NBA Value Plays 11/16/15

PG- Mario Chalmers

Chalmers isn’t a GREAT value play , because he’s not going to get you 40 points tonight.  However, he is pretty much minimum price across the industry, and I expect him to play 22-26 minutes tonight.  Both Memphis and OKC are playing back to back sets and the second unit might get a few extra minutes tonight.  OKC doesn’t do a good job against opposing PG’s, and I’m going to pencil Chalmers in for 25 points tonight.  In the past 3 games, Chalmers has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per minute.  If you want to get Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Harden in tonight, you need a few value plays like this to make it work. 

 

SG – Monta Ellis

George Hill and Stuckey are OUT tonight.  Monta Ellis will take over at point guard.  Last week, if it was the same situation, I wouldn’t have suggested Ellis because his shooting was TERRIBLE.  Now, he looks like he is regaining his old form and should see 35 minutes tonight against Rose.  Ellis might FILL UP the stat sheet tonight, hes going to have the opportunity to put up numbers, you just have to PRAY he finds his stroke early.  This is a true boom or bust play, but since he is priced middle of the road, and has the POTENTIAL to match Jimmy Butler’s numbers tonight, at 2/3’s the price, it might be worth it.

 

SF- Jeff Green

I know, this one isn’t very “Sneaky”.  Green has earned himself a place in the starting rotation.  He has a MONEY matchup tonight because OKC can not stop the SG’s or SF’s.  The last 2 games Green has score over 30 fantasy points each time.  He is still bottom of the barrel price, I don’t love the SF position tonight (Other than George), if you’re gonna punt, Green gives you price relief, with the potential of still getting you somewhere around 30 points.  He’s going to be highly owned, but its silly NOT to put him in there at his price.  Let the others get cute and fade him.

PF- Terrence Jones

Jones TORE IT UP Saturday with 26 pts, 1 stl, 1 assist, 3 blocks in 40 minutes.  His price is still mid-range and I love his matchup tonight.   Vegas say’s Houston scores a lot of points tonight, and I expect a decent chunk of that to come from Jones.  He will go up against Amir Johnson, or Sullinger, regardless, neither of them can play defense.  I would LOVE to see what Jones can do if he can get 35 minutes tonight.  After looking at everyone else’s predictions, apparently I’m the only one who thinks he has a monster game tonight, but I have to go with my numbers and predictions, I think Jones finishes in the Top 3 at PF when all is said and done.  I can’t talk myself out of it.

 

C – Ian Mahinmi

This guy is cheap, and has a GREAT matchup.  Indiana is thin tonight, and I think The Pacers will pick on Noah and Gasol’s inability to stop anyone.  The Bulls SUCK at rebounding, and opposing Centers have beat them up all season long(and last season too).   I think Mahinmi gets a double-double tonight if he can stay on the court for over 27 minutes.  At that price, that’s HUGE value.  Howard is the expensive guy to own, Zaza is the mid range, and Big Ian is the top “Value” play.

15 NBA DFS Predictions

        Meyers Leonard probably won’t tonight, get Moe Harkless in there CHEAP

            Marc Gasol probably won’t play tonight, go contrarian and play JyMychal Green, not Wright in big GPPs

            In the OKC game, Durant returns more points per dollar than Westbrook tonight

Pau Gasol is a value tonight

Rubio will score close to 40 Fantasy points tonight

Andrew Wiggins is a sneaky play, he hasn’t produced YET, but his MPG and Usage rate are sky high

Deron Williams out produces Conley and Rose tonight. 

Marvin Williams is STILL a value even though his price has risen slightly

Dirk scores 35 Fantasy Points tonight

Alec Burks is the best value at SG tonight

Gobert is hands down the best Center of the night

Nobody on Denver is worth starting tonight………….nobody

Lillard’s numbers are A LOT closer to Westbrooks numbers than price suggests.  Take the value

Z-Bo has a 15-15 Double-Double tonight.

Mudiay scores 30 Fantasy Points tonight

 

 

WEEK 9 QB’S

Tom Brady- Brady should be the top scoring QB this week.  This is NOT a great week for QB’s, and in situations like this, there are really only a few safe ways to go, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben.  On paper, this matchup is NOT as easy as The Miami game last week.  The Skins only give up 232 YPG and have given up 11 passing TD’s.  Washington is worse VS the run averaging 128 YPG but only 4 TD’s.  I think Brady will throw 3 or 4 TD’s, but will be held to around 300-320 yards.  I like pairing him up with Lewis this week after seeing what Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman has done to this squad in the past couple weeks.   The lack of rushing TD’s makes me like Gronk as well.  On paper, The Skins have been pretty good against opposing TE’s, but Its Gronk and Brady, at home.  Don’t over think it.  As always, Edelman is as solid as a WR you can possibly roll with.

 

Phillip Rivers-  Monday night football, Prime Time, at home, Rivers will light up the Bears D.  The Bears have given up 16 passing TD’s this year and only 2 rushing TD’s.  Melvin Gordon doesn’t even factor in the equation anymore.  The Chargers will score, and it will be through the air.  I LOVE Malcolm Floyd this week especially since Allen is done for the season.  Stevie Johnson is cheap and should get over 7 targets.  Watch the status of Gates, but I like Green regardless if Gates is a go.  My only concern is a BLOW OUT factor (The Pats game could be the same)  If The Chargers are up by 27 points in the 3^rd quarter, they might just start juicing the clock and keeping the ball on the ground.  If they can keep it close, Rivers COULD out-produce Brady this week.    The Rivers/ Floyd/ Green stack is A LOT cheaper than Brady/Gronk/ Edelman !!!

 

Dave Carr-  You gotta throw ONE lottery ticket in there, why not Carr?  Carr had a very productive game against SD two weeks ago and DESTROYED The Jets throwing for 333 Yards and 4 TD’s with no picks (If you say You saw that one coming, you are a “Liar”)  Pittsburgh is in the bottom 3^rd for pass defense, and can be scored on.  I don’t trust Lat Murray, so I think Carr is going to throw in this game.  I also expect Pittsburgh to score, so we are talking a possible shoot out or throwing 40 times because they are playing from behind.  Carr/ Crabtree/ Cooper is my SNEAKY STACK of Week 9.  

NBA VALUE PLAYS 11/3

I feel like everyone gets together and tells each other in the industry their “Value Plays” for that night and the same 5 people give you the same 3 or 4 players.  Well, I will skip Morris, and Cauley-Stein and Hibbert, I will try to give you some SNEAKIER plays that hopefully the others might miss.

 

My top Value Play tonight is going to be Evan Fournier.  He is really cheap, and the beauty is he has averaged 35 MPG the past 3 games.  He will face a BEAT UP Pelicans squad and should see 30 minutes of action tonight.  Anytime you can find a player who is more than half the price of the big $$ guys, who plays 30 minutes, It’s a value.  Fournier has also averaged 30 fantasy points the last two games, if  you want to put Drummond and The Brow in your lineup tonight (you should), put Fournier in your Guard spot of flex.  If he can get you close to 30 points at his current price, you are golden. 

I also like Matt Barnes tonight. Memphis got SMOKED last night, and they traveled today to play against a Kings team that sucks on defense.  Barnes is pretty hit or miss, and he will never get you 40 points, but if he can see 22 minutes of action tonight, and get you 20-25 fantasy points, he is an extreme value.

Jameer Nelson will be on the floor for 23-27 minutes against a Lakers squad who has been terrible against opposing PG’s for the past 3 years.  Nelson is a veteran who can get steals, points, assists and even rebounds.  PG isn’t wonderful tonight anyway, save at PG and spend like crazy on your bigs tonight.  I think Nelson nets 30 fantasy points tonight. 

WEEK 8

QB’s

Top Shelf

Matt Ryan-  I always like Matty Ice at home, especially after putting up a stinker last week against The Titans.  He has a tasty matchup this week as well with The Bucs.  Last week The Bucs secondary gave up 317 yards and 3 TD’s to Kirk Cousins.  Tampa D actually only gives up 220 yards per game against opposing QB’s BUT they have given up 15 passing TD’s so far.  Vegas says The Falcons score 28 points in this one, and I agree.  Julio is primed for a monster this week.  Devonta Freeman might have a field day with these guys as well, just cross your fingers and hope he gets in the end zone from a few dump off passes from Ryan. 

 

Mid Range

Phil Rivers-  I’m not sure if Rivers is actually going to be as highly owned as he should be this week because Carson Palmer didn’t light up this Ravens Secondary Monday Night.  Regardless, Rivers is a great play and Baltimore’s Secondary is pure garbage.  There is a high Over Under in this game and it could be a real shootout.  The other reason I like Rivers is the emergence of Woodhead the past couple of games.  Melvin Gordon is NOT getting the job done, and Woodhead is going to get 8-12 balls thrown his way.  Rivers probability of getting touchdowns is huge in this game, and it wouldn’t shock me if he was the Top Scoring QB of Week 8.  I like pairing him with a cheap Malcolm Floyd as well for a sneaky mini stack. 

 

Bottom of the Barrel 

Ryan Fitzpatrick-  Really only for GPP’s.  If you want to get Lev Bell and Julio Jones in your lineup this week, you need a lottery ticket at QB.  Fitzpatrick has a good matchup against The Raiders this week.   Raiders have a terrible pass defense but a pretty good run defense believe it or not.  Rodgers has a brutal matchup, as does Luck.  Palmer didn’t look spectacular last week, I think Carolina attacks with Stewart, Brees hasn’t done anything this year, we don’t know how healthy Big Ben is, and Eli can always throw 4 interceptions.  Now that Brady isn’t an option, there isn’t really a no brainer, “Slam Dunk” QB going this week.  Fitzpatrick is cheap, and it seems like every year he has ONE outstanding game, maybe this is it?  Watch Decker’s status, and if he is a no-go, Brandon Marshall becomes a MUST START for me.  I will be ballsy and say Fitzpatrick throws 289 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT.  It’s not out of the question, you have to get courageous to win one of these HUGE tourneys, maybe The Amish Assassin is the answer…………..

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Saints at Colts

52 PTS  Colts -4

Biggest over under on the board.  I HATE this game!  Trying to predict where these points are going to come from, makes this  the hardest game this week for me.  Saints Run Defense stinks, but with so many other options on the board with better matchups, I can’t suggest Gore, even though he has looked better (not great) the past couple of games.  I still don’t know how healthy Luck is, and his targets are all over the place, it could be Hilton, Moncrief, or even Andre Johnson.  I have to go with Moncrief, because I think he has the best matchup, but he has only had 1 GOOD game this season, so hes not a must start by any means.  If you want to throw Luck in there, and you want to pair him with one of the three WR’s, Moncrief is the guy.

I actually think Brees and the Saints have a good game here and come out with the win.  The Saints running game is a headache, and Ingram looked like crap last week, and The Colts secondary is where they are weakest.  I will ride the hot hand and go with a nice value in Snead and if you’re looking for a cheap TE option Ben Watson could be a miracle.  He looked RIDICULOUS last week, and Brees seemed very comfortable using him as the main weapon.  If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, I could see Watson getting 10 targets this game.  Because Brees hasn’t wowed anyone this year, I don’t think he will be highly owned, and Brees fans like to play Brees only when he is home.  I’m gonna make The Brees/Watson/Snead combo my Sneaky Stack of Week 7.  This should also give you plenty of $$ to get Gurley and Freeman in there.

Colts 27

Saints 34

 

Atlanta at Titans

47 Points  Atlanta -6

Devonta Freeman, he can’t do it AGAIN, can he?  There is no doubt he is a talented kid, but he looks like a combo of Larry Johnson, Tomlinson, and Faulk in their primes.  He HAS to come back to earth at some point.  BUT, in DFS, you have to ride the wave until it crashes.  In this matchup, just looking at stats, FREEMAN IS THE PLAY, regardless of what he has done the past 3 weeks.  The Titans give up 130 yards per game on the ground which is bottom 5 in the NFL.  Lamar Miller averaged 5.9 YPC last week against this run defense, Freeman is twice as good as Miller.  The Titans are also #1 in The NFL for passing yards given up per game at just 184.  The #1 Pass D (technically but not REALLY), paired with Matt Ryan on the road and Julio Jones still not 100% healthy leads me to believe that Freeman keeps it going this week, and has another MONSTER game.  Vegas says they score 27 points, stats say the bulk of that production comes from the run game, even though he’s expensive, I gotta roll with him.  I KNOW it’s going to be widely used but the Gurley/Freeman 1-2 punch is just too good to pass up this week, if you want to get cute and fade these guys, have at it, but I am suggesting that it’s not a good idea.  If you want to go contrarian, do it with your WR’s this week, I don’t think any of the top $$ guys are going to be a value.  Let everyone else make the mistake. 

If you’ve watched the past couple weeks, you know not to touch The Titans Offense, anywhere.  I said Bishop Sankey was a lottery ticket last week, and he was, a LOSING lottery ticket.  My fantasy relationship has ended with this guy, I’m ALL DONE.  Never again……………..dick.  

Atlanta 28

Titans    16

Tampa at Washington

42.5 PTS  Skins-3.5

The Skins defensive stats were pretty decent through Week 4, perhaps they’ve turned the corner and are shaping up…….nope.   Week 5 Devonta Freeman HOUSED them for 200 yards, and last week Chris Ivory pillaged them for 146 yards, a TD, and an astounding 7.3 YPC.  The Bucs are fresh, coming off a bye week, and since I have zero faith in Winston as a legit starting QB in The NFL, I’m going with Doug THE THUG Martin.  In Week 5 Martin racked up 158 total yards, 3 receptions, 3 TD’s, and averaged 5.1 YPC.  He has a great matchup, BUT it’s Doug Martin.  Chances are Martin has burned you before in DFS or Season Long formats.  He is either top notch, or bottom of the barrel.  I like Martin in GPPs, but his inconsistency will keep him out of my Head to Heads and 50/50’s.  If he looks shitty early, Simms will take over, that is always the game plan in Tampa. 

The Redskins are a DISASTER offensively.  Alf Morris is not only un-usable for DFS purposes, he is borderline un-ownable in Season Long.  Matt Jones can produce, but I don’t think the coaching staff is ready to completely pull the plug on Morris, but it’s coming.  The Redskin I might toss in some lineups is Crowder.  Desean Jackson has already been ruled out, and Crowder has stepped in nicely for him in his absence.  Tampa Secondary is far worse than their Run D, and if, and when, Washington scores, it will be through the air.  In Week 6 The Bucs gave up 3 Td’s to The Allen Robinson/ Hurns combo.  Crowder is one of my Top Value Plays at WR for Week 7.

Tampa Bay 30

Washington 17

Jets at Pats

49 PTS  Pats -9.5

Call me crazy, but I’m going to skip this game.  Brady hasn’t played great in his career against The Jets.  Jets Defense looks good.  I don’t think this is a 9 point game, and I don’t think this game goes near 49 points.   Brady won’t be terrible, he never is, but 370 and 3 is going to be tough this week.  This game could go a bunch of different ways, and I don’t think the risk is worth the reward in this situation.  The only play I am interested in is Danny Amendola.   He is almost Minimum price, and he really looked awesome last week after Edelman mangled his finger.  If Edelman’s finger impedes his ability to make catches (which it did last week), Amendola is next in line in that role.  Danny Amendola is my Value Deep Sleeper Lottery Ticket of Week 7.

Houston at Miami

43 PTS Miami-3

Miami D looked good last week!  Problem is they played against The Titans who have one of the worst offenses in The NFL.  Previous to last week, Dolphins D was horseshit.  I think Houston wins this game, and puts up 27 points on The Dolphins.  Arian Foster has looked good the last two weeks, and since Miami has the second worst run defense in the NFL, I will make Arian Foster my top play for top tier RB’s this week.  He is priced with AP, Bell and Freeman, and has a good chance to outperform Bell and AP ( I can’t go against Freeman for a 4^th Week in a row, it has made me look like a complete chump).  The Dolphins give up passing TD’s as well, so I like Hoyer as a good value play at QB and Hopkins as a top WR.

Lamar Miller had a good game last week, if you believe in him, play him.  I personally do NOT believe in him and he won’t be in any of my lineups this week, or ever.  I like Jarvis Landry as a SAFE WR this week and should get close to 100 yards, 6 receptions, and a TD.

Dolphins 20  Houston 27

Cleveland at Rams

42 Pts Rams -6

Question:  Who SUCKS at stopping opposing RB’s?  Answer:  The Cleveland Browns.  The Browns give up an NFL WORST 150 YPG this season.  They’ve also given up 6 rushing TD’s, 8 rushes of 20 + yards, and 3 rushes of 40 + yards.  Ronnie Hillman averaged 5.6 YPC last week against The Browns………….RONNIE HILLMAN!!  How bout the week before?  Oh just Justin Forsett averaging 5.9 YPC, with a TD and a combined 160 yards, no big whoop.  MY TOP RB PLAY OF WEEK 7 IS TODD GURLEY.  The past two games Todd has rushed for an AMAZING 305 yards on 49 carries for 6.22 YPC, and that was away, versus Green Bay and Arizona who both have decent Defenses.  The best part is, Gurley is still CHEAP!  He will probably be owned in the 40% range but in actuality, he should be used in 90%.  This Rams offense is going to be centered around Gurley this week (and the rest of the season).   I like Gurley for 150 yards and 2 TD’s this week.   Gurley is 59% the price of Lev Bell this week, and could quite possibly outscore him.  GET HIM IN THERE IN ALL FORMATS  GPP’s, 50/50’s, and Head to Heads. 

I like Rams Defense at home, always.  Therefore, I will pass on each and every Browns player.  I do think Rams D is a good play this week.  If you play on a format with a kicker, use Legatron, and then go to www.draftdemons.com and sign up with us because we don’t use kickers, and you’re playing on the wrong site.  SILLY

 

WEEK 6

Washington at Jets

40 Pts  Jets -6

 

On paper, Washington has the 6^th BEST Defense in the NFL.  They give up 97.6 YPG on the ground, and 216 YPG through the air.  That’s pretty good, and far better than anyone expected going into the season.  Their weakness the past two weeks has been the receiving RB.  Devonta Freeman burned them for a combined 200 yards with a TD last week, and the Eagles running game netted a 150 yards combined in Week 4.  This might be a nice game for Chris Ivory.  Ivory is coming off a monster game in Week 4 against Miami where he totaled 166 yards and a TD.  Ivory has looked pretty solid all year long when healthy.  I’m not ALL IN this week on Ivory, I don’t think he gets 150 and a TD like he did last game.  The Redskins Run Defense is better than the pathetic Miami Run D.  Ivory is a safe bet for 85 yards and a TD, I think he’s a better play in your 50/50’s than he is in a GPP. Decker or Marshall should have a fairly productive game as well.  The Skins shutdown Julio last week and Matthews in Week 4, so I don’t expect HUGE production from these guys.  Gun to my head, I’ll take the cheaper of the two and roll with Decker and hope he gets you 7 or receptions plus the yards.

 Gun to my head on The Skins offensive players?  Shoot me.  

 

 

Arizona at Pittsburgh

44.5 PTS Arizona -3

Trap Game.  I don’t buy it.  I don’t see Arizona scoring this many points in Pittsburgh.  I think Arizona is overrated, I think Palmer and company are over performing.  Palmers career QB rating against Pittsburgh 78.8 with 20 TD’s and 12 INT’s in 13 games, well below his career average.  Palmer and Fitz are too expensive this week to return their value in this situation.  I can never really tell which Steelers D will show up week to week.  Last week Rivers shredded them, but they stuffed the run.  Week 4, Forsett shredded them and they did a good job containing Flacco.  The week before, they looked great against ST Louis.  There are too many BETTER games this week to make a more accurate prediction with.  I don’t think the big players will come from Arizona. 

There is no point bringing up Vick or any Steelers WR’s, if you watched last week.  Vick looked like crap, didn’t even run, and was one good 40 yard pass away from basically getting a ZERO.  Because he is so inconsistent, and such a question mark, Bryant, Brown and Miller are taken out of the equation.  Pittsburgh will score, and It’s gotta come from THE MAN, Lev Bell.  Bell is good for 20 points every week, and this week should be no different.  2 weeks ago Gurley ran straight through this same Arizona D line, and Bell should do the same.  I like Bell in 50/50’s, head to Heads, AND GPP’s this week.  Bell should end up the top RB of Week 6

 

 

Denver at Cleveland

42.5 PTS, Denver-4

Confusing game.  Peyton Manning has looked so weak and bad this season I can’t base any of my lineups using him or his receiving core.  If Manning stinks, unfortunately so does Thomas and Sanders.  Speaking of sucking, the Browns Defense is horrid, especially their run D.  MAYBE, this is the week CJ Anderson gets his act together.  Nothing points to this happening, but The Browns have stopped NOBODY thus far.  I am not a Hillman supporter, if Anderson wasn’t so bad, Hillman would see 3-5 touches a game.  If you want a REALLY RISKY GPP play this week, throw Anderson in for DIRT CHEAP and cross your fingers.  It is quite possible he continues to get his 2.8 YPC and nets you 4 or 5 points, BUT he was really good last year, maybe he wakes up and shreds this defense.  He is so cheap that the risk is worth the reward, again, this is not safe, but it’s tough to beat a couple 100 thousand other lineups, this is the kind of play that can do it, it takes balls to win a million………..

Denvers D is good, really good, I’m not getting cute and throwing Barnidge or Johnson, or Benjamin in there.

 

 

Bengals at Bills

43.5 PTS  Bengals-3

Bills Defensive line is good, this doesn’t favor Jeremy Hill at all.  Gio Bernard could catch 8-10 balls out of the back field and find the end zone once or twice.  I like Gio a lot this week, but won’t use him in my head to heads or 50/50’s just in case Hill gets an even split with him.  I think The Bills secondary is good, and getting better each week, I ‘m not playing Dalton or AJ Green because of their prices.  I DO think Marvin Jones or Sanu will have a really nice game this week.  It’s kind of a coin flip who will get more targets and be more productive but I will use my Miss Cleo powers to tell you it will be………………………….Sanu.  Sanu is cheap, and has gone off in the past.  If you’re looking for a CHEAP WR, that won’t be highly owned, and has a good matchup, Sanu is a fit.  Sanu will be one of my Week 6 Value Sleeper Picks. 

The Bills are banged up, I think Bengals Defense is good.  I want ZERO to do with The Bills offense this week.  IF EJ Manuel starts at QB this week, The Bengals Defense becomes my favorite Defense of the week.  Check Sunday morning around 11:00 am, I think Taylor is heading for a game time decision. 

 

KC at Vikings

44 PTS Vikings -3.5

I kind of like this game for fantasy purposes.  Charles is obviously out, I want nothing to do with the KC run game.  I don’t have faith in either guy, and neither of them will win you any $$ this week.  Kelce should get a few more targets but The Vikings Pass Defense has been OK this year.  I think Maclin is the safest play from The Chiefs side.  Maclin will get more targets without Charles, and he is in for another SOLID game, I don’t think he’s going to have the best game of the season, but he is always good for 7 for 100 and maybe a TD.  I like Maclin a lot in my 50/50’s and head to heads because of the volume he will see.

My NOT SAFE BALLSY BIG UPSIDE LOTTERY TICKET Pick Of The Week is Teddy Bridgewater.  Kc is TERRIBLE against the pass, they look worse every week.  The Chiefs give up 284 YPG and have given up a vomit inducing 13 TD’s this year.  Bridgewater is going to break your heart this week or make you rich.  The Vikings are coming off a bye, it’s a home game, KC Pass D is Swiss Cheese, Bridgewater is very inexpensive, I think Teddy will be this week’s Blake Bortles.  I also love Adrian Peterson this week, he is rested, The Vikings base their offense around him, AP will finish top 3 this week.  If Bridgewater goes nuts, he is going to have to throw the ball to someone other than AP, I’ m going with Rudolph.  Rudolph hasn’t done jack squat this year, and I think this is his breakout game.  I also like Mike Wallace if he plays, he is questionable right now, but had a good game last time The Vikings played.   My 3 Man Ballsy Stack of the week is Bridgewater, AP, Rudolph.

 

Houston at JAX

43 PTS  JAX -1

I would think this is going to be a high scoring game, but Vegas doesn’t think so.  I’m a bit hesitant to put too much stock in this game because of that reason.  After watching Doug the Thug Martin get 150 total yards and 3 TD’s last week against The Jags, I have to believe Arian Foster is in for decent game.  Foster looked good last week when he was catching balls, when just handed off, not so good.  If Foster plays the ENTIRE game, and STAYS HEALTHY, he is looking at a potential good game.  Hopkins and Hoyer had good chemistry last week, and I would use them if the Vegas line was higher. 

Like I say every week, either Allen Hurns or Allen Robinson will have a great week this week.  I will go with Robinson again, especially because Hurns has been on the injury report all week long.  I like pairing Bortles with Robinson, but I have to trust Vegas on this one.   Tj Yeldon is beat up, I will pass on him.  I do like Julius “The Touchdown Machine” Thomas this week as a somewhat sneaky TE. 

 

Chicago at Detroit

44 PTS Detroit -3

I do not like this game for fantasy purposes.  I want nothing to do with Cutler, and Jeffrey is such a question mark, it’s just not worth it.  I do think Forte is a SAFE play, I will put him in the Maclin category this week.  I don’t think he breaks any records this week, but he is good for 100 total yards and a TD.  Forte is a very nice, safe play for your 50/50’s and head to heads. 

I like The Lions Defense this week, especially at their current price.  The Bears can turn the ball over, and Special Teams TD’s are a common thing over the years in Detroit.  I have  a strange feeling Lions D is a top 3 scoring Defense this week, therefore they will be my Value Sleeper Defense of Week 6.  Who do I like from The Lions this week other than their defense……Barry Sanders!   I actually like Calvin Johnson to have a game here.  He is getting better each week, Bears Defense stinks, and I think Megatron has a legit shot at being a top 5 WR this week, he is overdue.

 

 

 

Miami at Titans

43.5 PTS Titans -2

This game opened up at 45 points and has gone down to 43.5.  45 points is huge for this matchup, and what that opening line leads me to believe is Vegas thinks The Titans are going to score in this game.   The Titans offense looked FAIRLY SHITTY last week against The Bills, but this is a different matchup.  The Bills D is better than Miami D.  Miami gives up 160 yards per game rushing.  To put that into perspective, The Falcons give up 78 yards per game.   If I could use my magical powers, I would make Dexter McCluster vanish.  He throws a wrench in the fantasy aspect of this game.  I REALLY want to put Bishop Sankey in some lineups, I might have to.  He is cheap, he has shown talent in the past, but also serious inconsistency as well.  I have no faith in The Titans passing game, and I think The Titans will attack this horseshit D line.  I will probably regret it, but my Lottery Ticket of Week 6 is Bishop Sankey.  If he has 7 carries for 36 yards don’t come bitching to me, he is a “Lottery Ticket”, but you need a play like this to win in a huge field tourney.

Are you considering playing Lamar Miller?  If you are, please get off my page.  Miller= Chump.  Jarvis Landry is a safe WR play, but the upside in this matchup doesn’t warrant me to play him this week in a GPP. 

Carolina at Seattle

41 Pts Seattle -5

The top two defenses in The NFL (my opinion) square off in Seattle.  I’m avoiding both teams and both Defenses this week.  Seattle has been bad against the TE, so Greg Olsen has the best odds of producing, but he is expensive, if you can afford him, toss him in there, but don’t shave anywhere to make this happen.  Doug Baldwin is cheap enough that he might make a decent flex play if he can get a few deep balls and maybe find the end zone once.  I love Cam Newton, but not this week. 

 

San Diego at Green Bay

50 PTS  Pack -10.5

Discovered by The Germans in 1904, they named it “San Diego”, which of course in German means “Shitty Run Defense”.  All you Edward Lacy people can finally celebrate, because I think he finally has a MONSTER game.  He looked like crap last week, and pretty much all season, but he is too talented to be this bad.  This is the big one for him, and because he is a lot cheaper than AP, Bell, and Foster, I think he’s a great play this week.  I DON’T think it’s a slam dunk.  The matchup is great, he has the potential to be great, but he could average 3 YPC like he has been doing recently, I just don’t see that happening.  Keep Lacy out of your 50/50’s and Head to Heads, but throw him into your GPP’s.  Green bay could dominate this game, and Rodgers might not have to throw in the 4^th, he will produce, but I don’t think this week’s $1,000,000 winning lineup will have Rodgers at the helm.  He’s safe, but  he is not my favorite QB this week for DFS purposes.  Adams is Questionable, and if he sits, I love James Jones in both 50/50’s and Tourneys.  I haven’t LOVED Cobb all season, and I won’t until he becomes a bit more reliable.

Packers Defense has been a pleasant surprise.  They look pretty legit.  I don’t like Gordon, Gates, or Rivers this week.  I do think taking a gamble on Mr. Boom or Bust Keenan Allen could be interesting.  Packers secondary isn’t bullet proof, and they have actually given up 5 plays of 40 + yards to WR’s this year, tied for 3^rd worst in the league.  Allen is expensive, but it wouldn’t shock me if they throw a few bombs to him in the first half trying to play catch up.  If he can haul them in, he could be a nice sneaky play. 

 

Baltimore at San Fran

44 PTS Baltimore – 2.5

Who likes to gamble?  There is nothing safe about this game.  Two crappy defenses, against two crappy offenses.  This game all depends on which Kaepernick shows up.  Kaepernick looked good against The Giants last week, and looked like the worst QB in NFL history the previous two.  If you want to show your balls, play Kaepernick and Boldin or Smith.  I like it.  It’s a gamble.  There is potential here, The Ravens SUCK against the pass, and maybe Kaepernick turned the corner.  Go for it, it’s not safe or technically “Smart”, but you have to take chances in this game.  I like Hyde as a nice SAFE play too.  Flacco could do the same thing, I think he or Kaepernick will have a great fantasy day, but it really is a true coin flip which guy, if any, performs.  If you play Flacco, pair him up with Aiken.  This could be a crazy 28-35 game. 

 

Pats at Colts

55 PTS Pats -9.5

I had a co-worker come up to me today and say “I think Tom Brady is a good QB option for DFS this week!”  Thanks, Dickhead!  I didn’t even think of that!  Brady will be the highest % owned QB this week, and rightfully so.  I’m not going to get into the Revenge factor, or any nonsense.  Brady will PROBABLY be the highest scoring QB this week, I think he is a safer option than Rodgers and still a great GPP play.  If Brady throws 375 and 4 TD’s, I wouldn’t even be impressed, it’s sad, but that’s kind of what he is expected to get this week.  Play Gronk, Edelman is probably my favorite WR this week on the board.  Dion Lewis is questionable, and if he doesn’t play, Blount is a MUST START. 

We don’t know how healthy Luck is, I’m not willing to gamble on him this week.  I will pass on every Colts player this week.  This could be 47-17 Pats. 

 

Giants at Eagles

49 PTS Eagles – 3.5

OBJ is banged up and heading for a game time decision.  You can’t play him because if he doesn’t go, you can’t really swap him out for an equal valued player.  Eli does not play well against the eagles and has a 3-2 TD to INT ratio career against them.  I think Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell will have good games especially if Beckham sits.  I want nothing to do with NY running game.  Because I think Eli throws two picks in this game, I like Eagles Defense.

Bradford has looked better, and I like the matchup, and he could be a top 5 QB this week, he’s cheap and makes for a really nice value.  Jordan Matthews has to show me a bit more before I pay up for him.  I am still not a Demarco Murray believer, and I will pass on him as well.  If you want to punt on TE this week, there are worse options than Ertz.

 

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WEEK 5

Bears at KC

44.5 PTS, Bears -9

The two worst Defenses in the NFL square off here,  both have looked HORRIBLE so far this year.  These two teams have given up an ASTOUNDING 31 combined touchdowns.  This could be a fantasy scoring bonanza!  I like KC Offense a hell of a lot more than I like The Bears.  Bears have given up 10 receiving TD’s, and I think Alex Smith will have a god game here.  This is not the same Alex Smith and Chiefs Offense we saw last year.  Smith has averaged nearly 340 passing yards the past 2 games and with an average of 145 yards going to Jeremy Maclin.  Maclin has been targeted 40 times through 4 games this season, and his chemistry with Smith gets better every game.  Maclin is probably my favorite WR this week because I think he will put up Julio Jones production at a great price reduction.  I think it’s very possible that Maclin gets 11 receptions for 135 yards and 2 TD’s.  The Smith/ Maclin combo is my favorite to picks of this game, but Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles also are primed for production this week as well.  Charles is expensive, but the man is a horse, and should be able to eclipse 125 total yards with at least a TD, The Bears Defense shut down Latavius Murray last week, but Charles is a far superior running back.  The problem with Maclin’s increased production is it has hurt Kelce’s numbers a little.  I would play one or the other, but not both.  I think both Kelce and Charles are SAFE plays in this matchup. 

KC seems to be weak in their secondary, problem is, that means you have to have faith in Jay Cutler.  If you do have faith in him, you should play him.  I do not have any faith in him, and I will not own him anywhere this week.  Matt Forte will have a productive game, he always does, but his price tag is just slightly too high for me to anchor a squad around him.  If Jeffrey doesn’t play, I like Royal as a nice cheap play.  He has benefitted nicely with Jeffrey’s absence.

 

Seattle at Cinci

43 PTS, Cinci -3

I kind of hate this entire game for fantasy purposes.  The Bengals offense has looked really solid, but The Seahwaks Defense has looked REALLY good the past two weeks now that they are at full strength.  The Seahawks don’t really have a weakness, I don’t feel comfortable playing Dalton, or Green at their price points.  Hill is boom or bust, and has a bad matchup.  If you feel the NEED to get one Bengal in your lineup, I think Gio Bernard will offer you’re the best bang for your buck.  He is still cheap and has been getting more action than Hill. 

The Bengals defense has been really good against the run, I like their defense at home.  Wilson hasn’t looked spectacular yet from a fantasy perspective, and I just don’t like the matchup.  I’m going to skip this entire game and hope for 16-20 finish. 

 

Washington at Atlanta

48 Points  Atlanta -7

This is not as cut and dry as I thought this matchup would be looking at the schedule back at Week 1.  According to the stats (and not logic), Washington’s Defense is ……..good?   Their rushing defense is actually second best in The NFL right now, and their passing Defense is top 10.  I don’t think The Falcons score 48 points this week like they did last week.  I also don’t think Freeman scores another 3 touchdowns, like he has the past 2 weeks, against this defense.  Technically, The Skins really only shut down Lamar Miller, Tre Mason, Rashard Jennings and Murray/ Ryan Mathews, so it hasn’t REALLY been proven that this run D is that great.  BUT, since Freemans is now so expensive, AND I think his ownership will still be sky high, I will not be playing him this week.  (On a side note, my choice NOT to play Freeman last week, and play Latavius Murray in his place, across the board, cost me legit $1,000’s of dollars in lost winnings.)   Matt Ryan should have a productive game, but isn’t one of my top 3 QB’s this week.  Julio Jones had dud last week, but it wasn’t his fault.  The Falcons crushed The Texans early and often and there was no need to utilize or jeopardize their best weapon in this situation.   Julio should go right back to what he does best this week, 10 grabs, for 115 yards and a TD.  If you’ve got the extra salary, it’s never a BAD idea to use Julio as your WR 1, and I have no problem with doing that again this week.  The SNEAKY play in this game, and one of my favorite plays of the week is Leonard Hankerson.  Last 3 games “Hank the Tank “ (Copywritten, Draftdemon Oct, 2015) has 225 yards and 2 TD’s.  Why I really like Hank this week is because the past two weeks, Washington’s opposing WR 2’s have been the most productive.  Riley Cooper had a game against them in Week 4, and Ruben Randle went house on them in Week 3.  If that trend continues, Hankerson could be looking at over 100 yards and a TD or 2.  TOP WR VALUE PLAY WEEK 5, Leonard “Hank the Tank” Hankerson.

 

Jax at Tampa

42 PTS  TB-2.5

Another yucky game that I want very little to do with for Fantasy purposes.  Jacksonville stinks against The Pass, and is good versus the run.  Winston is worthless and Doug Martin is a now gross Ex-girlfriend who used to be hot.  EVERYBODY is all over Vincent Jackson this week!  He is his “favorite” receiver, and they have “good chemistry”!  He had ONE GOOD GAME.  He hasn’t done JACK SQUAT 75% of the rest of the season.  He will get targets this week, but if you think that 47 year old V-Jax will be a top 3 WR this week, you are wrong.  I’m not saying he will put up a zero, but let’s settle down, 6 for 80 yards is reasonable. 

Every week I pick Hurns, Allen Robinson has a game.  Every week I pick Robinson, Hurns has a game.  So, I’m going to TELL you Hurns this week (Which really means I’m saying Allen Robinson) for a decent flex option, one of them will over produce compared to their price, they have all season long.  This will be the FIRST WEEK I will be playing TJ Yeldon.  He has looked better and better each week, and last week hit the 100 yard mark for the first time in his young career.  Tampa D has given up 137 yards per game on the ground, and therefore…………TJ “The DJ” Yeldon is my TOP VALUE RUNNING BACK FOR WEEK 5

 

 

Saints at Philly

49.5 PTs  Philly – 4.5

This is a tough one for me.  I want to play Brees, and Ingram, but I can’t.  Brees isn’t quite 100%, I like this team better at home, Philly Run Defense has been decent, it’s just adding up to a “Pass on them” type of week.  I don’t think any of them will be terrible, I just feel like none of them have the best situation to over-perform enough to justify the risk in taking them.  Don’t sit Brees in your Season leagues,  just don’t pay up for him in Fantasy this week. 

The Saints stink against opposing Tight Ends, that seems to be their weakness.  Fells, Witten and especially Greg Olsen have had really nice fantasy games against this Saints Defense.  Problem is, Philly hasn’t been using their TE’s very much at all.  Brent Celek has 2 Receptions this SEASON, Zack Ertz is utilized more in the passing game, but not by much.  One of these guys will get a TD this week, and I’ll take the guy who gets more targets, Zack Ertz is my DEEP SLEEPER TE OF WEEK 5.  Other than that, Sam Bradford could be a nice lottery ticket, and Jordan Matthews is always safe to get targeted 8-10 times, and could have a nice fantasy day

 

Rams at Packers

45.5 PTS  Green Bay – 9

Vegas says Green Bay scores 3 or 4 td’s in this game.  I have to pick on The Rams shitty Run D in this one.  Week 2 Matt Jones torched them for 123 and 2 TD’s.  Week 3 Lev Bell had 132 total yards and 1 TD,  Last week David Johnson and Chris Johnson combined for 175 yards against them.   I think this will be the first week I will pay up for Ed Lacy.  He seems to finally be 100% healthy, he’s home, I don’t think The Pack will have to throw too much to win this game.  This has second half clock management written all over it.  I’m projecting Lacy to get 2 TD’s and over 115 yards this week.  Rodgers is the most expensive QB on the board, and he needs to basically throw over 375 and 3 TDs to out preform his price, and I don’t see that happening.    Cobb is always a very safe bet to get enough points to make it worth your while, and the Cobb/ Rodgers combo is a nice way to anchor your head to head or 50/50 tournaments. 

I think everyone is going all in on Gurley this week.  I will take the “Wait and See” approach.  He looked awful the first half last week, and looked like Walter Payton circa Tecmo Bowl in the second half.  Gurley is awesome, but he has only played 2 NFL games, lets no go crazy here.  He isn’t averaging 7.7 yards per carry for the rest of the season.  HE is a great value because he is so inexpensive, I don’t blame anyone playing him, just don’t be upset we he doesn’t score 40 points this week.  The Rams should be behind the majority of this game, and will have to throw it 30 plus times.  Tavon Austin is always a great lottery ticket , but he’s just that, a lottery ticket.  Throw Austin in some GPP’s, but don’t touch him with a head to head or 50/50.

 

Buffalo at Titans

42 PTS Titans-1

I’m not going to invest too much time or energy on this game, low over/under, I don’t have much faith in either Offense, and no real STUDS in this game.  I don’t think Watkins plays, Shady McCoy is already ruled out, Karlos Williams is questionable.  Boobies Dixon might get the start, good luck with that.  I like Charles Clay, again, this week.  Titans aren’t good VS the TE, and Taylor needs to throw it somewhere, and Clay is his favorite target.  Clay is my FAVORITE TE this week, that doesn’t mean he outscores Gronk, it just means I think he scores more fantasy points per dollar than Gronk or Graham does.  

On the Titans side of things, I’m going to roll the dice on Kendall Wright this week.  Buffalo’s pass Defense isn’t great, they also aren’t as bad as most make them out to be, but Wright could be in for a monster!  2 out of 3 games this season Wright has had big games, and I still think he is hands down the most talented receiver on this team.  I like the fact that Jake targeted him 12 times last game, and Wright is so inexpensive, he will be a top play of week 5 for me.  I’m not touching the Titans running game.

 

Arizona at Detroit

45 PTS Arizona -3

Detroit does NOT have a good defense, they don’t even really have a good aspect of any part of their defense.  They give up 271 YPG through the air and 111 YPG on the ground.  Carson Palmer has looked great and so Larry Fitzgerald so there’s only one thing to do, FADE THIS GAME.  I will be probably the only person to tell you not to play Palmer.  I think everyone is going to be all over Palmer and Fitzgerald this week, and I won’t be one of them.  You always have to pick one game, do the contrary, and don’t play any of them and hope for a low scoring event, this is going to be that game for me this week.  The Lions D looked better last week, they have momentum, and Palmer tends to throw a few more INT’s in Domes, and doesn’t have great numbers against Detroit in his career.  I’m going to assume that Fitz/Palmer are going to be owned in 20% of the lineups, and I will sit back and hope that they both underperform.  I want nothing to do with The Arizona backfield regardless. 

The only person on The Lions that I would even consider to play would be Calvin Johnson, but until Matt Stafford can show me some improvement, I will pass on him.  Edelman, K Allen, and Maclin are cheaper and I think will all out produce Megatron this week.   Because I think palmer will throw some picks, I think The Lions Defense is a ballsy sneaky play and should have really low ownership. 

 

Pats at Dallas

49.5 PTS  Pats-9.5

This is the game that there will be huge ownership on, and I WILL be part of the crowd.   Dallas Defense is TERRIBLE.  Pats are coming off a bye week, and The Pats score 35 points EASY this week.  Nobody has stopped The Patriots this season, and this game should be no different.  Last week Spiller and Ingram combined for 230 yards against The Cowboys.  In week 3, Devonta Freeman almost got 200 yards against them.  This game is SCREAMING Dion Lewis to me.  Lewis is cheap, and has had some monster fantasy games this season.  Blount will steal some touches from Lewis for sure, but these short passes to the RB has destroyed this Dallas D in the past 2 games.  Take the extra points with the PPR, and put Dion Lewis in your lineup and hope Coach Bill doesn’t do something dickey.  If you want to start Blount, instead of Lewis, I can understand that as well, but at the end of the day, I think Lewis outscores Blount.  Brady is a great play, and will quite possibly be the top QB, and if you’re deciding between Brady and Rodgers, Brady is the play.  If you can save money enough to put Gronk in as your TE, do it.  Edelman, is as safe as they come in a PPR format.  Any of these guys could have a game.  Gun to my head, I will do the three man stack of Brady/Gronk/Lewis and hope The Pats score 40 Plus points on them. 

I said it last week, and I will say it again, Randle is NOT a good RB, I think it’s a mistake to play him.  Forsett, Hyde, Lewis, Gio, and even Doug Martin are cheaper than Randle and I think will outperform him.  Witten will probably catch 8 balls and maybe find the end zone, so I have no problem using him as a flex or TE.  Other than that, nope. 

 

Denver at Oakland

43.5 PTS  Denver -4.5

Denver probably has the most impressive Defense in The NFL to date.  Since The Raiders decided to play like horseshit against a horseshit Chicago Defense last week and cost me a bunch of $$ and made me look like a complete dickhead, they are dead to me this week.   Up yours Latavius. 

Oakland Defense stinks, and the best options to score you some points will come from Thomas, Sanders, and Owen Daniels.  Manning still hasn’t shown me enough to anchor my DFS squad around him yet, so I won’t be taking him or putting Thomas AND Sanders in the same lineup.  Thomas looked really good last week, and I think he has a legit shot at being the best WR on the board for fantasy this week.  Sanders is Edelman in a different uniform, and is 100% solid, but won’t get you the 30 PLUS fantasy points you need to win a big one.  You have to shoot for the moon, and the reward could come from Thomas.  Because of Julio being a bit beat up, and OBJ kind of being hit or miss thus far, Thomas will be MY top WR of the week.  Barnidge and Bennett both had really good games against this Raiders D the past two weeks, and I think Owen Daniels will score a TD this week.  He is DIRT cheap, and even if he goes 4 receptions, for 35 yards and a TD, he will be a great value play. 

 

San Fran at Giants

43 PTS Giants-7

If you’ve read my blog in the past, it’s no secret to you that I am not an Eli Manning guy.  He hasn’t looked spectacular the past two weeks from a fantasy stand point, even though he lead The Giants to back to back wins.  He only threw for 212 yards against The Bills last week, and completed a crappy 20/35.  He’s at home this week, and San Fran secondary has been pathetic.  BUT The Niners D held The packers to under 300 yards last week and Palmer threw it for 311 with 2 TD’s the week before.   The Arizona and Green Bay offense is better than The Giants, so I don’t think it’s a lock that The Giants net 500 yards this week.  Eli will produce, but just won’t be a top 5 QB in my opinion.  Beckham JR hasn’t looked ridiculous lately, and I can’t justify using him seeing that he is the second most expensive WR on the board.   Larry Donnell has been seeing a fair amount of targets, and makes for a great value play at TE.  Rashard Jennings was one play away from being an absolute ZERO last week like he has been all season, no thanks.

Kaepernick is bad, really, really bad.  I have no idea what is going on with him right now.  He has thrown 5 INT’s and a combined 220 yards the past two games.  This 49ers team is a disgusting mess right now.  Their offense is so shitty, I want nothing to do with Hyde until they can figure some stuff out.  BECAUSE their offense is so bad, THE GIANTS DEFENSE is my D of the week.  This isn’t sneaky or cute, 35% of the country or more will have The Giants as their Defense this week, me included. 

Pittsburgh at San Diego

45.5 PTS San Diego -3

FAVORITE GAME OF THE WEEK.  It’s not often that my favorite game of the week happens to be the Monday Night game.  It adds a little excitement when you have a good lineup after the Sunday night game and still have 3 or 4 guys still going the next night.  I think this game goes OVER 45.5 and will produce some fantasy studs.  My favorite RB of the week and my top overall play is Lev Bell.  Bell looked GREAT against Baltimore last week and GREAT against St Louis the week before.  Lev Bell is the best FANTASY player in all of football.  San Diego SUCKS against the run.  Bell could get combined 175 yards and 2 TD’s Monday Night.  He will be used early at often.  Mike Vick is also one of my top VALUE PLAYS at QB this week.  He made some really nice passes last week, and is still a very capable and talented NFL QB.  He is incredibly cheap, and I’m calling for 2 passing TD’s and 1 running TD.  At his price, he could really return some serious value

I also like Rivers and Keenan Allen this week as well.  Steelers Secondary is weak, and Rivers has been a yardage monster recently, with the majority of those yards going to Allen.  I think it’s going to be a fast paced high scoring game and Rivers/Allen will be busy and productive for four quarters.  Don’t sleep on Ladarius Green either, Gates is back, but isn’t getting 12-15 targets right out of the gate.  Green is a talent and should see more action than Gates.  I think the Maclin, Wright, Allen WR combo could make you a very happy and successful DFS player this week.  Good luck.  Play in our FREE $1,000,000 Perfect Lineup contest, try our Rapid Fire that everyone raves about, and get up to a $600 deposit match at www.draftdemons.com.  We are growing quickly for a reason.