6/1/16

 

Let’s start June off with some HUGE WINS

Ortiz is expensive tonight, but is basically the chalk at 1^st base.   He is in Camden tonight against Mike Wright.  Lefties are hitting .354 against Wright this season and Ortiz has 2 home runs in only 5 AB’s vs Wright.  His price is so high that his ownership may be slightly down. 

 

Scherzer is a huge favorite on the board and Grinders has him finishing with the most DFS points tonight.  I personally will be fading him in GPP’s.  In 13 innings vs Philly this season, Scherzer has allowed 12 hits, 4 ER, 2 HRs, and 14 K’s.  These are good numbers, but not worthy of paying top dollar in my opinion.  He is safe, and head to heads or 50/50’s he’s your guy, but I don’t think he will be on the roster of the winning GPP’s tonight.

 

Me likey Shoemaker as a nice GPP play tonight with big K potential.   He has 23 strikeouts in the past two outings, and has career 0.46 ERA against Detroit in 3 starts.  The Tigers do strike out a lot, and if he can shut down Miggy and V mart, he could be looking at another 10K night, and at his price, that has a huge value.  Detroit’s bats can always catch fire, and Shoemaker could absolutely get shelled, but the potential is there if things go his way tonight

 

The Yankees stink, but the fear that McCann or Beltran take Sanchez deep tonight is enough for me to stay clear of this one.

 

I love Ozuna tonight against Niese in Miami.  I also would throw Stanton in if he plays (doubtful)

 

Lester has a pretty good matchup on paper, I just feel he is overdue for a shelling.

 

My other BALLSY GPP play tonight is actually Robbie Ray.  Houston strike outs almost 30% against Lefties, and Ray has pitched well OUTSIDE of Arizona this season.  Altuve and a red hot Springer really scare me, but if he can avoid damage from these guys, there are plenty of K’s to be found deeper in this lineup.  If you want Rockies galore, you need to get cute tonight……………….

 

Archer has been a mess this year, and has some pretty crappy BVP against MY Royals.  Alcides Escobar is all or nothing, but I will take a shot on him tonight leading off.  I’m also gonna ride The Cain/ Morales Train as well.  Tampa kills lefties, Duffy is not a smart play.

 

The Rockies put up 47 runs last night with 100 Home Runs, they get Lamb tonight.  GROSS.  I went with the lefties last night, I will swith it to the righties tonight.  DJ, Story, Arenado, Raburn, and Garneau  will be my stack.  Remember, The Reds bullpen is the worst in MLB, so ANY Colorado player is a GOOD play tonight.  They are gonna be HUGELY owned, but if they score another 15 PLUS, I’m gonna nut punch myself for fading this game.

 

I think King Felix is a very safe play tonight along with Scherzer.   Padres don’t scare anyone. 

 

A few Cheaper plays:  Bourn, Revere, Harrison, Buetera and some of the cheaper Arizona bats when lineup is announced.  (If you want to pivot off Ortiz, Goldschmidt is my go to guy tonight.  He’s heating up, and overdue for a multi-homer game)

 

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5/16/16

 

Tough night with NO ACES on the board.  Good night to cut back on the 50/50’s and go GPP crazy.

Zimmerman should be the top pitching option tonight, but that does not mean he isn’t risky.   The Twins strike out a ton, and have a low BA this season, but can mash home runs.  Sano, Plouffe, Park and Dozier are legit threats to take Zimmerman deep.  IF Zimmerman can avoid the long ball tonight he should be in a good spot to get the win and 7-9 K’s. 

I’m liking Adam Conley  against The Phillies.  They aren’t HUGE favorites, but are favored with an over/under at 7.5.  I wasn’t completely sold on him at first, but The Phills have Carlos Ruiz and Tommy Joseph batting in the 4 and 5 hole (Because I just said that they will most likely go back-to-back jacks on Conley).  The Phillies are only slightly more scary than The Braves, but it is slight.

I Like Niese as well tonight at home against The Braves.  On a night with nothing jumping out at me, I’ll take the Vegas approach and ride the biggest favorite on the board.   Every once in a great while, Niese has a monster fantasy night, could be tonight……………….

I don’t like Smyly or Happ's spot tonight, either could get shelled and I am not a believer in Maeda.  He’s going to get blasted one of these nights

I like V mart and Miggy tonight against Berrios.  Salty is my sleeper catcher tonight.  This kid will be awesome someday, but he is far too wild at this point. 

I love Yelich against Eickhoff tonight who can’t get lefties out

I love the Pittsburgh bats against Perez at home tonight, especially Polanco and Joyce if you want to save some $$

Saunders and Donaldson OWN Smyly

The Yanks have a rookie going tonight IN Arizona.  Can Goldschmidt actually start performing for the love of Jesus?  If he can’t go 3-4 tonight with at least 1 Home Run, he is dead to me.  I like Segura too

Sneaky Stack of the night is Oakland against Derek Holland.  When Holland is bad, is 100% terrible!  If he’s off tonight, Oakland bats might catch fire.  I like Valencia and Semien

Because pitching is SO cheap tonight, you should have plenty of $$ to stack big bats.  Get McCutchen, Trout, and Polanco in there and cross your fingers.

 

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5/12/16

 

For the first night in a LONG time there are a TON of POSSIBLE aces on the mound tonight.  Lets start with the obvious: Kershaw.  Kershaw at home against a Mets team that strikes out at a fair clip is a great situation to be in.  Kershaw has amazing BVP in limited action against them, and Vegas has LAD as a huge favorite with a low Over/Under.  Problem is he is insanely expensive.  His price is so high I think he won’t be the highest owned pitcher tonight.  IF you can find enough hitting value, I think playing Kershaw is the way to go tonight, let everyone else get cute and fade him.  Double digit K’s, the Win, and 8 or 9 innings is quite possible if his stuff is on tonight.

Price or Dallas K?  My answer is BOTH……in separate lineups.  Keuchel’s price is WAY down, and if you ve watched him the past 2 seasons (NOT this season so far), you know that his stuff can be NASTY.  The Sox POUNDED the snot out of Oakland  last series, and Dallas has been not so hot so far, I think the vast majority will be scared to play him tonight.  Have some balls, that’s the only way to win a GPP.  Anchoring head to heads or 50/50’s with Keuchel or Price is a terrible idea, but in a GPP, it makes sense.  Houston strikes out so much, that Price has huge upside as well.  Either of these guys can win you huge $$, or ruin your night this evening. 

The only other guys I would consider tonight are Vince Velasquez against a PATHETIC Atlanta lineup (In a good pitchers park), Jimmy Nelson against a strike out prone Padres squad, or Greinke who looks like he is really coming back to form.  (GREAT SNEAKY GPP PLAY)

The Baltimore game could be an absolute SLUG FEST.  Miggy and V-mart will produce tonight, and the stack of the night will be Machado, Jones, Chris Davis, and Trumbo.  Don’t be surprised if 20% of the field has this exact 4 man combo.

 

I like Beltran and Morales in the NYY game

 

I would consider stacking the Phillies tonight against Blair.  One of these games their bats will start to heat up, why not tonight?

 

The Brewers could go HR crazy tonight against Shields.  I like Santana leading off, I’m pissed Villar is batting 9^th.   Scooter Gennett returns tonight, but I don’t like playing a guy his first game back in action.  Carter/ Braun/ Lucroy could all go long tonight.  I like Hill as a sneaky play on a night where I hate 2B more than any other.

 

I like Yasmany Tomas as a contrarian play against Cueto in Arizona tonight. 

The Cardinals stack will be highly used tonight.  It’s no secret that Weaver sucks, and the left handed St Louis bats could punish him.  This will be the ONE game I fade.   Gut feeling The Cardinals don’t score as much as everyone predicts.

 

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5/6

 

Crazy DFS night tonight, lots of options, lots of outcomes.

Watch the weather in San Diego, possible showers from 7:00-9:00 could ruin your night if you are all in on Noah S.  If it goes, and the rain moves, he is the top option tonight with probably the highest ceiling.  I’m fading Bumgarner, Colorado doesn’t strike out enough for me to let my entire lineup ride on him.  I think Greinke is a good play against Atlanta, and his recent struggles and other options tonight might keep his ownership % down.  I have to be all in on Chen against Philly.  Philly is batting .166 against Lefties this season and striking out 33% of the time!!  That is INSANE.  I have to go with him tonight, I have no choice, those numbers are just too good not to play him.  If he goes 8 with 1 ER, and 8 strikeouts I will punch myself in the testicles for not trusting my math and instincts if I don’t get him in there. 

Cole Hamels has not looked good this season and a Detroit stack could get the job done tonight.   Miggy has ridiculous numbers against him, and Kinsler and Upton are also in a good spot to produce.

I have to go with the Cinci stack again as well.  They have a cake matchup in a good hitters park and all have been swinging fairly well as of late.  Phillips in the cleanup spot at his current price is a nice play.

Ricky Nolasco gives up BOMBS.  I think Melky, Navarro, Abreu and even Garcia have a good chance of taking him long tonight.

Tajuan Walker has been mint this season, but historically pitches bad on the road and Minute Maid.  Altuve should produce again tonight, and I like Gattis.

Doug Fister is garbage, and I love the Seager/ Cano mini-stack 

The Pirates have had some success against Martinez, and I think Pittsburgh bats will be way under owned tonight.  I really like Polanco as a sneaky play

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5/5

 

TOUGH SLATE tonight.  No real chalk, no real aces.

Jacob Degrom is the clear #1 SP tonight against San Diego, big favorite with a very low Over/Under.  Even in this situation, I don’t see an Arrieta like performance tonight.

Adam Conley against Arizona is an interesting play tonight.  Hes coming off  a real nice outing, Diamonbacks are a much better home team than away, and tend to strike out at a decent clip against lefties.  I think Conley is a decent GPP play with a fair amount of upside tonight.

Wade Miley is coming off the best game of his career and pitches against Houston tonight.  The Astros strike out a ton against lefties, and because they scored 14 runs last night, I think people will shy away from Miley tonight keeping his ownership way down.  On a night with not many predicted strikeouts,  you got to get em where you can.   Degrom, Conley, and Miley are my favorite GPP options

I think the stack of the night is Donaldson, Edwin E, and Bautista at home against Holland.  These guys have the most upside and could win you a large GPP, but be warned, when this group gets cold, they have been ICE COLD this season.  None of these guys are “Safe”, but all have serious Home Run potential tonight.

Stanton, Realmuto,  and Ozuna are on a monster TARE, I’m riding it tonight against Lefty Robbie Ray.

EVERYONE is going to be all over the Cinci/Brewers game because 2 terrible pitchers face off.  IF this game ends 3-2, and you fade both teams, you will have a huge head start on 80% of the field tonight.  Weirdly enough both pitchers have really good BVP against each other……….just saying.

Erik Johnson sucks against lefties………BIG PAPI

2^nd base is tough tonight if you play Miley and take Altuve out of the equation.  I will roll the dice on Brett Lawrie tonight against Owens.

I would go all GPPs tonight, it’s a weird slate where nothing is really safe and I see nothing I can anchor Head to Heads or 50/50’s with

 

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5/3

 

I’m not in love with Arrieta tonight.  I just have a bad feeling he has a slightly off game.  I can’t justify paying top $$ for him with his situation tonight.  I am rolling with Harvey at a much discounted price.   I really love anyone going against Atlanta, but Harvey looked like he may have regained his dominant form last outing.  He is in a better spot than Jake, and the price difference is enough to sneak a Trout or Stanton in your lineup.  

 

My low ownership, make-or-break, GPP Pitcher tonight is going to be Nick Tropeano.  Milwaukee strikes out at 28% against righties so far and I don’t think Braun will play tonight.  If you want to stack bats, and pivot off Harvey and Arrieta,  I think Tropeano is the way to go.   Stacking against The Brewers and  Guerra is a brilliant play tonight, and I am 99% positive Tropeano will at least get the W tonight.

  A lot of people will be on Sonny Gray tonight , but I watched his last outing against Detroit, It wasn’t pretty. 

 Matt Moore is a decent play against LAD, and Wacha is in a good spot to succeed as well.

REAL BALLSY and sneaky play is Niese at home against Cubs.  We are talking 2% ownership with the possibility of 7 K’s tonight. 

A Rod is on a TARE and in a good spot tonight.  Stacking Orioles against a TERRIBLE Severino could be huge.

I like Josh Donaldson and Tulo tonight to finally get their shit together at home against Perez

I LOVE Realmuto leading off with Stanton cleaning up against Corbin

I Love the Longoria/ Pearce mini-stack against Kazmir

I have a weird feeling that the line isn’t big enough in the CWS and Boston game.  I think Wright finally gets shelled tonight ( Navarro and Austin Jackson)

I like Altuve tonight leading off against a rookie who has zero control.  3 walks and 3 SB’s is fine with me.

I hate taking hitters IN Kansas City, but Chris Young has been SHELLED so far this season.  Give me Harper and Ramos.

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