Top NBA Plays                                                      3/29/15

 

 

Reggie Jackson- PG- Detroit - $16,600

It’s tough calling a guy who costs $16,600 a VALUE PLAY, but other than Westbrook, Reggie Jackson is the hottest player in the NBA.   Since Greg Monroe has been out, Jackson has AVERAGED 22 pts, 12 assists (RIDICULOUS), and 6.5 rebounds.  Those are insane stats, and when someone is this hot, you have to ride it out.  I like (don’t love) his matchup tonight against Miami, and like I said, you have to go with the hot hand, a triple-double might be possible tonight for the kid who looks like he may have finally figured it out

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – SG- Detroit -$9,900

Speaking of really stepping it up, The Pope has been on fire the past 5 or 6 games as well.  KCP was really a complete non-factor the first half of the season, his usage rate was nothing, and with Brandon Jennings, Monroe, and Drummund doing most of the heavy lifting, KCP was left in the shadows.  I have to applaud Detroit for really figuring out how to utilize their offense with so many guys going down, its impressive.  Pope has been shooting the ball much better (and more frequently) and has some confidence in his outside shots.  I really don’t love any other SG tonight’s, so I’m rolling with him

Richard Jefferson- SF- Dallas- $5,900

Monta Ellis won’t play tonight due to injury, Jefferson will fill his shoes against The Pacers tonight.  Jefferson isn’t going to blow anyone away with his offense, but tonight is really tough to find value.  If Jefferson can play 25 minutes which he should), he could put up a 14 pts, 4 assists, 5 rebound stat line, and for $5,900, that’s pretty good.   Ellis is the backbone of The Mavs’ offense, and with him out, those points have to come from somewhere else.  Since Rondo is a complete bust, Dirk is 86 years old, and Tyson Chandler hasn’t had a good game since January, I expect Jefferson to produce enough to make him worth a roster spot tonight

 

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TOP NBA VALUE PLAYS                                                    3/27/15

 

Jordan Clarkson-PG- LAKERS -  $9.600

The past 2 games Clarkson has been on fire.  He has averaged 37 minutes, 25 pts, 1.5 steals, 2 blocks, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds.  This is the line for a $16,000 player, not $9,600.  Historically his matchup isn’t terrific tonight against Derozan and The Raptors, but the past few games with Lowry out, Derozan’s offense has increased and defense has decreased.  Caldwell Pope made him look amateur a few games ago.  Lowry is out tonight, and if Clarkson can see 35 minutes of action, he should easily return $9,600 of value

Dennis Schroder – PG – Hawks - $9,300

Jeff “the Fantasy Nightmare” Teague is out tonight with a sore ankle.  Even if he played it would probably be only 28 minutes regardless.  Dennis Schroder will start at PG tonight and face Miami and Dragic.  Schroder has played them this season, and played well.  Actually, 90% of the time that Schroeder starts and plays over 30 minutes he produces really well.  I see no issues tonight with him putting up a 30 PLUS fantasy points night.  (On a side note, don’t EVER start ANY Atlanta Hawks player in DFS.   Occasionally, they will announce they are sitting half their starters 5 minutes before tip off.  They are a good NBA team, but a terrible Fantasy squad.  Milsap is very solid, but never gets you that 50 point game that you are hoping for, and Carroll, Krover and Horford are far to unpredictable)

Ryan Kelly- PF- Lakers- $4,800

Kelly has been a really solid performer the past few games.  He averages over 30 mins, almost a double-double, with some assists, steals and blocks sprinkled in.  Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill will NOT play tonight, leaving LA thin at PF and Center.  It SEEMS like LA has made up their mind on their new Starting 5.  Lin, Clarkson, and Kelly have been getting the most minutes and I don’t see that changing tonight.  I actually think putting all 3 in your lineup might work nicely because The raptors do not scare me on defense.  I think Kelly hits his double-double tonight and for $4,800, that might be the best return for your money on the board

 

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Wednesday Top NBA VALUE PLAYS                                                  3/25/15

 

Zach Lavine- PG- T-wolves-   $7,200

It looks like Rubio won’t play tonight, leaving Zach attack to fill his shoes.  In the past 3 games LaVine has averaged 38 mins, 19.5 pts, 4 assists, and 6 rebounds.  The Wolves play a terrible Lakers squad tonight who are playing for nothing but lottery balls AND they played late last night.  The Wolves are BEAT UP, and only 9 or 10 guys will probably dress tonight.  Lavine will  be shooting a lot, and his usage % should be high, other than his turnovers (which may be high as well tonight) I think you could do a lot worse for $7,200 than Lavine

Lorenzo Brown – PG - T –wolves-  $4,500

Kevin Martin looks like he will sit tonight as well, and Lorenzo Brown will start at SG.  Again, like Lavine, The Lakers are not good against guards, and now playing back-to-back sets.  Monday night, Brown had a really solid game against a good defensive Utah squad.  HE played 45 minutes, 10 pts, 2 steals, 6 assists, and 7 rebounds.  Try finding that elsewhere for $4,500.  If Martin sits, you HAVE TO get Brown in one of your flex spots, he’s too cheap not to take the chance.

Tyler Zeller –C – Celtics  $9,700

Celtics play Miami tonight.  Miami played last night.  Last night the center going against Miami (Zaza) put up 14 pts, 5 steals, 1 block, 7 assists, and 11 rebounds.  THAT IS A MONSTER LINE.  Zaza’s performance had a lot to do with Hassan Whiteside leaving the game early due to a wrist injury, but it looks like Whiteside is out for tonight as well (Check back at 6:30 !!!!!!!)  I think the Celts attack with their bigs tonight, like The Bucks did last night.  So, it’s the age old question: Zeller or Olynk??  Zeller is starting and has been averaging more mins per game than Olynk.  Also, if you ve seen Kelly Olynk shoot the basketball the past few weeks, you would realize that you don’t want him ANYWHERE near your fantasy squad. 

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NBA ADVICE                                                      3-18-15

 

Interesting night on the NBA front this evening.  There are some great VALUE PICKS and some great top tier players to pick from and a bunch of garbage in the middle.  So, what to do?  Your best chance at winning tonight is the perfect combo of Stars and Scrubs.  I’m going to pay for some cheap-o’s, so that I can load up with the Big Dogs and hope that everything goes as planned.  Usually this approach isn’t wise, but with no real value in the middle price range, you gotta go against tradition, and try something new. 

The 4 Big names I’m paying up for tonight are Curry, Westbrook, Lowry, and Wall.  Westbrook has by far the most “Up-side” and with Klay Thompson out, I think Curry is the “Safest”.  If you can somehow squeeze them both in (Utilizing our wonderful 4 Flex spots), you should go for it, cross your fingers, and hope for the best.   A Curry/ Wall or Curry/Lowry combo works nice so that you can fit Draymond Green in as well.  When Green goes off, he can produce with the very elite in the Fantasy world, I like his matchup, and tonight’s scenario. 

Getting these Big $$ players in, will take some budgeting.  There are 4 players you need to have in your lineup to make it all work:

Isaiah Canaan for $8,000.  He gets Detroit tonight, who stink against PG’s and Reggie Jackson has got to be tired after dishing out 20 assists last night.  Detroit doesn’t play well on back-to-back sets, and Philly is well rested.  If Canaan can stay on the court for 25 plus minutes I fully expect him to finish with 25 fantasy points. 

Justin Holiday for $4,500.  NO BRAINER, everybody in DFS will own him tonight.  He starts in Klay Thompsons spot at SG tonight.  He is really productive when given minutes, has a good matchup, and is as cheap as possible.  Don’t be the “Cute” guy who goes against the grain to gain some sort of statistical advantage because his ownership will be so high.  That works on an expensive player, not a minimum salary guy.

Justin Hamilton $5,700  This kid is no joke.  The past 3 or 4 games he has raised more eyebrows than any other young player in the NBA.  He is a big kid who scores and rebounds like a veteran.  Pek and Rubio won’t play tonight, so Dieng and Hamilton are going to be in charge of scoring.  I love having the big’s going against Toronto on any night, and when you can get them this cheaply, you have to go with it.

Solomon Hill- $8,500   Hill is streaky, but when he has one good game (Like he did Monday night against Toronto), he usually backs it up with a second good game, after that, he will, without a doubt, have one of the worst statistical games of the season, and he WILL be in your lineup that night.  This is going to be his second good game in a row.  He plays Chicago well, he’s coming off a good game, he should see 25 minutes of action, Chicago (Mike Dunleavy) sucks against the SF, he’s inexpensive,………………….Mike Dunleavy……………..

 

 

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The Demon’s NBA Picks 3/13/15

Elfrid Payton – PG –Orlando - $10.700

Payton is a true hit or miss PG.  When he produces, he is the guy that you kick yourself in the ass for not putting him in your lineup with a “Damn it !!  I knew it!!”.  When he underperforms he is usually IN your lineup with a “Damn it !!  I knew it  !!”.  HE plays The Celtics and Marcus Smart tonight.  I like Smart as a young NBA talent, but he is pretty easy to score and move on, and I think Payton should have no problem earing his $10,700 paycheck.  Last week when they faced off Elf put up a 19 points, 7 assists, 10 reb, 1 steal performance. 

 

Dwayne Wade – SG – Miami -$15,800

D Wade has really turned it on the past 2 weeks.  He is finding his old form and is a “Solid” option tonight.  Surprisingly, The Shooting Guard position is the hardest spot to fill tonight (Especially now that Klay Thompson has been ruled out).  In March, Wade has averaged 26.2 pts, 2 steals, 6 assists, 4 rebs, and 33 minutes per game.   Miami is beat up and under-talented right now, so its Wade’s responsibility to score the majority of The Heat’s points.  Miami plays Toronto tonight which isn’t a wonderful matchup, but I expect Wade to have another SOLID performance.

 

Rudy Gay – SF – Sac - $16,400

Gay gets Philly tonight.  Philly stinks defensively at almost every aspect of the game, but they are BOTTOM of the league when it comes to giving up, Steals, Assists, and Rebounds.  Rudy Gay is really good at all of these (Especially for a SF).  The last 4 games Rudy Gay has been ON FIRE !  He is averaging an astounding 40 mins per game and has been STUFFING the stat sheet with pts, assists, reb, steals, and 3pts.  I think everyone should go Gay tonight.  If you’re gonna go Gay, tonights the night to give it a shot

 

Brandon Bass – PF – Boston - $9,700

I always try to find the weak spot in a defense, and all season long that weak spot has been the PF on The Magic.  Frye, O’quinn, and even Vu are all terrible blocks of swiss cheese.  Bass is the PF for The Celts, he earned the job by hard work and great hustle.  Again, these two played just last week, and Bass had a “Friggin’ Monsta Game!!!”  19 points, 17 rebounds, and 5 assists, put him in your lineup, and pray for a repeat performance.

 

DeAndre Jordan – C- LAC -$17,300

Jordan might be the most consistent player in the NBA.  You know almost exactly what you’re gonna get from him before the game starts.  There are currently only 2 threats on LAC: Jordan and Chris Paul.  Chris Paul is a beast, he keeps on playing through these injuries, but it will eventually catch up to him.  If his ankle is bothering him tonight, I see him dishing it down low to Jordan where he will get an easy 2 or get fouled (which every player in the NBA is currently doing to DeAndre)  Pencil him in for 15-15-3 and hope he takes it to 20-20-5

 

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Tonight’s Top NBA Plays – 3/11/15

 

PG- Ray Mccallum - $6,900 – SAC

Mccallum is underpriced.  At this point, he should be flirting with 9.5 to 10K range.  Since stepping in full time for injured Darren Collision, Little Ray has been fairly “Solid”.  He’s not going to get you a triple-double, but he has been filling up the stat sheet more than his current price would indicate.  HE gets, points, assists, rebounds, and steals, if you’re looking to go cheap tonight at PG, Mccallum might be the guy

 

SG- Austin Rivers- $6,700 – LAC

Austin has put together two very good fantasy games in limited minutes.  He is seeing about 20-25 mpg with Jamal Crawford sidelined, and with Chris Paul banged up, those minutes might jump to 30 if CP3 comes up lame at some point tonight.  It’s no guarantee, but if Rivers can see 25 to 30 minutes of action, I could see a 20 pts, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steal performance.  Again, like, Mccallum, he is a really cheap option and does not have to put up gigantic numbers to make him a great value.

 

SF- PJ Tucker- $10,400 – Phoenix

The thing I like about Tucker tonight is that he will slide into the SG slot with B Knight out of commission.  Tucker plays Minnesota tonight, and Kevin Martin doesn’t believe in playing Defense.  Tucker is STREAKY, when he’s on, his great, when he’s cold , he sucks, making him a risky play.  I don’t LOVE his price, but he has a good matchup, and should see plenty of minutes, and might put up 25 points or so tonight.

 

PF- Serge Ibaka- $14,500 – OKC

I love Ibaka, the guy is a monster, and when he gets zoned in, he can be a scoring, blocking and rebounding machine.  Serge faces Spencer Hawes and The Clippers tonight.  Hawes is too uncoordinated and goofy to stop Mr. Ibaka, and with Durant out, I see The Westbrook And Ibaka Show tonight.  Serge’s line tonight: 15 points, 15 rebounds, 5 Blocks, 4 assists.  I like Serge tonight more than: Gasol, Aldridge, and Monroe.

 

C- Brook Lopez $12.500 – Brooklyn

I don’t love playing guys usually on back-to back nights, HOWEVER, I like Lopez for a few reasons tonight.  First, he only played 25 minutes last night, so if fatigue is an issue, he should play baseball.  Second, he plays Miami tonight and Hassan Whiteside is suspended for tonight’s game, therefore he will guard Udonis Haslem who gets winded after the first 6 minutes of the first quarter. Third, I don’t like any other Centers tonight, just not feeling any of the other matchups.  When playing Lopez, the Mason Plumlee risk is always involved, but even if he plays only 25 minutes again, he should double-double fairly easily 

 

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Tonight’s Top NBA Picks    3/4/15

 

Chris Paul- $20,200  PG CLIPPERS

Chris Paul has been TAREING IT UP lately.  He gets Portland tonight, and has averaged 22.5 pts, 1.5 steals, 10.5 assists, 5 Rebounds against The Blazers this season.   Those numbers were with Blake Griffin, with Griffin out, Paul’s numbers , usage rate, and production goes up.  Matt Barnes might sit tonight as well, that basically means all of The Clippers pts tonight have to come from Paul and Deandre Jordan (Portland’s pretty good against the SG, so I’m not loving Reddick or Crawford tonight) If I’m paying up for a top Guard tonight, it’s gonna be CP3

Rodney Stuckey- $10,400 SG PACERS

After tricking myself over and over again this season, I have a new rule: START WHATEVER SHOOTING GUARD IS PLAYING THE KNICKS EVERY NIGHT.  I talk myself out of it, EVERY NIGHT, but I’m running with it tonight.  Stuckey has been hot, and averaging 30 mins a game.  I think CJ Miles won’t suit up tonight (check at 6:30), and if he doesn’t, Stuckey should see over 30 minutes even if it’s a massacre. 

 

Andrew Wiggins- $12,300 SF  T- WOLVES

Schwiggy is one of my favorite NBA and fantasy players in the league.  He ALWAYS (Knock on Wood) plays 35 minutes a game, and catch fire like Stockton in a NBA JAM Session.  The Wolves have played Denver 3 times this year already, and Wiggins has DESTROYED them each time.  I love this game and The Minne players tonight to put up great numbers (Rubio, and Dieng as well).  Wiggins VS Denver this season: AVG 25 pts, 1.5 Blocks, 4 assists, 1 steal, 7 Rebounds.  LOVE IT

Ken Faried- $11,100 PF Denver

The Manimal is looking strong suddenly.  The new coach is gonna let him run wild and see what he can do.  When Faried is properly motivated and feeling it, he can go nuts.  I smell it, I think it’s coming.  He can win you tournaments, or knock you out with a 6 point performance.  I think it’s time to release the beast and let him go mental tonight.  It helps that he has averaged a double-double this season against Minnesota .

Hassan Whiteside- $14,500 C Miami

All or nothing.  If he can stay out of foul trouble he puts up monster stats.  I don’t love any of the other Centers tonight, I can find value at every other position, but Center is tough.  I like any and all players against The Lakers.  Stat of the night:  Whiteside faced The Lakers earlier this season and had 15 pts- 9 Rebounds- and 5 blocks………………….in 21 minutes !!!!  Play 33 minutes at that rate and see his line.

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Tonight’s Top NBA Picks                 3-2-15

JJ Barea- $7,100 – PG Dallas  (VALUE PLAY)

Dallas plays New Orleans tonight.  Dallas is beat up, Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler have already been ruled out with injuries.  Dallas will go with a small lineup, and Barea will slide over to the SG role tonight, and face up against Eric Gordon.  Gordon isn’t a fantastic defender AND he played 32 minutes last night, he may be slightly tired.   You can pay for 28 minutes of Barea’s production for a 14 minute price.  When JJ plays 25 PLUS minutes he performs well, he had a really nice stretch a few weeks back when he started for an injured Rajon Rondo.  Barea won’t score you 40 points tonight, but at $7,100, he doesn’t need to.  (If you are feeling ballsy, Rondo might be a nice sneaky pick tonight as well…………..)

Deron Williams- $11,900- PG- Brooklyn

Williams has played BRILLIANT since regaining the starting PG position from Jarrett Jack.  Williams gets Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors tonight.  Curry’s defense takes a decline the second night of back-to-back sets, and The Warriors played last night.  Over his career, Williams has averaged 17 PTS, 10 ASSISTS, 1 Steal, and 3 Reb per game against GSW.  I said it last week, I’m gonna say it again, pay the 11K pricetag and get 16K worth of production on Deron tonight.

Loul Deng- $11,500- SF- Miami- $11,500- MIAMI

Deng will either play SF or PF tonight, I’m not exactly sure.  Regardless, he either gets PJ Tucker, or Markieff Morris, both complete bums on defense.  The thing I really like about Loul is his Minutes Per Game recently, he is averaging over 35 minutes per game since the All Star break.  If you haven’t watched a Phoenix Suns game recently, it’s pretty disgusting, they can’t stop ANYBODY, and looks like they don’t really want to.  There are too many question marks on Miami right now to load up your lineup with Heat players, so I will take the guy who has been playing the most minutes.  Deng is my “Safest” pick of the night, he might not get you 50, but he will get you 30.

Spencer Hawes- $7,300- PF- LA Clippers (VALUE PLAY)

Hawes’ minutes have fluctuated since taking over for Blake Griffin last month, making him a risky play.  He could play 18 minutes, or he could play 32 minutes.  I do like his matchup tonight against The T-Wolves.  It looks like Pekovic won’t play, and Dieng will start at Center.  That means Hawes gets a 53 year old Kevin Garnett or some other secondary defender all night tonight.  I would love to see what Hawes could do with 35 minutes against a bad D like The Wolves.  You can’t count on a big stat sheet for Hawes tonight, however, that possibility is there, and at $7,300, its worth a shot. 

Alexis Ajinca - $7,500- C- New Orleans (VALUE PLAY)

Ajinca is in a similar situation to Spencer Hawes tonight, their stats at the end of the night might be pretty close.  Ajinca won’t start (although he should), but will see minutes in the mid 20’s.  The thing I really like about Ajinca tonight is I don’t think anybody is going to be able to rebound against him.  Dallas is starting Rondo, Barea, Ellis, Richard Jefferson, and Dirk Nowitzki tonight, none of these guys stands a chance against Ajinca or Asik.  I don’t like Aski as much because his minutes rarely go above 25, and he played last night.  If New Orleans had any balls, they would start Ajinca, and have Asik play 18-20 minutes with the second unit, but they won’t.  I like Ajinca tonight for a double-double with 10 points and 15 rebounds.