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Friday, September 18, 2015


A BREAKDOWN OF TONIGHTS MLB Starting Pitching

The Quick and Dirty Version

Madison Bumgarner- SF       I can’t do it.  Vegas has him as the biggest favorite, and he will get the win, but I don’t LOVE his numbers enough to justify him being the most expensive option tonight.  111k’s in 133 innings lifetime against Arizona.  Good numbers for sure, but it has to be at least a K per inning for me to pay top dollar.  Last time against Arizona, 5.0 innings, 3 k’s, 1 ER.  The D-Backs offense has been slumping lately, but I get nervous facing Pollock and Goldschmidt regardless, I’ll look elsewhere

Zack Greinke- LAD                 Nah.   Greinke is good at home, The Pirates Offense has been piss poor lately, but Greinke has a career 5.37 ERA vs The Pirates.  That, along with the fact that The Pirates don’t strike out too much against right handed pitching , is enough for me to pass on Zack

Chris Sale- CWS                     Yeah, why not.   Sale hasn’t been sharp in his last couple of starts, and that’s enough to keep his ownership down tonight.  When Sale is ON, he is arguably THE BEST strikeout pitcher in MLB.  Cleveland strikes out a lot against Lefties, and this is going to be a Brilliant play or a complete disaster.  He is a RISKY play tonight, but his upside is so huge, I think he’s worth the gamble.  If he is on, he will be the highest producing Pitcher in DFS tonight, “IF”.

Jose Fernandez- MIA                         I’ll Pass.   Fernandez is NASTY.  Washington strikeout a lot, but there is no way they can let him pitch more than 6 innings tonight, if they do, everyone in the organization should be fired.  I need my SP’s to be able to throw 8 innings minimum to be considered for a GPP play.  He will produce, but the pitch count will scare me too much

Max Scherzer-WAS                PROBABLY   He just pitched a great game against The Marlins last week in Miami.  Miami doesn’t strikeout at a crazy pace, but their offense doesn’t scare me either.  I would say he is SAFER than Sale, but has a lower ceiling with the strikeout potential tonight.  If you’re playing 50/50’s or head to heads, Scherzer is probably the guy to anchor your team

M. Tanaka- NYY                     YES.  Tanaka has looked like a BEAST his last two starts, He is undervalued tonight, I can’t see the Mets beating on him tonight.  The Mets strikeout a lot against Righties, their offense is cooling off, 8 innings, 1 ER, and 8 K’s is quite possible for him tonight.  Good GPP play for the price.

 

Verlander/Cueto                   HEADACHE.  The weather looks tricky, thunderstorms in the middle of the game, these guys have both been on a rollercoaster of highs and lows this season, both look terrible recently.  Cueto is so cheap compared to where he has been all season, but I just can’t get burned by him or mother nature tonight with all the other options.  Let someone else deal with it.  I wouldn’t be FLOORED if Cueto straightned it out and threw a gem, but I can’t bet on that.

Drew Smyly -TB                     I HAVE TO.   The name is scary still.  I’m waiting for the floor to fall out, but it hasn’t yet.  If you’re a numbers player, you HAVE to put Smyly in your squad tonight.  Last game, he threw was against Boston: 6 innings, 11 K’s, 0 ER.  He plays Baltimore tonight at home, last game versus Baltimore: 7 innings, 10 K’s 0 ER.  How about Career vs Baltimore: 34 innings, 39 K’s, 0.79 ERA, 0.74 WHIP.  I have tried to talk myself out of how much I LOVE Smyly tonight, but I can’t.  Anything can happen in MLB, nothing is certain, but I have to look at those numbers, plus The Orioles home/away splits and K rate, and I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY DREW SMYLY TONIGHT

Everyone else                         NO.  Fiers, just got rocked.  Matz is too young and inexperienced.  Porcello is Porcello and I would have to be on bath salts to pay money for him to be on my team.   Ian Kennedy is pitching in Colorado.  Paxton will get rocked tonight.  Heaney is playing Minnesotta at home, I always avoid that situation due to the numerous times I have gotten burned this year.  Gallardo is 76 years old and Seattle’s Home Run potential scares me. 

 

Love Always,

The Draft Demon 

 

 

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