NBA Value Plays 11/16/15

PG- Mario Chalmers

Chalmers isn’t a GREAT value play , because he’s not going to get you 40 points tonight.  However, he is pretty much minimum price across the industry, and I expect him to play 22-26 minutes tonight.  Both Memphis and OKC are playing back to back sets and the second unit might get a few extra minutes tonight.  OKC doesn’t do a good job against opposing PG’s, and I’m going to pencil Chalmers in for 25 points tonight.  In the past 3 games, Chalmers has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per minute.  If you want to get Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Harden in tonight, you need a few value plays like this to make it work. 

 

SG – Monta Ellis

George Hill and Stuckey are OUT tonight.  Monta Ellis will take over at point guard.  Last week, if it was the same situation, I wouldn’t have suggested Ellis because his shooting was TERRIBLE.  Now, he looks like he is regaining his old form and should see 35 minutes tonight against Rose.  Ellis might FILL UP the stat sheet tonight, hes going to have the opportunity to put up numbers, you just have to PRAY he finds his stroke early.  This is a true boom or bust play, but since he is priced middle of the road, and has the POTENTIAL to match Jimmy Butler’s numbers tonight, at 2/3’s the price, it might be worth it.

 

SF- Jeff Green

I know, this one isn’t very “Sneaky”.  Green has earned himself a place in the starting rotation.  He has a MONEY matchup tonight because OKC can not stop the SG’s or SF’s.  The last 2 games Green has score over 30 fantasy points each time.  He is still bottom of the barrel price, I don’t love the SF position tonight (Other than George), if you’re gonna punt, Green gives you price relief, with the potential of still getting you somewhere around 30 points.  He’s going to be highly owned, but its silly NOT to put him in there at his price.  Let the others get cute and fade him.

PF- Terrence Jones

Jones TORE IT UP Saturday with 26 pts, 1 stl, 1 assist, 3 blocks in 40 minutes.  His price is still mid-range and I love his matchup tonight.   Vegas say’s Houston scores a lot of points tonight, and I expect a decent chunk of that to come from Jones.  He will go up against Amir Johnson, or Sullinger, regardless, neither of them can play defense.  I would LOVE to see what Jones can do if he can get 35 minutes tonight.  After looking at everyone else’s predictions, apparently I’m the only one who thinks he has a monster game tonight, but I have to go with my numbers and predictions, I think Jones finishes in the Top 3 at PF when all is said and done.  I can’t talk myself out of it.

 

C – Ian Mahinmi

This guy is cheap, and has a GREAT matchup.  Indiana is thin tonight, and I think The Pacers will pick on Noah and Gasol’s inability to stop anyone.  The Bulls SUCK at rebounding, and opposing Centers have beat them up all season long(and last season too).   I think Mahinmi gets a double-double tonight if he can stay on the court for over 27 minutes.  At that price, that’s HUGE value.  Howard is the expensive guy to own, Zaza is the mid range, and Big Ian is the top “Value” play.