3/31/16

 

Crazy night AGAIN tonight because of resting players , and huge point spreads.  Don’t bother playing 50/50’s, because you are either going to nail it tonight with your lineup, or fail miserably. 

 

Both JR Smith and Kyrie Irving are Game Times tonight because of illness, they SHOULD smoke the Nets (Especially with Lopez Out), so they might just rest them regardless.  Love, Tristan, and Lebron are all in GREAT position tonight, and I like Lebron coming off a rest.  Unless it’s a total blowout, and Lebron doesn’t play the 4^th, I would say he is SAFE for 45 points, that doesn’t happen very often.  He is the stud to start at SF tonight, and just hope The Nets can keep it within 15 points.   Shane Larkin is a nice punt tonight at PG (especially if Delledova gets the start), and Thomas Robinson is coming off a monster game against Orlando.  Both of them are risky, but are so cheap they are worth the gamble.

 

Orlando is a MESS, I’m not touching anyone on the team.  Illysova and Vucevic are both back tonight and will eat into Gordon and Dedmons minutes.  Oladipo doesn’t play well (stats wise) against Ellis.  Elf has been on a boom streak, but I’m gonna skip him tonight on a bull shit hunch I have.  I like Paul George, I like George Hill, and I like Monta Ellis.  Vegas has The Pacers scoring a lot, so there will be some production for sure.  The player that really sticks out for me is Mahinmi.  Orlando is BY FAR the worst team in the NBA against Centers lately.  Big Ian has seen minutes consistently in the 30’s, and has been on a 30 PLUS fantasy point streak for the past 3 games.  I think he gets somewhere between 30-38 tonight. 

 

I love Harden tonight, even when he plays “bad” he still gets you 45 points.  Good matchup tonight for The Rockets against a Bulls squad that legit can’t play D, anywhere.  I like Beverly as a big value play tonight, I hate Ariza every night, and Howard will either get you 25 tonight or 55.  There’s too much value elsewhere at Center tonight for me to pay up for him.  My “SUPER SNEAKY 0.6% OWNED PUNT VALUE DON’T DO IT BECAUSE ITS STUPID AND WON’T WORK PLAY” tonight is Motiejunas.  His minutes are down, he looks like crap, but I will take a one of my bullshit hunches on this and hope he can get me a sneaky 20-25 points at minimum salary.  (I am NOT advising you to do this, it’s a bad idea)

 

Two complete crap teams with complete crap D’s, will play each other tonight in the Crap Bowl of the evening with Denver playing New Orleans.  I like Will Barton for Denver, he’s still cheap enough, and has averaged 35 fantasy points the past 4 games.  Barton is as streaky as they come, be warned, when he crashes, he crashes bad.  Will Barton can turn into Will Brimley within minutes.  Ajinca, Cunningham, and Hamilton are all good value plays for The Pelicans.

 

The OKC game is DANGEROUS.  There is a VERY possible chance that Westbrook and Durant only play 24-27 minutes tonight because they dish out such a severe ass whopping.  If they both play 30 plus minutes, they both WILL get 50 points a piece, minimum.  I like Ibaka as a pivot tonight.   Paul, Jordan and Reddick all will not play tonight.  I love Jamal Crawford, and Cole Aldrich for LAC this evening.  Aldrich has a tough matchup on paper, but the guy is nearly a fantasy point per minute guy when he’s on the floor, regardless of matchup.  30 points is NOT out of the question for him tonight, and at min price, that’s HUGE.  Austin Rivers could return value fairly easy, but not a guarantee. 

 

The Celts D has been really hit or miss since the All Star break.  They definitely play better at home, which doesn’t help them tonight in Portland.  CJ McCollum is one of my favorite plays at SG tonight, and is safe for 30 points, with a ceiling of 45 points.  That’s a big window, but Vegas says they will score a bunch, and that’s where I see it coming from.  I like Isaiah Thomas is always in play, and is probably one of the most consistent fantasy scores in the NBA.  He seems to always score between 34-44 points every night.  Lillard and The Blazers have been awful against the PG basically this entire season. 

 

My favorite base 5 tonight to build around  are Lebron, Harden, Thomas, Mahinmi, and Crawford. 

 

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