2/26/16

 

 

Not an easy night tonight, not many “Value Plays” in the lower priced guys.  I don’t see this as being a “Stars and Scrubs” night at all

 

For the high priced SF tonight, I’m rolling with Paul George tonight at home vs Charlotte.  C Anthony’s shooting has been a bit off, and Toronto does a decent job against the SF, I think it will be close between all these guys, but taking price in factor as well, I think Paul George is the play.  When he’s on fire, he can stuff the sheet just as well as Lebron

 

John Wall is my favorite high end PG tonight.  Wall has great career numbers against Philly (everyone kind of does), and nailed a Triple-Double the last time they met.  Lowry has been inconsistent in returning value, Rondo is always scary, and CP3 doesn’t have amazing numbers against The Kings.  Again, any of these guys could go off, but gun to my head, I’m going with Wall

 

I’m going to ride Fournier for a few more nights, including tonight.  He should play 36-39 minutes, against Carmelo, and all he really needs is 28-32 fantasy points to return value.  He was really streaky earlier this season, and until the wheels fall off, I’m riding.

 

I LOVE the Centers tonight.  Good luck on nailing which guy is going off.  Vucevic is probably the safest play, Gortat is my favorite play, and Jokic is my sneaky play.  I’m fading Cousins tonight.  Jordan will be on him, and the LAC have really improved on stopping opposing Centers the past month.   I’m hoping he’s 40% owned, and puts up a 40 fantasy point night.

 

Ownership SHOULD be huge in the LAL and MEM game.  I can’t fade it.  There’s too much value there.  Doing a Conley/Barnes/ Green stack gives you so much salary relief to stud up the rest of your lineup.  I like Russell/ Clarkson/ Lou Williams on the other side.

 

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2/19/16

 

Its back!!  God, do I HATE MLB and NBA ALL STAR break.  HUGE SLATE TONIGHT!!

 

I think Evan Fournier has potential to return great value tonight.  Harris is out of the picture, and Fournier could see 35 PLUS minutes tonight, he is low-mid tier priced but could get you 30 fantasy points against a Dallas Defense that is sub-par

 

I think Porzingis is in for one of his monster games.  Brooklyn/ Thad Young are the worst in The NBA against opposing PF’s.  Porzingis is really boom or bust, but because of that his ownership might be slightly low

 

Valanciunas has a MINT matchup on paper, but I might have to fade him tonight.  The problem is , he is averaging 25 mins a game the past few weeks.  I don’t want any guy in my lineup in a GPP that doesn’t stay on the floor for 30 at least.

 

I’m all in on Anthony Davis tonight.  His price is down, he is overdue for a huge stat-stuffing extravaganza!  Cake matchup, great career numbers vs Philly.  I’m not going to over think it, I’m gonna plug him in, cross my fingers, and hope for 60.  (I love pairing him with Jrue Holiday)

 

Jeremy Lin could be huge tonight as well.    Newly acquired Courtney Lee wont suit up, and HOPEFULLY Lin sees 30 PLUs against Middleton tonight.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he flirts with a low end Triple-Double.

 

Ricky Rubio might be my SNEAKY PG play tonight, lots of Studs on the board, but last time The Wolves faced off against Memphis Rubio put up a 45.   If Rubio puts up Lowry/ Lillard numbers tonight, at a huge discount, you will be ahead of the game.

 

If I m going to punt a position tonight, its going to be SF.  Im not in LOVE with any of the big names tonight.  I like Winslow, Brewer and even Harkless as cheap pivot plays which allows you to get the Curry, Davis combo in there.

 

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2/10

 

It’s tough to find many good value PG picks tonight.  I think paying up for Lillard, Lowry, and Paul is the way to go.  Gun to my head, if I had to pick one lower priced guy, I would have to roll with Archie Goodwin.   Fact is, he is playing 39 minutes a game, and GSW is NOT good at stopping opposing PG’s.  The Warriors are playing back-to-back tonight, and with the All Star break starting tomorrow, Golden State might be careful with their starters (which they should).   It would be pretty silly for Curry to break his ankle the night before the break, in the 3rd quarter with a 22 point lead against the worst team in The NBA.  For this reason, I will be completely fading the entire Golden State team.  If the starters are all held to 24-26 mins, it’s nearly impossible for them to return value.  If you really want to gauge the size of your testicles, putting Donald Sloan in at PG could return big value, and with tiny ownership.  Conley has NOT been good on D the past two weeks, and if Sloan chips away to 25-30 points tonight, it could be huge.  Not a safe play, not even recommended, just an option in big GPP’s. 

 

Both Michael Carter Williams and Monroe POUNDED The Celts last night.  For that reason (plus others), I like the Chris Paul / DeAndre Jordan combo tonight.  I think these guys will combine for 90 fantasy points in a game that Vegas says will be close with an over/under at 105 +.  This may be Paul Pierce’s final game in Boston, I wouldn’t be surprised if they let him play 20-24 mins and he racks up 20 plus points, nice sneaky punt play

 

Since Gasol is out, I think Z-Bo is safe for 33 + minutes and a Double-Double PLUS

 

Illyasova is looking like he won’t play tonight, leaving the door open for Tolliver to get 30 mins .  He is minimum price basically, and 30 minutes against Denver is a PRETTY SAFE BET that he returns value.

 

New Orleans is AWFUL against BIGS.  Like, vomit inducing pathetic.  Either, Gobert or Favors is going to FEAST tonight on the boards.  I will roll with Rudy on this one due to his blocking ability as well as his rebounding skills.  Utah is on the second night of a back-to-back set, which might scare people away from playing  Favors/ Gobert.

 

Sneaky Stack of the night is Orlando.  Everyone shys away from teams against San Antonio, but their D has not been SPECTACULAR the last couple of weeks.  The Magic players are not outrageously priced, and if they score 100 points, I think they all can return value (depending on Harris’s status).   San Antonio played last night and NOBODY has any idea what Pop will do with his starters tonight. 

 

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2/5

 

I’m riding The Oladipo train AGAIN tonight.  He had a a big game against The Spurs and followed it up with a 50 point performance against OKC Wednsday night.  Oladipo is streaky, but you have to ride the hot streak until it crashes.  On paper, The Clippers have been pretty good against opposing SG’s, but JJ Reddick and Crawford don’t scare me on D.  I think he has a 25 point floor tonight with 45 point ceiling.  I don’t love Shooting Guard tonight, Butler says he will play but I don’t know how healthy that knee is.  (On a side note, last time Butler was questionable with a banged up knee he got 80 points against Philly. )

 

IF the 76ers can keep it somewhat close, Wall could have a huge game.  I like Ish Smith as well.  Neither The Wizards or the 76ers can stop opposing PG’s.  It’s possible Washington is up by 30 at halftime, but the Wizards are so poor on D, if the 76ers have a hot hand or two, they could keep it close.   I think it’s worth the risk to throw a few mini stacks of Ish, Covington, Noel and/or Wall, Porter,Gortat in a few lineups and cross your fingers and hope or a barn burner

 

Surprisingly, Loul Deng has quietly RETURNED value for the past 5 games.  He has a good matchup, he has been playing big minutes, I see no reason to play him for cheap $$ and hope he gets you a 30.

 

I like Monta Ellis tonight.  He played the same Atlanta squad last week and put up 50 +points.  He has averaged 35 mins per game the past 6 games.  In a 2 SG format, I’m liking the Oladipo/Ellis combo in both GPs and 50/50’s

 

I like a rested Marc Gasol tonight against Robin Lopez who played 35 minutes last night.  The Knicks always play sloppy D on back-to-back sets.  Nobody else agrees with me that he gets a 40 tonight, but that’s what I see, and I can’t skew my projections because of others opinions. 

 

IF I have to pick one game to fade, it’s going to be Bucks at Utah. 

 

2/3

 

Almost every night Millsap is projected to hit somewhere between 36-40 points.  He has hit that mark 30% of the time in the past few weeks.  I will not be playing any Atlanta players tonight, because they are far too hard to accurately predict.  I get it, they are playing Philly, but they are a fantasy nightmare. However,  Robert Covington has been playing minutes consistently in the mid 30s for weeks now and Atlanta has trouble against Opposing SF’s.  I’ll ride the Covy train, and hope that explodes like he tends to when he is in a groove.  Ish Smith is a nice mid- range PG option too

 

Kemba Walker is OUT, Jeremy Lin will start at PG and hopefully will see 30 PLUS minutes tonight against Kyrie/ Dellavedova.  Lin could be in for 30-35 points and at his current price could be a huge value tonight.  Kyrie / Lebron/ Love/ Tristan T are all intriguing options tonight too in a cake matchup, just cross your fingers that this game isn’t a blowout which would limit these guys to minutes in the mid-20’s.

 

Myles Turner is on a HEATER, I love his matchup tonight against Brooklyn and Thad Young.  Play him, I like pairing him with Monta Ellis too.  Paul George’s production has declined, and Ellis’s has increased the last two weeks.

 

Isaiah Thomas is the play tonight in the Detroit game.  If you want to gamble, dedicate a chunk of your cap to Drummond.  The Celts can be pitiful against the Center.  You just never know which Drummond will show up

 

Obviously Westbrook and Durant have a great matchup tonight, and are very safe plays if you want to spend up on them.  I like Ibaka as a sneaky play.  If he can double-double and throw in 3-5 blocks, he will easily return value.  On the other side of the ball, Oladipo is coming off a nice outing, and if OKC is vulnerable anywhere, it’s against the SG

 

Watch the news closely before 7:00 in regards to the Kings game.  There is a lot of question marks in this game.  If McLemore sits (I hope he does), Im going with Marco Belinelli as my top cheap value play of the night.  Chicago will sick Jimmy Butler on Gay, leaving E’twaun Moores to cover Marco. 

 

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2/2

Watch Jae Crowder’s status before game time.  Isaiah Thomas could go off, but if Crowder sits, I think Marcus Smart could actually return more value than Thomas in a point-per-dollar scenario.  Brad Stevens does some weird things with his 1,2,3’s when there is an injury like this.  If Crowder is out, I like Evan Turner to get close to 30 as well.

 

I’m all in on Porzingis tonight.  His price is low enough were he could return HUGE value.  I love starting most PF’s against The Celtics, and last time these guys faced off a few weeks ago, Porzingis racked up 47 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action.  Porzingis is NEVER a sure thing, but the risk is worth the reward in GPP’s tonight.

 

James Harden doesn’t have great career numbers against Miami, but I think you can brush that off tonight.  Howard is out, and Harden’s usage % is going to be sky high.  D- Wade has certainly lost a step in regards to defense this year, and Harden should hit 50 fantasy points tonight.  I also like JUSTICE WINSLOW as a nice safe value play tonight as well, Houston doesn’t play defense, and Winslow should get 30 minutes against them. 

 

Lowry was a huge disappointment last night, and that might make people shy away from him tonight.  Phoenix is the worst team in the NBA, and someone is going to have a field day with these guys.    Again, I’m rolling with Lowry OR Derozan, but not both.  I got burned by Lowry last night, so I will be loyal and play Derozan as my SG in all formats tonight.  I also like Terrance Ross as a RISKY value play.  He can get you a 25 or a 5, you’ve been warned, but these are the kind of plays that win GPP’s. 

 

I m throwing all my eggs in one basket tonight, and that will be T-Wolves Mini-Stacks.  I like Wiggins, Rubio, and Towns ALL to exceed value tonight.  Dieng is a nice play as well because his pricetag hasn’t caught up to him yet.  Im not going to cute with Lavine, or Shabazz or anyone else.  Monroe could have a nice night but Towns is the clear #1 Center option this evening.  Let Rubio get 15 assists to the big guy and double up your points all night long.

 

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2/1

 

My favorite play at center tonight is going to be Rudy Gobert vs Chicago.  The Bulls got DESTROYED by D Jordan last night with his 17 points/ 4 assists/ 20 Rebound/ 1 steal/ 4 block performance.  Chicago is on back to back sets, and Gasol’s defense usually doesn’t improve playing two nights in a row.  Gobert is still priced below the elite centers in the league, but tonight could be the top fantasy scorer at the position.  He’s too cheap tonight and I think his floor is 30 plus points.  I’m all in.

 

Lowry vs DeRozan- One of these guys is going to be on someone’s 1^st place roster tonight.  Technically, Denver is worse against the PG than the SG, but don’t tell that to Monta Ellis who just scored close to 60 fantasy points against them Saturday night.  This is a coin flip.  Lowry is more expensive, and is technically in a better match up, but Derozan could return value if they finish with similar numbers.  Neither is bad play tonight, they are actually both really good plays.  Pairing them together is risky, they basically have to combine for almost 80-85 points for it to work out.  That’s possible, they’ve done it before, but I think I will break them up and play them in different lineups.  Lowry is the better 50/50 play, and I like Derozan in the GPP’s. 

 

Kyrie Irving hasn’t REALLY returned value in the last 3 weeks.  I think that changes tonight, we all know how good this kid is, I think it’s starting to click for him. 

 

Im going to avoid the Brooklyn vs Detroit game.  It’s a massive headache.  Sloan is way too inconsistent, regardless of his matchup, Thad Young is too pricey for me to roll the dice on him, I can’t spend up for Lopez until he stops randomly throwing in a mid twenty point fantasy night every week.  Hes burned me too much.  He’s on a tare right now, and Drummond is lazy, so I don’t blame anyone for paying up for him, it just won’t be me tonight.  Same story on The Detriot side of things.  Reggie Jackson has been losing a few more minutes each night to Jennings, and I want my point guards to finish with 33-36 minutes on the floor.  The rest of the team is in some sort of time share/ injury plagued, nightmare.  I’m gonna pass, and bet the under.

 

The point total that Vegas threw out there today for OKC is INSANE, they basically say that The Thunder are scoring 115 points tonight.  I’m ALL IN on Durant.  Again, coin flip between he and Westbrook, but because of his turnovers, I see Westbrook hovering around 50 tonight and Durant getting closer to 60.  I like Waiters as a cheap risky GPP option too.  

I’m gonna ride the big game of Aaron Gordon and plug him in as a somewhat safe value play.  Since Duncan has been sidelined, the Spurs have been TERRIBLE against opposing PF’s.  You never really think about anyone being a GOOD play against The Spurs because their defense has been so good for so many years, but the numbers don’t lie.   Gordon is cheap, hes coming of a great game, and the stats say he has a good matchup.  You need some value tonight to get Durant/ Lowry/ Derozan/ Lebron/ Wall guys in there. 

 

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