SOME QUICK NBA DFS ADVICE FOR TONIGHT:

Instead of going heavy with a two stud PG lineup, I'm going to save some money and go with the two stud SG lineup tonight.  I think a McCollum/DeRozan combo could net more return value than a Paul/Westbrook combo.  Its cheaper, and I think both SG's are in for 40 + fantasy points tonight. 

If Covington starts at SG tonight, and faces off with Booker, he is a must play.  Covington has also been getting the most consistent minutes on the team for Philly in the past week or so.  I will take ANYBODY who can see 30 plus minutes of action against The Suns.  Keep your fingers crossed that he stays on the court.

Damian Lillard is the best value top tier PG  tonight on www.draftdemons.com

Toronto could CRUSH Washington tonight, be careful

Whiteside has already been ruled out, everybody and their mothers are going to be on Tyson Chandler tonight, if you want to be ballsy, and go contrarian, ride The Brook Lopez train, and hope he doesn't put up a chump performance (Which he tends to every 5th game, be warned).  A 45-50 point night is not out of the question for Lopez.  Good GPP play

My favorite sneaky value play tonight is Jabari Parker.  Orlando has been AWFUL all season against the PF, and now with Gordon starting over Frye, it isn't going to get any better.  Z-Bo and Jeff Green tore them up last night.  Again, like Covington, I love the fact that Parker has been averaging a TON of minutes the past week.  If he plays for 35 tonight, I'm going to project him for the same 35 fantasy points.  That number could creep to 40 if he throws some blocks in there, Orlando gets blocked constantly, they have for the past 3 years, its their  thing. 

I'm fading Rondo and Cousins tonight.  I will probably be the ONLY person to say not to pay up for Cousins, but that's the way I see it.  They both played big minutes last night, and Cousins is so expensive, if he fouls out, or plays lazy (We ve seen it), he could ruin your night.  I love Boogie, just not tonight.

Sacremento's defense is bottom of the barrel on a regular night.  After playing an overtime lastnight, and being without Gay tonight, I think a Lillard, McCollum combo could be big.  An entire Portland stack is an intriguing play, I actually like Noah Vonleh as another sneaky play.

The Philly/ Phoenix game is going to have so much ownership across the industry, that fading the game completely is a ballsy, but possibly very lucrative move.  In no way is it smart, there is so much value on both sides, you have to get some pieces in your lineup.  HOWEVER, if by some strange force of nature, the power goes out, or it ends in a 71-74 crap fest, you could be WAY above the competition by fading it.  Not a prediction, just a what if scenario. 

Play on www.draftdemons.com, or we will start sending you chain letters on your Facebook page.  Really stupid ones. 

Lets go for 2 in a row................

In my 50/50s tonight I will be fading the Warriors.  They are a huge favorite, and I don't think they will need Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay to win this game.  They played last night, and it would be wise to use these 3 studs wisely in this situation.  I wouldn't be surprised to see their minutes in the mid 20's this evening which will probably limit their fantasy ceiling.  If you want any of these guys in your tourney plays, go for it, its a MINT matchup, but theirs too much risk to for me to pay big bucks for someone who wont get 30 PLUS minutes of action

Michael Carter Williams- $6,700
MCW has returned value his last 4 games in a row averaging 38.93 Fantasy points during that time frame.  Derrick Rose doesn't scare me on defense, and neither does Brooks if Rose sits (quite possible).  Butler, Mirotic, Taj/Portis, and even Gasol have played BETTER D lately (not great, but a step in the right direction).  The Bucks will have to score somehow, and I like MCW's chances finishing the night around 35 fantasy points.  He has really solid career numbers against The Bulls.

Jimmy Butler- $8000
Butler has been a MONSTER lately, he has averaged 47.8 points in the past 3 games.  He gets Kris Middleton tonight, and The Bucks are in the bottom rung in The NBA against opposing SG's.  If Rose sits, Butlers usage rate will go nuts.  Great matchup, he's on a tare, pencil him in for 40 and hope for 50.

Rudy Gay- $6800
Rondo looks like he won't play tonight.  Gay will shoot the ball a ton.  Chandler Parsons is no Defensive stud.  Gay could return big value tonight if his shot is on and can stay on the court for 32 PLUS minutes.  Greek Freak is the same price basically, but I don't trust The Bucks after playing last night.  They tend to do some weird things which can equal a huge nut kick to your fantasy night.  Gay is the SAFER of the two.

Paul Millsap- $8,100
I'm not going to overthink this one.  The Knicks have played Atlanta twice in the past 10 days, Millsap scored 47 and 49 points.  Cross your fingers, hope Atlanta doesn't smoke these guys, and be happy with 40 PLUS points.

Zaza P - $5,900
The Kings are beyond terrible on Defense.  Dallas SHOULD score at least 100 points tonight.  JJ, Wes, and Parsons are so streaky, I will take the consistency here.  Zaza has scored 35 Fantasy points the past 5 games (almost exactly, kind of weird).  The Kings stink, they played last night, Zaza is the safe play here, at 5900, 35 points is very nice in a 50/50.

Jose Calderon- $4,200
He's cheap, this is basically a punt play.  If he stays on the floor for over 25 mins, he gets 20-30 points, not spectacular by any stretch, but these are the plays you need to make the pieces fit.  This might be the only time this year I will suggest playing him (if he puts up 12 points tonight, he is dead to me.  This has happened before...............a lot)  He did score 32 points in limited action against Atlanta the day after Christmas

Bobby Portis- $4,500
I HATE putting non-starters in my 50/50's, but he is still underpriced.  I wish The Bulls would let him start at PF and see what he can do with 30 minutes of action.  The kid is the real deal, and fun to watch.  Milwaukee stinks against the PF, I'm hoping Portis gets 22-26 minutes tonight and racks up a double-double in that time.

Kent Bazemore- $5,800
Bazemore has seen minutes consistently in the high 20's- low 30's the past couple of weeks.  He is a better player than Thabo, and deserves the starting gig.  If he gets the minutes tonight, and Atlanta doesn't clobber these guys by 25, Bazemore should get somewhere around 30 points.

Good luck, watch the wire from 6:30-6:58 so you can completely change your lineup at the last minute because anything that can go wrong in DFS hoops, will.

A quick breakdown of my 50/50 lineup tonight.

First off, Westbrook will be owned in 80% of head to head and 50/50's tonight because Durant is already ruled out.  He should be owned this high, he will have a MONSTER night, but I'm going to actually skip him in my 50/50's.  He is just too expensive tonight, and chances are he will return value, but if he doesn't, kiss your entry fee goodbye.  The Kings are a MESS, Rondo and Cousins just don't care enough to put huge effort into ANYTHING.  Even with Durant out, there is a chance that OKC just torches these guys and holds a 20 plus point lead.  With Durant fragile right now, if the lead is huge (which is possible), we might see Waiters getting 25 minutes if they don't NEED Westbrook to win.  Its just too risky to base my entire night on him when there are other PG's in great situations.  I will play him in GPP's because there's a possibility he gets 75 points, but I will look elsewhere for my 50/50's.

Ricky Rubio $7100
Philly gives up points, not a secret.  I would LOVE Rubio tonight if Ish Smith was still a Pelican, but he's not.  I still think Rubio gets between 35-40 fantasy points tonight.  When Rubio is feeling it, he is an assist/ steal/ scoring machine.  I don't think he will be the #1 PG tonight, but I think he is safe enough to be my PG #1 in my 50/50's.

Andrew Wiggins $6400
Vegas says The Wolves score around 104 points tonight, Wiggins plays 38 mins a game lately, Cannan can't play defense, neither can any other SG that Philly will throw out there.  Wiggins is too cheap, he could be looking at 40 points tonight as well, I'm putting him in both my GPP's and 50/50's.

Gordo Hayward $7,500
Hayward has a GREAT matchup tonight against Ariza and The Rockets.  I REALLY think Favors sits again tonight, and Hayward's usage rate will be high.  Someone has to score for Utah, and I am not a believer in Hood or Trey Burke yet.  Hood has been hot, but he makes a better tourney play than a 50/50 tonight

Serge Ibaka- $6.300
Ibaka almost always plays 32 PLUS mins per game, he has a great matchup tonight, his usage rate will be up with Durant sidelined.  Again, he is too cheap to pass up at this price.  Ibaka is looking at a double-double this evening with a couple of steals and handful of blocks in there. 

Jeff Withey- $4,300
I'm kind of punting this position tonight.  Other than Brook Lopez, I am not in LOVE with any centers on the slate.  AGAIN, this is all based on Favors sitting tonight.  Fact is, Withey has averaged over 30 fantasy points the last 4 games, if he gets that again tonight, for $4300, its a STEAL.

Patty Mills- $3,700
The Chalk play tonight.  Parker out, The Bucks STINK against the PG, Mills might not get 40 tonight, but at this price, with this matchup, you kind of HAVE TO put him in there and hope he flirts with 30-35 points tonight.

L Aldridge- $6.700
Leonard is going to be HUGELY owned tonight, but he has burned me a couple of times in the past week.  He needs a 40 plus performance to return value tonight, and he is not currently on one of his hot streaks.  I'll take the value and hope Aldridge gets 35 tonight instead.  Whenever Parker or Duncan sits, Aldridge's fantasy production tends to drastically increase.

I. Thomas- $7,800
Celts will score tonight, the offense runs through Thomas.  Avery Bradley is out, Marcus Smart is not ready for 25 PLUS mins yet, Thomas has done really well against Brooklyn this season.  It also helps that he will face off against Shane Larkin with J Jack out for the season.  Thomas gets 40 tonight. (On a side note I think Evan Turner has a really nice game tonight as a great value play)

Check back and make sure Favors isn't playing tonight.  If he does, this lineup is null and void. 

NBA Value Plays 11/16/15

PG- Mario Chalmers

Chalmers isn’t a GREAT value play , because he’s not going to get you 40 points tonight.  However, he is pretty much minimum price across the industry, and I expect him to play 22-26 minutes tonight.  Both Memphis and OKC are playing back to back sets and the second unit might get a few extra minutes tonight.  OKC doesn’t do a good job against opposing PG’s, and I’m going to pencil Chalmers in for 25 points tonight.  In the past 3 games, Chalmers has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per minute.  If you want to get Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Harden in tonight, you need a few value plays like this to make it work. 

 

SG – Monta Ellis

George Hill and Stuckey are OUT tonight.  Monta Ellis will take over at point guard.  Last week, if it was the same situation, I wouldn’t have suggested Ellis because his shooting was TERRIBLE.  Now, he looks like he is regaining his old form and should see 35 minutes tonight against Rose.  Ellis might FILL UP the stat sheet tonight, hes going to have the opportunity to put up numbers, you just have to PRAY he finds his stroke early.  This is a true boom or bust play, but since he is priced middle of the road, and has the POTENTIAL to match Jimmy Butler’s numbers tonight, at 2/3’s the price, it might be worth it.

 

SF- Jeff Green

I know, this one isn’t very “Sneaky”.  Green has earned himself a place in the starting rotation.  He has a MONEY matchup tonight because OKC can not stop the SG’s or SF’s.  The last 2 games Green has score over 30 fantasy points each time.  He is still bottom of the barrel price, I don’t love the SF position tonight (Other than George), if you’re gonna punt, Green gives you price relief, with the potential of still getting you somewhere around 30 points.  He’s going to be highly owned, but its silly NOT to put him in there at his price.  Let the others get cute and fade him.

PF- Terrence Jones

Jones TORE IT UP Saturday with 26 pts, 1 stl, 1 assist, 3 blocks in 40 minutes.  His price is still mid-range and I love his matchup tonight.   Vegas say’s Houston scores a lot of points tonight, and I expect a decent chunk of that to come from Jones.  He will go up against Amir Johnson, or Sullinger, regardless, neither of them can play defense.  I would LOVE to see what Jones can do if he can get 35 minutes tonight.  After looking at everyone else’s predictions, apparently I’m the only one who thinks he has a monster game tonight, but I have to go with my numbers and predictions, I think Jones finishes in the Top 3 at PF when all is said and done.  I can’t talk myself out of it.

 

C – Ian Mahinmi

This guy is cheap, and has a GREAT matchup.  Indiana is thin tonight, and I think The Pacers will pick on Noah and Gasol’s inability to stop anyone.  The Bulls SUCK at rebounding, and opposing Centers have beat them up all season long(and last season too).   I think Mahinmi gets a double-double tonight if he can stay on the court for over 27 minutes.  At that price, that’s HUGE value.  Howard is the expensive guy to own, Zaza is the mid range, and Big Ian is the top “Value” play.

15 NBA DFS Predictions

        Meyers Leonard probably won’t tonight, get Moe Harkless in there CHEAP

            Marc Gasol probably won’t play tonight, go contrarian and play JyMychal Green, not Wright in big GPPs

            In the OKC game, Durant returns more points per dollar than Westbrook tonight

Pau Gasol is a value tonight

Rubio will score close to 40 Fantasy points tonight

Andrew Wiggins is a sneaky play, he hasn’t produced YET, but his MPG and Usage rate are sky high

Deron Williams out produces Conley and Rose tonight. 

Marvin Williams is STILL a value even though his price has risen slightly

Dirk scores 35 Fantasy Points tonight

Alec Burks is the best value at SG tonight

Gobert is hands down the best Center of the night

Nobody on Denver is worth starting tonight………….nobody

Lillard’s numbers are A LOT closer to Westbrooks numbers than price suggests.  Take the value

Z-Bo has a 15-15 Double-Double tonight.

Mudiay scores 30 Fantasy Points tonight

 

 

WEEK 9 QB’S

Tom Brady- Brady should be the top scoring QB this week.  This is NOT a great week for QB’s, and in situations like this, there are really only a few safe ways to go, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben.  On paper, this matchup is NOT as easy as The Miami game last week.  The Skins only give up 232 YPG and have given up 11 passing TD’s.  Washington is worse VS the run averaging 128 YPG but only 4 TD’s.  I think Brady will throw 3 or 4 TD’s, but will be held to around 300-320 yards.  I like pairing him up with Lewis this week after seeing what Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman has done to this squad in the past couple weeks.   The lack of rushing TD’s makes me like Gronk as well.  On paper, The Skins have been pretty good against opposing TE’s, but Its Gronk and Brady, at home.  Don’t over think it.  As always, Edelman is as solid as a WR you can possibly roll with.

 

Phillip Rivers-  Monday night football, Prime Time, at home, Rivers will light up the Bears D.  The Bears have given up 16 passing TD’s this year and only 2 rushing TD’s.  Melvin Gordon doesn’t even factor in the equation anymore.  The Chargers will score, and it will be through the air.  I LOVE Malcolm Floyd this week especially since Allen is done for the season.  Stevie Johnson is cheap and should get over 7 targets.  Watch the status of Gates, but I like Green regardless if Gates is a go.  My only concern is a BLOW OUT factor (The Pats game could be the same)  If The Chargers are up by 27 points in the 3^rd quarter, they might just start juicing the clock and keeping the ball on the ground.  If they can keep it close, Rivers COULD out-produce Brady this week.    The Rivers/ Floyd/ Green stack is A LOT cheaper than Brady/Gronk/ Edelman !!!

 

Dave Carr-  You gotta throw ONE lottery ticket in there, why not Carr?  Carr had a very productive game against SD two weeks ago and DESTROYED The Jets throwing for 333 Yards and 4 TD’s with no picks (If you say You saw that one coming, you are a “Liar”)  Pittsburgh is in the bottom 3^rd for pass defense, and can be scored on.  I don’t trust Lat Murray, so I think Carr is going to throw in this game.  I also expect Pittsburgh to score, so we are talking a possible shoot out or throwing 40 times because they are playing from behind.  Carr/ Crabtree/ Cooper is my SNEAKY STACK of Week 9.  

NBA VALUE PLAYS 11/3

I feel like everyone gets together and tells each other in the industry their “Value Plays” for that night and the same 5 people give you the same 3 or 4 players.  Well, I will skip Morris, and Cauley-Stein and Hibbert, I will try to give you some SNEAKIER plays that hopefully the others might miss.

 

My top Value Play tonight is going to be Evan Fournier.  He is really cheap, and the beauty is he has averaged 35 MPG the past 3 games.  He will face a BEAT UP Pelicans squad and should see 30 minutes of action tonight.  Anytime you can find a player who is more than half the price of the big $$ guys, who plays 30 minutes, It’s a value.  Fournier has also averaged 30 fantasy points the last two games, if  you want to put Drummond and The Brow in your lineup tonight (you should), put Fournier in your Guard spot of flex.  If he can get you close to 30 points at his current price, you are golden. 

I also like Matt Barnes tonight. Memphis got SMOKED last night, and they traveled today to play against a Kings team that sucks on defense.  Barnes is pretty hit or miss, and he will never get you 40 points, but if he can see 22 minutes of action tonight, and get you 20-25 fantasy points, he is an extreme value.

Jameer Nelson will be on the floor for 23-27 minutes against a Lakers squad who has been terrible against opposing PG’s for the past 3 years.  Nelson is a veteran who can get steals, points, assists and even rebounds.  PG isn’t wonderful tonight anyway, save at PG and spend like crazy on your bigs tonight.  I think Nelson nets 30 fantasy points tonight.