Tampa Bay at Houston

40 Points  Houston -3.5

Tampa Bay Defense:

Passing 202 YPG, 5 Td’s

Rushing 114 YPG, 3 Td’s

Houston Defense:

Passing 205 YPG, 5 Td’s

Rushing 134 YPG, 1 Td

I’m going to go ahead and recommend nobody from either team.  This has the makings of a Sunday Snoozefest.  On the Houston side, Hopkins is banged up, Polk and Blue are splitting carries and doing NOTHING with their carries.  Tampa Defense looked AWFUL week 1 against The Titans, but looked pretty good against a beat up Drew Brees in New Orleans. 

On the Bucs side of things, I’m just not a believer in this offense.  Doug Martin is getting the majority of the work in the backfield, but just producing pedestrian numbers.  Vincent Jackson might get 5 for 80.  Mike Evans got targeted 3 times last week and had zero receptions.  There will be some turnovers in this game, either Defense is a decent play, but I want nothing to do with either offense to be honest.  Tampa Bay wins the game 20-13. 

San Diego at Vikings

45 points Vikings -1

Chargers Defense:

Passing 223 YPG, 5 TD

Rushing 122 YPG, 1 TD

This game is SCREAMING Adrian Petersen to me.  It’s time to pay up for him.  He looked solid last week netting 190 total yards of offense.  He would have had a bigger game if he had not fumbled at the goal line as well.  AP has faced The Chargers twice in his career and has averaged 197 YPG.  That is insanity.  Petersen could get 30 carries on Sunday, and since Abdulah averaged 7.1 ypc in week 1, and Gio Bernard averaged 6.2 ypc last week, I have no choice but to make AP my #1 RB of Week 3.  I also like Kyle Rudolph who has been getting a good amount of targets thus far this season as well.  The Chargers gave up big points to Ebron in Week 1, and Eifert last week had a productive fantasy day.  Rudolph gets 90 with a TD, and AP gets over 170 yards (combined) and 2 TDs.

Vikings Defense:

Passing 225 YPG, 2 TD’s

Rushing 134 YPG, 2 TD’s

I can’t gauge how good or bad this Vikings defense is yet.  They made Carlos Hyde look like OJ Simpson in week 1, but did a great job containing The Detroit running game last week.  I like Melvin Gordon, he could have a nice game, I just don’t LOVE him yet.  I can understand playing him this week, I just think there is more appealing options.  Rivers traditionally does not play well indoors, and throws a ton of interceptions inside.  Ladarius Green is questionable with a concussion, and there are far too many better WR options this week to consider Keenan Allen.  Vikings Defense/Special Teams have been known to go FANTASY MENTAL a few teams each year, perhaps it’s this Sunday……………

Steelers at Rams

48 Points Steelers -1

St Louis Defense

Passing: 205 YPG and 2 TD’s

Rushing: 153 YPG and 2 TD’s

Where is this Powerhouse Rams Defense??  They have looked like Swiss Cheese the first two weeks.  Their secondary has been good against the WR’s, but they have been awful against Running Backs, and Tight Ends.  Vegas says The Steelers will score 3 or more TD’s, and I have to assume that the bulk of this will come on the ground, with a mix of TE and WR.  Lev Bell is back in action this week, but he could be rusty and splitting carries with Dangelo Williams.  This might be the week I’m not all over Antonio Brown, it looks like they don’t need to target him 15 times to win this game.  PLUS, in 17 games on turf Antonio Brown only has 3 TD’s.  Turf ain’t Brown’s thing.  Oddly enough, Wheaton traditionally has had better games on turf compared to grass.  Big Ben plays fine on turf, and he should have an ok game, but not a big fantasy numbers game.  I think the offensive production in this game will be spread out.  Steelers may score 4 TD’s, but it could be split between Bell, Wheaton, Williams, Brown, and Miller.  If you’re looking for a good value play, I think Wheaton might be just sneaky enough to get you 80 yards, 5 catches and a TD.  Because of everybody else’s price tag, I’m going to look elsewhere. 

Pittsburgh is weak in their secondary, their run Defense looks good, although we really only got to see it last week because The pats didn’t run in week 1.  The Steelers stuffed Carlos Hyde pretty good last week and the split carry situation between Mason and Gurley makes me want to take a pass on it.  So who is the best WR option in St Louis?  I have no idea, at this point, neither do they.  Jarred Cook, however has been getting the most targets each week, and looks like their most reliable weapon.  Steelers gave up big numbers to Gronk in week 1, and decent numbers to Vern Davis last week.  I think Cook is a nice Tight End play this week, and should see plenty of targets.  Projection: 8 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD

Saints at Carolina

45 Pts  Carolina -3

Saints D

Rushing:  130 YPG and 2 TD’s

Passing:   250 YPG and 4 TD’s

Saints’ Defense is NOT good.  They are giving up 380 YPG, 8^th worst in NFL.  Carolina will score on these guys.  I have zero faith in a healthy Jon Stewart, this week he is banged up, I am staying away from the running aspect of this game.

I think Cam Newton is the top play of this game.  It’s hard to pin point what receiver option might be best for DFS purposes because it has been so sporadic.  Oddly enough, Ted Ginn JR has been their most reliable weapon through 2 games, I recommended him last week, I’ll do it again.  He is always capable of getting that 40 yard bomb for a TD because of his speed.  Greg Olsen can always have a good game, but I just need some more consistency from him before I’m ready to pay up for him.  There will be scoring, and Cam Newton will be part of it, Newton is a great play this weekend.  Projection:  215 yards passing, 2 TDs, 84 yards rushing, 2 Td’s. 

I’ll save you the suspense.  Panthers Defense are TOP 5 in NFL.  The Saints Offense doesn’t play as well outside a dome, and Drew Brees is a HUGE question mark this week.  He is beat up, questionable to play, and even if he does, he won’t be at 100%, and he has a tough matchup.  That entire offense revolves around Brees, I will pass on every New Orleans offensive player this week.  It’s just too risky, and the ceiling on any of these guys is not high enough to justify it. 

 

Bengals at Baltimore

44 pts   Ravens -1.5

Bengals Defense:

97.0 yards per game rushing

203 yards Passing but 4 td’s

Don’t like the Ravens run game, Las Vegas says they score 3 td’s, my guess is short passes, probably to Crockett Gillmore.  Last week, Gillmore had  5 receptions  for 88 yards and 2 td’s vs Oakland.  He was targeted in week 1 vs Denver.  The TE looks like where The Bengals are most Vulnerable.  Crockett Gillmore should have a productive day.  Projection: 7 for 78 and 1 TD

Baltimore Defense:

250 yards per game passing plus 3 TDs

83 yards per game rushing / 1 TD

The Ravens Run Defense is good.  That, paired with the fact that it’s impossible to predict the workload for Jeremy Hill or Gio Bernard this week, is enough to make me skip the entire situation.  Gun to my head, I’ll play Gio, but that’s because he is cheaper than Hill. 

Ravens Secondary looked TERRIBLE against Oakland last week.  Michael Crabtree had 9 catches for 111 yards and 1 TD, and Amari Cooper had 7 catches for 109 yards and 1 TD.  I think this will be AJ Greens first BIG game of 2015.  The Bengals will look at what Oakland did last week and attack with their WR’s.  AJ Green might be an elite WR this week.  Projection: 10 Receptions, 143 yards, 1 TD

A BREAKDOWN OF TONIGHTS MLB Starting Pitching

The Quick and Dirty Version

Madison Bumgarner- SF       I can’t do it.  Vegas has him as the biggest favorite, and he will get the win, but I don’t LOVE his numbers enough to justify him being the most expensive option tonight.  111k’s in 133 innings lifetime against Arizona.  Good numbers for sure, but it has to be at least a K per inning for me to pay top dollar.  Last time against Arizona, 5.0 innings, 3 k’s, 1 ER.  The D-Backs offense has been slumping lately, but I get nervous facing Pollock and Goldschmidt regardless, I’ll look elsewhere

Zack Greinke- LAD                 Nah.   Greinke is good at home, The Pirates Offense has been piss poor lately, but Greinke has a career 5.37 ERA vs The Pirates.  That, along with the fact that The Pirates don’t strike out too much against right handed pitching , is enough for me to pass on Zack

Chris Sale- CWS                     Yeah, why not.   Sale hasn’t been sharp in his last couple of starts, and that’s enough to keep his ownership down tonight.  When Sale is ON, he is arguably THE BEST strikeout pitcher in MLB.  Cleveland strikes out a lot against Lefties, and this is going to be a Brilliant play or a complete disaster.  He is a RISKY play tonight, but his upside is so huge, I think he’s worth the gamble.  If he is on, he will be the highest producing Pitcher in DFS tonight, “IF”.

Jose Fernandez- MIA                         I’ll Pass.   Fernandez is NASTY.  Washington strikeout a lot, but there is no way they can let him pitch more than 6 innings tonight, if they do, everyone in the organization should be fired.  I need my SP’s to be able to throw 8 innings minimum to be considered for a GPP play.  He will produce, but the pitch count will scare me too much

Max Scherzer-WAS                PROBABLY   He just pitched a great game against The Marlins last week in Miami.  Miami doesn’t strikeout at a crazy pace, but their offense doesn’t scare me either.  I would say he is SAFER than Sale, but has a lower ceiling with the strikeout potential tonight.  If you’re playing 50/50’s or head to heads, Scherzer is probably the guy to anchor your team

M. Tanaka- NYY                     YES.  Tanaka has looked like a BEAST his last two starts, He is undervalued tonight, I can’t see the Mets beating on him tonight.  The Mets strikeout a lot against Righties, their offense is cooling off, 8 innings, 1 ER, and 8 K’s is quite possible for him tonight.  Good GPP play for the price.

 

Verlander/Cueto                   HEADACHE.  The weather looks tricky, thunderstorms in the middle of the game, these guys have both been on a rollercoaster of highs and lows this season, both look terrible recently.  Cueto is so cheap compared to where he has been all season, but I just can’t get burned by him or mother nature tonight with all the other options.  Let someone else deal with it.  I wouldn’t be FLOORED if Cueto straightned it out and threw a gem, but I can’t bet on that.

Drew Smyly -TB                     I HAVE TO.   The name is scary still.  I’m waiting for the floor to fall out, but it hasn’t yet.  If you’re a numbers player, you HAVE to put Smyly in your squad tonight.  Last game, he threw was against Boston: 6 innings, 11 K’s, 0 ER.  He plays Baltimore tonight at home, last game versus Baltimore: 7 innings, 10 K’s 0 ER.  How about Career vs Baltimore: 34 innings, 39 K’s, 0.79 ERA, 0.74 WHIP.  I have tried to talk myself out of how much I LOVE Smyly tonight, but I can’t.  Anything can happen in MLB, nothing is certain, but I have to look at those numbers, plus The Orioles home/away splits and K rate, and I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY DREW SMYLY TONIGHT

Everyone else                         NO.  Fiers, just got rocked.  Matz is too young and inexperienced.  Porcello is Porcello and I would have to be on bath salts to pay money for him to be on my team.   Ian Kennedy is pitching in Colorado.  Paxton will get rocked tonight.  Heaney is playing Minnesotta at home, I always avoid that situation due to the numerous times I have gotten burned this year.  Gallardo is 76 years old and Seattle’s Home Run potential scares me. 

 

Love Always,

The Draft Demon 

 

 

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