5/6

 

Crazy DFS night tonight, lots of options, lots of outcomes.

Watch the weather in San Diego, possible showers from 7:00-9:00 could ruin your night if you are all in on Noah S.  If it goes, and the rain moves, he is the top option tonight with probably the highest ceiling.  I’m fading Bumgarner, Colorado doesn’t strike out enough for me to let my entire lineup ride on him.  I think Greinke is a good play against Atlanta, and his recent struggles and other options tonight might keep his ownership % down.  I have to be all in on Chen against Philly.  Philly is batting .166 against Lefties this season and striking out 33% of the time!!  That is INSANE.  I have to go with him tonight, I have no choice, those numbers are just too good not to play him.  If he goes 8 with 1 ER, and 8 strikeouts I will punch myself in the testicles for not trusting my math and instincts if I don’t get him in there. 

Cole Hamels has not looked good this season and a Detroit stack could get the job done tonight.   Miggy has ridiculous numbers against him, and Kinsler and Upton are also in a good spot to produce.

I have to go with the Cinci stack again as well.  They have a cake matchup in a good hitters park and all have been swinging fairly well as of late.  Phillips in the cleanup spot at his current price is a nice play.

Ricky Nolasco gives up BOMBS.  I think Melky, Navarro, Abreu and even Garcia have a good chance of taking him long tonight.

Tajuan Walker has been mint this season, but historically pitches bad on the road and Minute Maid.  Altuve should produce again tonight, and I like Gattis.

Doug Fister is garbage, and I love the Seager/ Cano mini-stack 

The Pirates have had some success against Martinez, and I think Pittsburgh bats will be way under owned tonight.  I really like Polanco as a sneaky play

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5/5

 

TOUGH SLATE tonight.  No real chalk, no real aces.

Jacob Degrom is the clear #1 SP tonight against San Diego, big favorite with a very low Over/Under.  Even in this situation, I don’t see an Arrieta like performance tonight.

Adam Conley against Arizona is an interesting play tonight.  Hes coming off  a real nice outing, Diamonbacks are a much better home team than away, and tend to strike out at a decent clip against lefties.  I think Conley is a decent GPP play with a fair amount of upside tonight.

Wade Miley is coming off the best game of his career and pitches against Houston tonight.  The Astros strike out a ton against lefties, and because they scored 14 runs last night, I think people will shy away from Miley tonight keeping his ownership way down.  On a night with not many predicted strikeouts,  you got to get em where you can.   Degrom, Conley, and Miley are my favorite GPP options

I think the stack of the night is Donaldson, Edwin E, and Bautista at home against Holland.  These guys have the most upside and could win you a large GPP, but be warned, when this group gets cold, they have been ICE COLD this season.  None of these guys are “Safe”, but all have serious Home Run potential tonight.

Stanton, Realmuto,  and Ozuna are on a monster TARE, I’m riding it tonight against Lefty Robbie Ray.

EVERYONE is going to be all over the Cinci/Brewers game because 2 terrible pitchers face off.  IF this game ends 3-2, and you fade both teams, you will have a huge head start on 80% of the field tonight.  Weirdly enough both pitchers have really good BVP against each other……….just saying.

Erik Johnson sucks against lefties………BIG PAPI

2^nd base is tough tonight if you play Miley and take Altuve out of the equation.  I will roll the dice on Brett Lawrie tonight against Owens.

I would go all GPPs tonight, it’s a weird slate where nothing is really safe and I see nothing I can anchor Head to Heads or 50/50’s with

 

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5/3

 

I’m not in love with Arrieta tonight.  I just have a bad feeling he has a slightly off game.  I can’t justify paying top $$ for him with his situation tonight.  I am rolling with Harvey at a much discounted price.   I really love anyone going against Atlanta, but Harvey looked like he may have regained his dominant form last outing.  He is in a better spot than Jake, and the price difference is enough to sneak a Trout or Stanton in your lineup.  

 

My low ownership, make-or-break, GPP Pitcher tonight is going to be Nick Tropeano.  Milwaukee strikes out at 28% against righties so far and I don’t think Braun will play tonight.  If you want to stack bats, and pivot off Harvey and Arrieta,  I think Tropeano is the way to go.   Stacking against The Brewers and  Guerra is a brilliant play tonight, and I am 99% positive Tropeano will at least get the W tonight.

  A lot of people will be on Sonny Gray tonight , but I watched his last outing against Detroit, It wasn’t pretty. 

 Matt Moore is a decent play against LAD, and Wacha is in a good spot to succeed as well.

REAL BALLSY and sneaky play is Niese at home against Cubs.  We are talking 2% ownership with the possibility of 7 K’s tonight. 

A Rod is on a TARE and in a good spot tonight.  Stacking Orioles against a TERRIBLE Severino could be huge.

I like Josh Donaldson and Tulo tonight to finally get their shit together at home against Perez

I LOVE Realmuto leading off with Stanton cleaning up against Corbin

I Love the Longoria/ Pearce mini-stack against Kazmir

I have a weird feeling that the line isn’t big enough in the CWS and Boston game.  I think Wright finally gets shelled tonight ( Navarro and Austin Jackson)

I like Altuve tonight leading off against a rookie who has zero control.  3 walks and 3 SB’s is fine with me.

I hate taking hitters IN Kansas City, but Chris Young has been SHELLED so far this season.  Give me Harper and Ramos.

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4/27/16

 

Tonight is the complete opposite from last night’s slate, lots of hitting to choose from, very few logical pitching choices. 

I am fairly certain at this point that basically the top two choices will be rained out tonight: Arrieta and Gio G.  Even if the game gets played, the weather is so bleak, the chances of getting a shortened outing because of a delay is enough for me to take them right off the board.

Matt Harvey is at home against Cinci and I would assume he will be the highest owned SP tonight due to lack of options.  My problem is, he just hasn’t looked right yet.  His strikeouts are way down and something mechanically isn’t working for him yet, I don’t blame anyone for playing him, I just don’t see that 9 K game yet which would justify his price tag tonight.

Sonny Gray and Iwakuma are the best options tonight in my opinion, and should both perform efficiently enough for you to make some $$.  Gray is facing a Detroit team who has not only been striking out against Righties at an alarming clip, but just can’t hit in general as well.  Verlander may get ROCKED by Oakland’s Lefties, so a win is definitely possible.  Iwakuma has GREAT numbers versus Houston, they strikeout more than any other team in MLB, Houston is slumping, and Iwakuma pitches better at home.  No matter how hard I dig, Gray and Iwakuma keep equaling the best plays tonight

 

If you want to get REAL Ballsy, I mean drunkin Vegas, cocaine , strippers, making it rain on  the Craps table BALLSY, NOBODY will be on Martin Perez tonight.  If you want a huge Pittsburgh stack, you need a low $$ SP to fit everyone in.  The Yanks stink vs Lefties, and when the SLUMP, they SLUMP collectively as a team.  Hail Mary, HUGE GPP contrarian play, roll with MARTIN PEREZ.  If he can sneak out a win, 1 or 2 ER, and 7 ks, that could be HUGE

There are SOOOO many SP’s to pick on tonight, you can stack a shitload of teams. 

Lefties vs Bud Norris (especially Travis Shaw)

Legit the ENTIRE Mets squad versus Mascot (Conforto, Duda, Asdrubal)

Every player from both teams in The Colorado game (Favorites : Reynolds, Arenado, Marte, Polanco, McCutchen)

I like Segura and Yasmany Tomas against an as of late TERRIBLE Wainwright

I LOVE DIAZ and Hazelbaker against Corbin tonight

I like Cruz and Cano against a struggling McHugh in Seattle tonight

I LOVE Stanton tonight against Kazmir, LA is Stanton’s new Coors Field apparently

The Dodgers have a CAKE matchup, but I just don’t trust ANY hitters on this team.  Gun to my head, I’ll throw a Puig in a lineup.

 

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4/21/16

 

I don’t think tonight is the night to get cute with SP.  Arrieta looks like he has some weather to deal with , and that coupled with the fact that he is the most expensive guy on the board, I won’t be paying up for him.  I think G Cole is the best option on the board against The Padres, and Dallas Keuchel is a close second,  pitching against a Texas team that historically strikes out a lot against lefties.  Cole is the safer option of the two.   Edinson Volquez might be a popular play tonight but his BVP against Detroit is TERRIBLE!!  No thanks.  My sneaky play is actually James Shields, I don’t think he will be highly owned, and could strike out 6-8 guys tonight, and with no true STUD going in a good situation, it’s not out of the question that those numbers take the cake tonight.

 

My favorite stack of the night is KC.  I love the OVER in this game.  Escobar,  Mouse, Cain, Hosmer, Perez and Gordon are all in great spots tonight to rake.  Shuffle them around, and get as many combos as you can with these 6 guys in your lineups.

 

I’m all in on Edwin E tonight.  Great numbers throughout his career in Camden Yards, paired with great BVP against Tillman, AND a big over/under with Toronto favored, makes him my top play of the night.

 

I think Beltran has a ton of value tonight.  I love his matchup, I love him hitting in the 3 hole, and he is still too cheap to pass up in this situation.  

 

My top sneaky play of the night is……………………….Jason Castro.  Good BVP, great numbers in Texas, and he’s overdue to breakout of this slump.  Even with a small slate, I think his ownership will still be down under 5%.  Demons prediction: 2-4 with a double and a HR.  

 

 

3/31/16

 

Crazy night AGAIN tonight because of resting players , and huge point spreads.  Don’t bother playing 50/50’s, because you are either going to nail it tonight with your lineup, or fail miserably. 

 

Both JR Smith and Kyrie Irving are Game Times tonight because of illness, they SHOULD smoke the Nets (Especially with Lopez Out), so they might just rest them regardless.  Love, Tristan, and Lebron are all in GREAT position tonight, and I like Lebron coming off a rest.  Unless it’s a total blowout, and Lebron doesn’t play the 4^th, I would say he is SAFE for 45 points, that doesn’t happen very often.  He is the stud to start at SF tonight, and just hope The Nets can keep it within 15 points.   Shane Larkin is a nice punt tonight at PG (especially if Delledova gets the start), and Thomas Robinson is coming off a monster game against Orlando.  Both of them are risky, but are so cheap they are worth the gamble.

 

Orlando is a MESS, I’m not touching anyone on the team.  Illysova and Vucevic are both back tonight and will eat into Gordon and Dedmons minutes.  Oladipo doesn’t play well (stats wise) against Ellis.  Elf has been on a boom streak, but I’m gonna skip him tonight on a bull shit hunch I have.  I like Paul George, I like George Hill, and I like Monta Ellis.  Vegas has The Pacers scoring a lot, so there will be some production for sure.  The player that really sticks out for me is Mahinmi.  Orlando is BY FAR the worst team in the NBA against Centers lately.  Big Ian has seen minutes consistently in the 30’s, and has been on a 30 PLUS fantasy point streak for the past 3 games.  I think he gets somewhere between 30-38 tonight. 

 

I love Harden tonight, even when he plays “bad” he still gets you 45 points.  Good matchup tonight for The Rockets against a Bulls squad that legit can’t play D, anywhere.  I like Beverly as a big value play tonight, I hate Ariza every night, and Howard will either get you 25 tonight or 55.  There’s too much value elsewhere at Center tonight for me to pay up for him.  My “SUPER SNEAKY 0.6% OWNED PUNT VALUE DON’T DO IT BECAUSE ITS STUPID AND WON’T WORK PLAY” tonight is Motiejunas.  His minutes are down, he looks like crap, but I will take a one of my bullshit hunches on this and hope he can get me a sneaky 20-25 points at minimum salary.  (I am NOT advising you to do this, it’s a bad idea)

 

Two complete crap teams with complete crap D’s, will play each other tonight in the Crap Bowl of the evening with Denver playing New Orleans.  I like Will Barton for Denver, he’s still cheap enough, and has averaged 35 fantasy points the past 4 games.  Barton is as streaky as they come, be warned, when he crashes, he crashes bad.  Will Barton can turn into Will Brimley within minutes.  Ajinca, Cunningham, and Hamilton are all good value plays for The Pelicans.

 

The OKC game is DANGEROUS.  There is a VERY possible chance that Westbrook and Durant only play 24-27 minutes tonight because they dish out such a severe ass whopping.  If they both play 30 plus minutes, they both WILL get 50 points a piece, minimum.  I like Ibaka as a pivot tonight.   Paul, Jordan and Reddick all will not play tonight.  I love Jamal Crawford, and Cole Aldrich for LAC this evening.  Aldrich has a tough matchup on paper, but the guy is nearly a fantasy point per minute guy when he’s on the floor, regardless of matchup.  30 points is NOT out of the question for him tonight, and at min price, that’s HUGE.  Austin Rivers could return value fairly easy, but not a guarantee. 

 

The Celts D has been really hit or miss since the All Star break.  They definitely play better at home, which doesn’t help them tonight in Portland.  CJ McCollum is one of my favorite plays at SG tonight, and is safe for 30 points, with a ceiling of 45 points.  That’s a big window, but Vegas says they will score a bunch, and that’s where I see it coming from.  I like Isaiah Thomas is always in play, and is probably one of the most consistent fantasy scores in the NBA.  He seems to always score between 34-44 points every night.  Lillard and The Blazers have been awful against the PG basically this entire season. 

 

My favorite base 5 tonight to build around  are Lebron, Harden, Thomas, Mahinmi, and Crawford. 

 

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3/23

 

Lets do a real quick basic breakdown for tonight.  Again, this time of year ANYTHING can happen, do not BANK on anything, make your best predictions, and let it fly.  Don’t beat yourself up if you get smoked tonight, or any other night until the season is over, ITS NOT YOUR FAULT…………………………..its not your fault.

 

I’m skipping the Cleveland game, The Bucks have been a nightmare lately, Lebron is worth rostering, and his ownership won’t be too high, hes just not my favorite play at SF.

 

I love the Wall, Beal, and Porter stack tonight.  I always like any team going against Atlanta, and since these guys JUST played, MAYBE this one is a little easier to predict.  For Atlanta, gun to my head, I will give Al Horford a whirl

 

I don’t love the Toronto/ Boston game.  If Val was out, I would be all in on Bismack B, but it looks like Val is a go.

 

I love Oladipo tonight against Pistons team without KCP, but he just got REALLY expensive this morning.  He could get you 40 tonight, but so could Booker or Wiggins at a discounted price.  Revenge game for Harris???  Maybe, but he hasn’t been lighting it up lately.  Drummond can make or break you any night, I have a feeling he has a big game and scores over 45 fantasy points.

 

The only player I’m playing tonight in the Spurs game is Leonard.  I think he matches Lebron’s production tonight for a couple thousand dollars cheaper.

 

Call me crazy, but even though two total crap defenses face off in Denver tonight, I ain’t touching it.

 

I DO like the Lakers, and Phoenix game.  Chandler probably won’t play, and that makes Leur a plug and play.  Some sites have Len and Teletovic as the starters, but I think Leur will start instead.  Love Booker tonight, love Knight tonight.  As a sneaky play I like Jordan Clarkson at SG, especially if Russell doesn’t play. 

 

If you want to just take last games stats in the Portland matchup, multiply it by .85 (because of the overtime), you might have a somewhat safe prediction on these guys.  Deron Williams will be the highest owned PG tonight because of the monster he put up last game against Lillard, but beware.  Deron Williams COULD disappear and get you 20-25 points tonight.  Dirk is on a tare, he’s worth the $$, Mejri is TOO CHEAP not to throw in a few lineups, and I like Plumlee again with Meyers Leonard already ruled out. 

 

I’m ALL IN on Draymond Green.  MINT matchup, great career numbers, GSW is home, and Curry hasn’t lit up Chris Paul very much the past few years.  If you’re going to do multiple lineups, and you want to anchor them with one guy, I have to believe Green has the highest floor and Ceiling.  Draymond Green could be the highest fantasy producer tonight, slightly above John Wall.  Your head to heads or 50/50’s should absolutely have both Wall and Green in them

 

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