minutes?  Which Alex Len decides to show up?  If I have to take a few players on this game, I’m taking Tyson Chandler, Devin Booker, and Tony Allen.  If McCallum was ABSOLUTLEY the starter, and I KNEW he was getting 30 minutes against Brandon Knight, I would be ALL IN on him.  Don’t RELY on ANYTHING in this game.  That being said, the risk is worth the reward on some of these guys since neither team was ever taught who to play defense.  The two biggest jinx’s of all time (Matt Barnes and PJ Tucker) square off against each other tonight.   Something tells me these guys are going to collide with each other and both get carried off the court by the mascots.

 

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QUICK AND DIRTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BREAKDOWN

 

If you’re going to punt a position tonight, its SG.  I like Klay Thompson, and other than that, nothing that expensive.  I hate Harden’s career numbers against The Clippers, and Oladipo is on back to back’s with a tough matchup tonight.  Good punt plays would be Korver or Wes Matthews.  Both of these guys could 100% throw up 10-15 fantasy points, but it’s a punt, they should at least get the minutes and they both have decent matchups.

 

I think Durant has a monster game tonight and puts up 60 Fantasy Points against a Celts team without Crowder

 

I like Taj Gibson tonight to get a double-double and close to 30 Fantasy Points making him a value.  I’m fading Wall tonight at home.  He historically does not play well against Rose or even a Rose-less Bulls team.

 

I love the Kemba Walker – Marvin Williams combo tonight, shouldn’t be too high owned, and could return huge value against a crap Magic Defense.

 

I actually like a DETROIT stack against Atlanta tonight.  After how they played last game, nobody in their right mind would stack them.  That being said, they match up nicely against them, and Detroit is back home.  Reggie- Morris- Drummond is my “Sneaky Stack” tonight.

 

The Wolves game is a NIGHTMARE.  I have no idea what is going to happen.  My two favorite plays are, Wiggins because he sees the most minutes regardless of the score, and JaMychal Green because he owned them last time they faced off, and due to his shitty recent play, I think his ownership will be way down.  His price is up as well, Green is my SNEAKY PICK of the night

 

Dwight Howard is my favorite Center on the board tonight

 

If Norris Cole doesn’t play, Tony Douglas is kind of a plug and play

 

Draymond Green is my favorite PF of the night and I have a feeling he Triple-Doubles tonight and returns more Value than Anthony Davis. 

 

Cheap PG Options:

Jose Calderon, Ray McCallum, Marcus Smart, Tony Douglas

 

 

 

3/9

 

Yikes, a friggin jumbo nightmare right off the bat.  First, JaMychal Green will be owned in 65% of GPP’s tonight, but I can’t fade him.   Z-Bo is doubtful, and Memphis is so thin that Green should see 35 minutes tonight at Center where The Celts have really struggled against all season.  I can understand fading him because of the ownership, but I can’t do that tonight.   Tony Allen is a good play, I won’t play Barnes because he jinxes every lineup I’ve ever had him in.  Chalmers will be popular, but a tough matchup vs Thomas.  On The Celt’s side, I think Thomas is a strong/ safe bet for 40 fantasy points tonight, and I think Amir Johnson is a nice sneaky pivot play.  Olynk and Sully are both questionable, and if they sit, Amir could be looking at over 25 minutes of action for the first time in months. 

 

Harden is in a nice situation tonight, but his price is so high he needs 55 points to return value.  Harden on the road, is not completely the same as Harden at home, so I won’t have him across the board tonight.  Howard is safe play for 40 points, and using him in head to heads or 50/50’s make sense.  The guy I really like tonight in this game is Covington.  Great matchup, has seen tons of minutes the last couple weeks, and has great numbers vs Houston.

 

Believe it or not, I’m going to go contrarian and fade the NOP vs Charlotte game.  Big over under, but these guys have strange underperforming numbers against each other.  It’s almost like they match up well vs one another.    I think ownership will be high, but this is the game I will roll the dice on and not touch it.

 

Whiteside is probable to play tonight, and could be in for a MONSTER against The Bucks.  I like pairing him with D Wade tonight who might be my favorite play at SG.  It’s not out of the question that these guys combine for 90 tonight.

 

For my LOW OWNED CRAZY COMBO tonight I’m going with the Reggie Jackson / Drummond combo.  With so many other options out there, I think they both will be owned less that 5% tonight.  Dallas stinks on D, Reggie looks a bit better, and Drummond is about ready to snap out of this HUGE funk and throw up a 55 any night now. 

 

The Knicks play CRAP defense the second night of back to back sets.  I’m all in on Devin Booker and Alex Len tonight.  PJ Tucker is cheap enough where he can return value, and if you really feel ballsy putting Price in could be a nice little play to give you some cap relief.  These guys all should see minutes in the 30’s (maybe not Price), they are home tonight, and The Knicks played Crap defense last night as well.  Devin Booker is my second favorite SG play tonight behind Wade.

 

The OKC game is really a coin flip.  All these guys always return value when they play each other, but nobody exceeds it too much.  Paul, Durant, Westbrook and Jordan are all great plays in head to heads and 50/50’s tonight, but putting more than one in your lineup will not win you a GPP this evening.  I think Durant has the most upside, and if anyone exceeds it out of these four, I think he’s the guy.  I like Ibaka as a nice pivot play too. 

 

I’m ALL IN on the Kyrie/ Lebron combo.  I’m not even going to talk about The Kings Defense, if you’re reading this, chances are you aren’t an idiot and are quite aware of their situation.  Both Lebron and Irving have GREAT numbers vs The Kings, and I think they are (or should be) embarrassed about that Memphis game the other night.  If Mozgov sits, throwing Tristan Thompson in with these guys could be genius.

 

Curry is as safe as they come, but I have a feeling GSW SMOKES Utah tonight.  This could be dicey with minutes in the second half.  I’ll stay away from this one on a hunch that The Warriors win 114 to 82.    

 

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3/7/16

 

I think I’m going to fade The Cleveland/ Memphis game completely.  Cleveland does have a sweet matchup at home, but I feel a blow-out here with the possibility of Lebron/ and Kyrie sitting out most of the 4^th quarter.  Gun to my head, I would throw Kevin Love in a lineup or two in case he has a monster game, but not really in love with anything else here

 

Be VERY CAREFUL with San Antonio game.  This could be a game where Pop announces at 6:50 that Leonard and Parker will “Rest” tonight.  There is no indication of that yet, but it is always a possibility this time of year with The Spurs.  If you want to gamble, I like that exact combo of Leonard and Parker, but again, PAY ATTENTION.

 

I’m ALL IN on Batum tonight.  The Wolves STINK against the SF, and Batum is heating up.  I’m hoping for 35 minutes on the floor,  flirting w a Triple double, PLUS a few stills on Wiggy. 

 

Chicago is the most INTERESTING and DANGEROUS game tonight.  I like Parker because Chicago is basically worst in the league vs PF, and Parker has seen minutes consistently in the mid 30’s.   I love ANTE every night, but he is SO expensive it is becoming harder and harder for him to return value.  If you’re not going Cousins tonight I think Gasol is a great play at home against The Bucks who have been terrible the past month against the Center.  Jimmy Butler could go off, but I just can’t yet.

 

The Kings/ Pelicans game is going to have HUGE ownership tonight.  I LOVE the Rondo/ Cousins combo tonight, New Orleans is terrible against both positions.  I’m not touching any other King tonight.  IF they both play big minutes, and IF they could avoid foul trouble, they should combine for near 100 fantasy points (keep your fingers crossed that neither of them do ANYTHING stupid).   Jrue will be 60% owned tonight, and rightfully so, but watch Norris Cole’s status.  If Cole is ruled out, Tony Douglas is kind of a must play.  If you roll with Jrue, obviously pairing him with Davis ($$$)makes sense.

 

I like Wes Mathews tonight as a somewhat sneaky SG against LAC tonight.  He has good career numbers, and has been playing well lately.  It’s not a great matchup for him, but he is so cheap, it could make sense in some roster constructions.   Dirk has a good matchup, but playing off back to back his numbers might be capped in the high 20’s, with David Lee seeing a bit more action.  Paul is always a safe bet and Deandre Jordan is a nice play if you don’t want to pony up for Cousins/ Gasol.

 

I’m all in on Curry tonight.  Hopefully people will be off him because of his performance last night.  I think GSW is pissed (rightfully so), and I’m gonna base a good deal of lineups with Curry, and Draymond Green.  Orlando is a garbage team on defense, The Warriors want to come out and score 120 tonight.  Let’s not forget the Curry just put up a 70 on them a few games ago…………………….

 

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3/1/16

 

I’m doing this early, so obviously check back at 6:30 because if tonight is anything  like last night, this will 100% change because of phantom injuries and late scratches.  Luckily Jason Kidd and George Karl have nothing vested tonight, so it couldn’t possibly be as bad. 

 

I’m all in on Kemba Walker tonight.  Phoenix just STINKS, but they REALLY STINK against guards.  Courtney Lee is an interesting play, but he never does enough to win you a GPP, but Kemba on the other hand can go MENTAL in this situation.  I don’t think Curry plays (they don’t need him to beat Atlanta, I hope they sit him), and although Grinders disagrees with me, I think Kemba will be the top performing PG tonight.  I also think something is wrong with Batum, he looks sloppy and uncomfortable, until he gets back on track, I won’t roster him.

 

Same game I like Teletovic.  If Charlotte stinks at one aspect, it’s giving up 3 pointers.  Teletovic might shoot 14 of them tonight from behind the arc.  He’s cheap, they are going to have to shoot, and if he’s feeling it, he could net you 30 fantasy points tonight.  I like PJ Tucker too, he’s by far no “Sure thing”, but with 30 PLUS minutes against this D he should be able to return value with small numbers across the sheet.

 

I like the Wade with Whiteside combo tonight.  Both have good career numbers against Chicago, good home numbers, and good D vs Position numbers.  I’m gonna sit back, trust math, and hope they can combine for near 90 points tonight.  I want NOTHING to do with The Bulls tonight (including Pau)

 

Portland vs NY is an interesting one tonight.  Vegas has this game with a higher over/under than I expected, with a small spread.  Lillard should return value in the 39-43 point range, but I think CJ McCollum exceeds value tonight.  The Knicks have been TERRIBLE against opposing SG’s since right before the ALL STAR break.  I don’t think he will be highly owned, and I think he mimics Lillard tonight with points in that same 39-43 range.  I like Carmelo to get 40, which doesn’t mean he exceeds value, but SF stinks tonight.  I like Robin Lopez as a sneaky 30-35 point play too.

 

Orlando vs Dallas I’m not too excited about.  The Magic are a better home team, and Dallas can really spread out their production making it tough to find value.  Oladipo and Vu are pretty safe plays, and if I HAD to pick the player of the game, I’m going with Parsons (especially if Fournier sits)

 

I’m not a sucker anymore (not true) so I won’t touch any Atlanta player tonight, or ever.  Like I said, I don’t think Curry plays tonight, so I REALLY like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson .  GSW still wants to win every game going forward, and attacking Korver and Atlanta’s big is a good way to do it.  If Curry sits, I’m saying Draymond Green is the top DFS player tonight with a Triple-Double and 50 PLUS points. 

 

Stack Brooklyn.  Just do it.  Ellington shouldn’t play because of a concussion, leaving Mark Brown to see 30 minutes against one of, if not the worst defense in the NBA.  Do every combo you can, but the three most important in my opinion are, Brown, Boga, and Thad Young.  Sloan can lose minutes, and Brook Lopez always throws in that crap game the one time each week I roster him.  Stacking these three, gives you PLENTY of $$ to pay up for the higher priced guys.

 

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