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Tuesday, January 26, 2016
SOME QUICK NBA DFS ADVICE FOR TONIGHT:
Instead of going heavy with a two stud PG lineup, I'm going to save some money and go with the two stud SG lineup tonight. I think a McCollum/DeRozan combo could net more return value than a Paul/Westbrook combo. Its cheaper, and I think both SG's are in for 40 + fantasy points tonight.
If Covington starts at SG tonight, and faces off with Booker, he is a must play. Covington has also been getting the most consistent minutes on the team for Philly in the past week or so. I will take ANYBODY who can see 30 plus minutes of action against The Suns. Keep your fingers crossed that he stays on the court.
Damian Lillard is the best value top tier PG tonight on www.draftdemons.com
Toronto could CRUSH Washington tonight, be careful
Whiteside has already been ruled out, everybody and their mothers are going to be on Tyson Chandler tonight, if you want to be ballsy, and go contrarian, ride The Brook Lopez train, and hope he doesn't put up a chump performance (Which he tends to every 5th game, be warned). A 45-50 point night is not out of the question for Lopez. Good GPP play
My favorite sneaky value play tonight is Jabari Parker. Orlando has been AWFUL all season against the PF, and now with Gordon starting over Frye, it isn't going to get any better. Z-Bo and Jeff Green tore them up last night. Again, like Covington, I love the fact that Parker has been averaging a TON of minutes the past week. If he plays for 35 tonight, I'm going to project him for the same 35 fantasy points. That number could creep to 40 if he throws some blocks in there, Orlando gets blocked constantly, they have for the past 3 years, its their thing.
I'm fading Rondo and Cousins tonight. I will probably be the ONLY person to say not to pay up for Cousins, but that's the way I see it. They both played big minutes last night, and Cousins is so expensive, if he fouls out, or plays lazy (We ve seen it), he could ruin your night. I love Boogie, just not tonight.
Sacremento's defense is bottom of the barrel on a regular night. After playing an overtime lastnight, and being without Gay tonight, I think a Lillard, McCollum combo could be big. An entire Portland stack is an intriguing play, I actually like Noah Vonleh as another sneaky play.
The Philly/ Phoenix game is going to have so much ownership across the industry, that fading the game completely is a ballsy, but possibly very lucrative move. In no way is it smart, there is so much value on both sides, you have to get some pieces in your lineup. HOWEVER, if by some strange force of nature, the power goes out, or it ends in a 71-74 crap fest, you could be WAY above the competition by fading it. Not a prediction, just a what if scenario.
Play on www.draftdemons.com, or we will start sending you chain letters on your Facebook page. Really stupid ones.
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Lets go for 2 in a row................
In my 50/50s tonight I will be fading the Warriors. They are a huge favorite, and I don't think they will need Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay to win this game. They played last night, and it would be wise to use these 3 studs wisely in this situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see their minutes in the mid 20's this evening which will probably limit their fantasy ceiling. If you want any of these guys in your tourney plays, go for it, its a MINT matchup, but theirs too much risk to for me to pay big bucks for someone who wont get 30 PLUS minutes of action
Michael Carter Williams- $6,700
MCW has returned value his last 4 games in a row averaging 38.93 Fantasy points during that time frame. Derrick Rose doesn't scare me on defense, and neither does Brooks if Rose sits (quite possible). Butler, Mirotic, Taj/Portis, and even Gasol have played BETTER D lately (not great, but a step in the right direction). The Bucks will have to score somehow, and I like MCW's chances finishing the night around 35 fantasy points. He has really solid career numbers against The Bulls.
Jimmy Butler- $8000
Butler has been a MONSTER lately, he has averaged 47.8 points in the past 3 games. He gets Kris Middleton tonight, and The Bucks are in the bottom rung in The NBA against opposing SG's. If Rose sits, Butlers usage rate will go nuts. Great matchup, he's on a tare, pencil him in for 40 and hope for 50.
Rudy Gay- $6800
Rondo looks like he won't play tonight. Gay will shoot the ball a ton. Chandler Parsons is no Defensive stud. Gay could return big value tonight if his shot is on and can stay on the court for 32 PLUS minutes. Greek Freak is the same price basically, but I don't trust The Bucks after playing last night. They tend to do some weird things which can equal a huge nut kick to your fantasy night. Gay is the SAFER of the two.
Paul Millsap- $8,100
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Knicks have played Atlanta twice in the past 10 days, Millsap scored 47 and 49 points. Cross your fingers, hope Atlanta doesn't smoke these guys, and be happy with 40 PLUS points.
Zaza P - $5,900
The Kings are beyond terrible on Defense. Dallas SHOULD score at least 100 points tonight. JJ, Wes, and Parsons are so streaky, I will take the consistency here. Zaza has scored 35 Fantasy points the past 5 games (almost exactly, kind of weird). The Kings stink, they played last night, Zaza is the safe play here, at 5900, 35 points is very nice in a 50/50.
Jose Calderon- $4,200
He's cheap, this is basically a punt play. If he stays on the floor for over 25 mins, he gets 20-30 points, not spectacular by any stretch, but these are the plays you need to make the pieces fit. This might be the only time this year I will suggest playing him (if he puts up 12 points tonight, he is dead to me. This has happened before...............a lot) He did score 32 points in limited action against Atlanta the day after Christmas
Bobby Portis- $4,500
I HATE putting non-starters in my 50/50's, but he is still underpriced. I wish The Bulls would let him start at PF and see what he can do with 30 minutes of action. The kid is the real deal, and fun to watch. Milwaukee stinks against the PF, I'm hoping Portis gets 22-26 minutes tonight and racks up a double-double in that time.
Kent Bazemore- $5,800
Bazemore has seen minutes consistently in the high 20's- low 30's the past couple of weeks. He is a better player than Thabo, and deserves the starting gig. If he gets the minutes tonight, and Atlanta doesn't clobber these guys by 25, Bazemore should get somewhere around 30 points.
Good luck, watch the wire from 6:30-6:58 so you can completely change your lineup at the last minute because anything that can go wrong in DFS hoops, will.
In my 50/50s tonight I will be fading the Warriors. They are a huge favorite, and I don't think they will need Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay to win this game. They played last night, and it would be wise to use these 3 studs wisely in this situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see their minutes in the mid 20's this evening which will probably limit their fantasy ceiling. If you want any of these guys in your tourney plays, go for it, its a MINT matchup, but theirs too much risk to for me to pay big bucks for someone who wont get 30 PLUS minutes of action
Michael Carter Williams- $6,700
MCW has returned value his last 4 games in a row averaging 38.93 Fantasy points during that time frame. Derrick Rose doesn't scare me on defense, and neither does Brooks if Rose sits (quite possible). Butler, Mirotic, Taj/Portis, and even Gasol have played BETTER D lately (not great, but a step in the right direction). The Bucks will have to score somehow, and I like MCW's chances finishing the night around 35 fantasy points. He has really solid career numbers against The Bulls.
Jimmy Butler- $8000
Butler has been a MONSTER lately, he has averaged 47.8 points in the past 3 games. He gets Kris Middleton tonight, and The Bucks are in the bottom rung in The NBA against opposing SG's. If Rose sits, Butlers usage rate will go nuts. Great matchup, he's on a tare, pencil him in for 40 and hope for 50.
Rudy Gay- $6800
Rondo looks like he won't play tonight. Gay will shoot the ball a ton. Chandler Parsons is no Defensive stud. Gay could return big value tonight if his shot is on and can stay on the court for 32 PLUS minutes. Greek Freak is the same price basically, but I don't trust The Bucks after playing last night. They tend to do some weird things which can equal a huge nut kick to your fantasy night. Gay is the SAFER of the two.
Paul Millsap- $8,100
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Knicks have played Atlanta twice in the past 10 days, Millsap scored 47 and 49 points. Cross your fingers, hope Atlanta doesn't smoke these guys, and be happy with 40 PLUS points.
Zaza P - $5,900
The Kings are beyond terrible on Defense. Dallas SHOULD score at least 100 points tonight. JJ, Wes, and Parsons are so streaky, I will take the consistency here. Zaza has scored 35 Fantasy points the past 5 games (almost exactly, kind of weird). The Kings stink, they played last night, Zaza is the safe play here, at 5900, 35 points is very nice in a 50/50.
Jose Calderon- $4,200
He's cheap, this is basically a punt play. If he stays on the floor for over 25 mins, he gets 20-30 points, not spectacular by any stretch, but these are the plays you need to make the pieces fit. This might be the only time this year I will suggest playing him (if he puts up 12 points tonight, he is dead to me. This has happened before...............a lot) He did score 32 points in limited action against Atlanta the day after Christmas
Bobby Portis- $4,500
I HATE putting non-starters in my 50/50's, but he is still underpriced. I wish The Bulls would let him start at PF and see what he can do with 30 minutes of action. The kid is the real deal, and fun to watch. Milwaukee stinks against the PF, I'm hoping Portis gets 22-26 minutes tonight and racks up a double-double in that time.
Kent Bazemore- $5,800
Bazemore has seen minutes consistently in the high 20's- low 30's the past couple of weeks. He is a better player than Thabo, and deserves the starting gig. If he gets the minutes tonight, and Atlanta doesn't clobber these guys by 25, Bazemore should get somewhere around 30 points.
Good luck, watch the wire from 6:30-6:58 so you can completely change your lineup at the last minute because anything that can go wrong in DFS hoops, will.
Monday, January 4, 2016
A quick breakdown of my 50/50 lineup tonight.
First off, Westbrook will be owned in 80% of head to head and 50/50's tonight because Durant is already ruled out. He should be owned this high, he will have a MONSTER night, but I'm going to actually skip him in my 50/50's. He is just too expensive tonight, and chances are he will return value, but if he doesn't, kiss your entry fee goodbye. The Kings are a MESS, Rondo and Cousins just don't care enough to put huge effort into ANYTHING. Even with Durant out, there is a chance that OKC just torches these guys and holds a 20 plus point lead. With Durant fragile right now, if the lead is huge (which is possible), we might see Waiters getting 25 minutes if they don't NEED Westbrook to win. Its just too risky to base my entire night on him when there are other PG's in great situations. I will play him in GPP's because there's a possibility he gets 75 points, but I will look elsewhere for my 50/50's.
Ricky Rubio $7100
Philly gives up points, not a secret. I would LOVE Rubio tonight if Ish Smith was still a Pelican, but he's not. I still think Rubio gets between 35-40 fantasy points tonight. When Rubio is feeling it, he is an assist/ steal/ scoring machine. I don't think he will be the #1 PG tonight, but I think he is safe enough to be my PG #1 in my 50/50's.
Andrew Wiggins $6400
Vegas says The Wolves score around 104 points tonight, Wiggins plays 38 mins a game lately, Cannan can't play defense, neither can any other SG that Philly will throw out there. Wiggins is too cheap, he could be looking at 40 points tonight as well, I'm putting him in both my GPP's and 50/50's.
Gordo Hayward $7,500
Hayward has a GREAT matchup tonight against Ariza and The Rockets. I REALLY think Favors sits again tonight, and Hayward's usage rate will be high. Someone has to score for Utah, and I am not a believer in Hood or Trey Burke yet. Hood has been hot, but he makes a better tourney play than a 50/50 tonight
Serge Ibaka- $6.300
Ibaka almost always plays 32 PLUS mins per game, he has a great matchup tonight, his usage rate will be up with Durant sidelined. Again, he is too cheap to pass up at this price. Ibaka is looking at a double-double this evening with a couple of steals and handful of blocks in there.
Jeff Withey- $4,300
I'm kind of punting this position tonight. Other than Brook Lopez, I am not in LOVE with any centers on the slate. AGAIN, this is all based on Favors sitting tonight. Fact is, Withey has averaged over 30 fantasy points the last 4 games, if he gets that again tonight, for $4300, its a STEAL.
Patty Mills- $3,700
The Chalk play tonight. Parker out, The Bucks STINK against the PG, Mills might not get 40 tonight, but at this price, with this matchup, you kind of HAVE TO put him in there and hope he flirts with 30-35 points tonight.
L Aldridge- $6.700
Leonard is going to be HUGELY owned tonight, but he has burned me a couple of times in the past week. He needs a 40 plus performance to return value tonight, and he is not currently on one of his hot streaks. I'll take the value and hope Aldridge gets 35 tonight instead. Whenever Parker or Duncan sits, Aldridge's fantasy production tends to drastically increase.
I. Thomas- $7,800
Celts will score tonight, the offense runs through Thomas. Avery Bradley is out, Marcus Smart is not ready for 25 PLUS mins yet, Thomas has done really well against Brooklyn this season. It also helps that he will face off against Shane Larkin with J Jack out for the season. Thomas gets 40 tonight. (On a side note I think Evan Turner has a really nice game tonight as a great value play)
Check back and make sure Favors isn't playing tonight. If he does, this lineup is null and void.
First off, Westbrook will be owned in 80% of head to head and 50/50's tonight because Durant is already ruled out. He should be owned this high, he will have a MONSTER night, but I'm going to actually skip him in my 50/50's. He is just too expensive tonight, and chances are he will return value, but if he doesn't, kiss your entry fee goodbye. The Kings are a MESS, Rondo and Cousins just don't care enough to put huge effort into ANYTHING. Even with Durant out, there is a chance that OKC just torches these guys and holds a 20 plus point lead. With Durant fragile right now, if the lead is huge (which is possible), we might see Waiters getting 25 minutes if they don't NEED Westbrook to win. Its just too risky to base my entire night on him when there are other PG's in great situations. I will play him in GPP's because there's a possibility he gets 75 points, but I will look elsewhere for my 50/50's.
Ricky Rubio $7100
Philly gives up points, not a secret. I would LOVE Rubio tonight if Ish Smith was still a Pelican, but he's not. I still think Rubio gets between 35-40 fantasy points tonight. When Rubio is feeling it, he is an assist/ steal/ scoring machine. I don't think he will be the #1 PG tonight, but I think he is safe enough to be my PG #1 in my 50/50's.
Andrew Wiggins $6400
Vegas says The Wolves score around 104 points tonight, Wiggins plays 38 mins a game lately, Cannan can't play defense, neither can any other SG that Philly will throw out there. Wiggins is too cheap, he could be looking at 40 points tonight as well, I'm putting him in both my GPP's and 50/50's.
Gordo Hayward $7,500
Hayward has a GREAT matchup tonight against Ariza and The Rockets. I REALLY think Favors sits again tonight, and Hayward's usage rate will be high. Someone has to score for Utah, and I am not a believer in Hood or Trey Burke yet. Hood has been hot, but he makes a better tourney play than a 50/50 tonight
Serge Ibaka- $6.300
Ibaka almost always plays 32 PLUS mins per game, he has a great matchup tonight, his usage rate will be up with Durant sidelined. Again, he is too cheap to pass up at this price. Ibaka is looking at a double-double this evening with a couple of steals and handful of blocks in there.
Jeff Withey- $4,300
I'm kind of punting this position tonight. Other than Brook Lopez, I am not in LOVE with any centers on the slate. AGAIN, this is all based on Favors sitting tonight. Fact is, Withey has averaged over 30 fantasy points the last 4 games, if he gets that again tonight, for $4300, its a STEAL.
Patty Mills- $3,700
The Chalk play tonight. Parker out, The Bucks STINK against the PG, Mills might not get 40 tonight, but at this price, with this matchup, you kind of HAVE TO put him in there and hope he flirts with 30-35 points tonight.
L Aldridge- $6.700
Leonard is going to be HUGELY owned tonight, but he has burned me a couple of times in the past week. He needs a 40 plus performance to return value tonight, and he is not currently on one of his hot streaks. I'll take the value and hope Aldridge gets 35 tonight instead. Whenever Parker or Duncan sits, Aldridge's fantasy production tends to drastically increase.
I. Thomas- $7,800
Celts will score tonight, the offense runs through Thomas. Avery Bradley is out, Marcus Smart is not ready for 25 PLUS mins yet, Thomas has done really well against Brooklyn this season. It also helps that he will face off against Shane Larkin with J Jack out for the season. Thomas gets 40 tonight. (On a side note I think Evan Turner has a really nice game tonight as a great value play)
Check back and make sure Favors isn't playing tonight. If he does, this lineup is null and void.
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