WEEK 4 Break down

Jax at Indy

48 PTS Indy-9

Big line.  Vegas thinks Andrew Luck and The Colts are done sucking, and it’s time to be the team we all expected them to be in August.  I still think the line is a bit too large, but The Colts should absolutely score some points against this awful Jaguar’s defense at home.  The Jags look pretty good versus the run only giving up 3.3 yards per carry, but all they’ve really faced is Jon Stewart, Lamar Miller and Blount.  That’s not really a scary group of RB’s.  Frank Gore has looked decent his last two games, averaging 15 touches 80 plus yards and a TD.  I’m not a huge Gore believer, but if he gets 15 touches again, I expect him to hover around the 100 yard mark and find the end zone once, maybe twice, and at his current price, that’s a pretty good value.  I like Gore as a safe play in a 50/50 tourney or head to head.  Andrew Luck is actually QUESTIONABLE to play!!  His shoulder is banged up and he is a game time decision.  I’m staying away from Luck, Hilton, Moncrief and Fleener this week.  I don’t want my DFS squad anchored by a somewhat slumping QB with a bad throwing arm.  IF Luck doesn’t play, I think Gores touches jump to 22-25 which could really boost his value.  MONITOR CLOSELY. 

Indy’s Defense has been pretty piss poor recently as well.  Last two weeks they’ve given up over 600 yards and 4 TD’s to Fitzpatrick, and Mariota, yikes.  I’m not saying Bortles is going to have a monster game, but he could have the best game of the season so far.  Do the coin flip: Heads Allen Robinson, tails Allen Hurns.  It is IMPOSSIBLE to accurately predict which one of these guys is going to have a better game.  Problem is, I think one of them will.  If you’re ballsy enough, do two almost identical lineups, one with Robinson, than one with Hurns with a little extra $$ to upgrade somewhere.  Indy run D has been ok, and Yeldon has to show me more before I plug him in.

Giants at Buffalo

45.5 Bills-5

I said it last week, and I’m gonna say it again, I think Bill’s secondary is a victim of circumstance.  They didn’t have a stellar game against Miami last week, but they got the job done.  I want nothing to do with Eli, there are too many other options at QB this week I like more regardless if The Bills technically are the second worst passing D in The NFL.  That being said, I will pass on Beckham JR as well.  OBJ won’t have a BAD game, but he needs 135 and 2 TD’s to justify his huge price tag.  He will be widely owned, but I won’t be one of the guys to pony up for him this week.  I’m also not touching The Giants nightmare running game.

I WILL pick on the Giant’s shitty secondary, which is technically THE WORST in The NFL.  I think Taylor will have a good game, he is inexpensive, I have no problem with playing him.  Sammy Watkins is OUT, making ROBERT WOODS one of my favorite sleeper value plays of Week 4.  Woods is their second best option and I think he will get targeted 10 or 12 times.  I also love CHARLES CLAY this week.  Clay has looked really solid and The Giants stink versus the Tight End.  Both Reed and Tamme have had big games the past two weeks and Clay will keep that going this week.  If you want to save at TE, Clay is the play. 

Carolina at TB

40 PTS, Carolina -3

Low over under, not interested in any Tampa Players.  On The Panthers side, Cam Newton is always a SOLID play.  Newton looks good, and is always a top 5 option in my opinion.  I don’t LOVE Greg Olsen this week, Bucs have been pretty good against opposing TE’s, I will pass on him with his inflated price.  TB’s secondary and passing D is decent, this will be the first week I won’t play Ginn either.  The Bucs were BURNED by Alf Blue last week, Jon Stewart would make for a nice play except for the fact that it’s Jon Stewart.  It looks like he will play, but no thanks.  I think Newton will run on these guys, and will spread out the production evenly, I’m calling for 340 total yard and 3 TD’s, top 5 numbers, but not the BEST fantasy option this week.    

Philly at Redskins

44 PTS Philly -3

I think people will have a lot of Eagles in their lineup this week, I won’t be one of them.  They looked like CRAP the past two weeks, and Bradford has been PATHETIC.  The Skins have only given up 275 yards per game, second best in The NFL.  When you think of good Defenses, The Washington Redskins don’t come to mind, but maybe they “Aren’t who we thought they were!”  I’m not touching the Morris/ Jones nightmare.  Jordan Reed has looked good, and is their best receiving option, he makes for an INTRESTING play, but I’m loading up on Graham and Clay this week instead

Oakland at Bears

44 PTS Oakland -3

MY FAVORITE GAME OF THE WEEK.  I am LOADING my lineups with this much improved Oakland offense.  Derek Carr is my PLAY OF THE WEEK for one simple reason, Chicago Defense is an absolute joke.   The Bears have given up 105 points through 3 weeks, that’s not a typo.  They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, I don’t care that they are in Chicago, I don’t care what Vegas says about this game.  Latavius Murray has been a beast, and is my favorite RB of the week as well.  Murray could be the #1 producing running back of Week 4, at a much cheaper price compared to AP, Charles, and Lacy.  Murray will be heavily owned, but that’s ok.  Amari Cooper made Hayden look like a chump last week, and this kid is the real deal.  Crabtree has had some really nice games, and he could have a huge game at even a cheaper price than Cooper.  I am paring these four guys in every 3 man rotation possible.   Pairing Carr with Latavius could be genius if he catches 5-7 balls out of the backfield for double points.  Putting all four of these guys in the same lineup is too risky, but I will be loading up on them.  Carr’s FLOOR is 250 yards and 2 TD’s this week with his CEILING being 400 yards with 4, he’s CHEAP, he looks legit, and has the best matchup on the board.  I’m all in.

Cutler is questionable, and since he doesn’t care about anything, my guess is he sits, leaving Jimmy Clausen at the helm.  Matt Forte will be heavily owned, and will see 25 touches plus, but this game could be a blowout.  Vegas and SAFE PLAYING says I’m wrong about this, but I’m loading up on Raiders, and not playing Forte.  Maybe I’m wrong, that’s just my crazy prediction, and my strategy if I want a top 5% finish.

Houston at Atlanta

47 PTS Atlanta -6

Devonta Freeman was AMAZING last week.  His ownership will be through the roof this week.  I don’t blame people for playing him this week, but I will be on the contrary, and won’t have him.  It takes more than one amazing game for me to base all of my lineups around 1 guy who had 1 good game.  He is talented, and has the pedigree, but he won’t get 170 yards and 2 TD’s this week against Houston.  The Texans weakness is their pass defense, and Matt Ryan/Julio Jones should exploit that.  I think this will be the plan of attack going in.  The Ryan/Julio express combo is a great one this week, Jones is probably the best WR in the league, The Texans are prone to giving up big plays, and Jones will probably be the #1 WR at the end of the day.  I love Ryan, I love Jones, even though he’s incredibly expensive, but if you are stuck between OBJ and Jones, Julio is the play.

I want nothing to do with Arian Foster if he plays.  He is WAY too expensive to pay for coming off a sugery a few weeks ago.  If Atlanta jumps out to a quick lead, Foster will sit to be safe early.  If Foster DOESN’T play, I like Alf Blue as a great value play.  He is coming off a huge game last week, and Falcons run defense stinks.

Chiefs at Bengals

45 PTS Bengals -3.5

KC Defense looked like Swiss cheese last week, granted it was against Rodgers at Lambeau, but they just couldn’t stop the passing attack.  I called the AJ Green Show last week, and I’m calling it again.  We quickly forget how talented Green is after his sub-par performances in Week 1 and 2.  Green is my second favorite WR on the board only behind Julio.  Andy Dalton looks good, and is a top 3 QB option this week because of his price tag.  I like Marvin Jones as a somewhat sleeper, and Sanu hasn’t been awesome, but is always capable of a big game now and then.  Again, I’m not touching Hill and Gio because I have no idea how it’s going to be split up.  The Dalton/ Green combo is a slightly cheaper version of the Ryan/Julio combo and could do just as well. 

I’m staying away from The KC offense this week, Charles and Maclin are coming off nice games, but The Bengals Defense plays well at home.  I don’t blame anyone for playing Charles, but I’ll pass on him this week.

Cleveland at San Diego

44.5 PTS Chargers-7

I want nothing to do with The Cleveland offense.  Crowell BURNED me AGAIN last week, the man is a fantasy migraine that I can’t deal with anymore.  Chargers D, isn’t good, I just don’t trust any Brown’s player to actually throw money at them. 

I don’t like the RB situation in San Diego with Woodhead stealing some touches and production from Gordon, I’ll pass.  There are too many other QB’s this week to consider Rivers.  It’s up to you to take the Keenan Allen gamble.  He is somewhat expensive, and will have Hayden on him.  Go for it, it could be genius, or could knock you right out of the money. 

Green Bay at SF

48 PTS Pack -7.5

Rodgers went mental last week.  Big Ben and Palmer threw for 700 combined yards on this Sf Defense the past two weeks.  Vegas says lots of scoring.  It’s shaping up to be a huge day for Rodgers, Cobb, and James Jones.  You can’t really try to outthink this one.  Rodgers might not be the #1 Fantasy QB of Week 4, but he is the SAFEST.   HE is the most expensive QB, and rightfully so.  Cobb looked great last week, and should be a top WR, James Jones is still cheap enough, and will probably get you second tier WR numbers at a third tier price.  I like all of them.  Lacy is too expensive for me.  Projection:  Rodgers throws for 330 yards and 3 TD’s, 2 of them to Cobb, 1 of them to Jones. 

Kapernick looked like Jimmy Clausen last week,  67 yards and 4 picks.  Kapernick was hands down THE WORST DFS play of Week 3.  I’m avoiding him and the 49ers WR’s like Ebola.  I WILL play Carlos Hyde.  I think Hyde is an animal, he should get 20 touches, Packers looked bad against Charles last week, and I expect Hyde to get over 100 yards and a TD.  I also think Hyde will NOT be widely owned this week.

St Louis at Arizona

44 PTS Arizona-7

This will be my FADE game of Week 4.  I want nothing to do with it other than maybe Arizona D (which is expensive).  I think Rams Defense is underrated, and I don’t see Palmer throwing 350 and 3 TD’s this week.  Palmer, and Larry Fitz will be heavily owned, and I will cross my fingers and hope it ends up Arizona-19, St Louis 13

Vikings at Denver

42.5 PTS Denver -7

This might be the only week of the season I won’t recommend Adrian Petersen.  Denver D has looked really good against the run, and because AP is so expensive, he needs 135 yards and 2 TD’s to make it worth the gamble.  I just don’t see it THIS week.  Charles Johnson is out with ribs, and I like Mike Wallace as a lottery ticket this week.  I expect The Vikings to play from behind and be forced to throw the ball a lot, and Wallace is their only deep threat guy.  Wallace has not been good this year, but they are going to have to throw it, and he will get the looks.  Wallace is not a smart/good play, but has the chance to get lucky and find the end zone. 

Vikings give up points to the stud WR.  Calvin Johnson and Keenan Allen have beat them up pretty good and I think this is another Demarius Thomas game.  If you can find a way to put Green, Julio, and Thomas in the same lineup, GO FOR IT, I think it’s the winning combo this week.  Manning hasn’t excited me yet, and I like other QBs more at the same price.

Dallas at Saints

48 Points Saints -3

How much do you like to gamble?  Brees will play, how good will he be?  WHAT IF Brees is back to almost 100%?  What if Dallas D has a repeat performance of last week’s ASS WHOOPIN that Atlanta handed them?  What if Brees throws for 375 yards and 3 or 4 TD’s on Sunday Night, with two of them going to Cooks, and 1 of them to Ingram while he runs in another ?  How awesome would it be watching your standings vault up the list because nobody else had the balls to bet on this outcome?  Is this Probable?  Probably not.  Is this possible?  YES.  If you like to gamble, and you don’t mind the possibility of having 1 terrible lineup, DO IT.

I want nothing to do with Dallas.  I don’t believe in Randle, he isn’t that good.  Witten is the only guy I would throw in at flex if the numbers worked out. 

Detroit at Seattle

43 PTS, Seahawks -9.5

The Lions (MY Lions, dicks), are a mess on both sides of the ball.  Stafford is terrible, Abdulah gets 10 carries a game, Megatron has lost a step.  The Lions face the best Defense (Especially at home) this week.  I WANT NONE OF IT!! 

Seahawks will score.  Lynch is a game time decision, and it being a Monday night affair, STAY AWAY.  Last 2 weeks, The lions have given up TD’s to Kyle Rudolph, and Owen Daniels, making Jimmy Graham my top TE play of the week.  If you have the money, he is by far, the best TE on the board, and worth the money.  Wilson will have a great game, but I see a lot of clock management, and no need to throw the ball 30 times in this one.  Wilson will have a good game, just not a top 3 or 4 performance.